cptcatz Posted Friday at 11:36 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:36 PM 5 hours ago, TampaMan said: So it's growing increasingly likely this will likely hit Florida? I don't follow the tropics like I did winter weather in the Mid-Atlantic. No. Anywhere from Atlantic Canada to the Mexican Gulf coast should be on alert for this potential storm that hasn't even splashed down from Africa yet. No one location should be on any higher alert than another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 11:38 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:38 PM 13 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said: MJO phase (whether inside or outside the circle) 1975-2024 Jul-Sep on day of 67 CONUS hurricane hits 1: 7 (10%) 2: 17 (25%) 3: 7 (10%) 4: 7 (10%) 5: 10 (15%) 6: 6 (9%) 7: 2 (3%) 8: 11 (16%) ——————— MJO phase (whether inside or outside the circle) 1975-2024 Jul-Sep on day of 23 CONUS MAJOR hurricane hits 1: 3 (13%) 2: 9 (39%) 3: 2 (9%) 4: 2 (9%) 5: 2 (9%) 6: 2 (9%) 7: 0 (0%) 8: 3 (13%) Analysis: When considering just MH hits, phase 2 has easily had the most hits of any one phase. You may wonder (and I wondered at first, myself) if that’s because there were far more days in phase 2 than any other phase during Jul-Sep 1975-2924. Answer: 16.8% or 1 in 6. So, it had somewhat more than an avg share, which is 12.5%. But that’s not nearly enough to fully explain the high phase 2 #s for MH. **Edited Conclusion: So, phase 2 really has had by a good margin the highest frequency of MH CONUS hits per days in that phase during Jul-Sep since 1975. Regarding all H when considering that phase 8 had only 10.1% of the days, phases 8 and 2 are neck and neck for the highest hit freq. per day. Phase 5 has the 3rd highest. Sources: I looked at the following sources and did the calculations: 1. MJO phase: http://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt 2. H classification/hit dates: NHC archives 3. For Katrina and Ian, I counted only the day of the more intense hit to determine MJO phase. For Andrew, both hits were during phase 6. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Saturday at 12:00 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 12:00 AM 26 minutes ago, GaWx said: MJO phase (whether inside or outside the circle) 1975-2024 Jul-Sep on day of 67 CONUS hurricane hits 1: 7 (10%) 2: 17 (25%) 3: 7 (10%) 4: 7 (10%) 5: 10 (15%) 6: 6 (9%) 7: 2 (3%) 8: 11 (16%) ——————— MJO phase (whether inside or outside the circle) 1975-2024 Jul-Sep on day of 23 CONUS MAJOR hurricane hits 1: 3 (13%) 2: 9 (39%) 3: 2 (9%) 4: 2 (9%) 5: 2 (9%) 6: 2 (9%) 7: 0 (0%) 8: 3 (13%) Analysis: Whether considering all US H hits or just MH hits, phase 2 has easily had the most hits of any one phase. You may wonder (and I wondered at first, myself) if that’s because there were far more days in phase 2 than any other phase during Jul-Sep 1975-2924. Answer: 16.8% or 1 in 6. So, it had somewhat more than an avg share, which is 12.5%. But that’s not nearly enough to fully explain the high phase 2 #s. Conclusion: So, phase 2 really has had by a good margin the highest frequency of H and especially MH CONUS hits per days in that phase during Jul-Sep since 1975. Sources: I looked at the following sources and did the calculations: 1. MJO phase: http://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt 2. H classification/hit dates: NHC archives 3. For Katrina and Ian, I counted only the day of the more intense hit to determine MJO phase. For Andrew, both hits were during phase 6. OT but I'm fucking laughing at the fact the phase 7 formation was a fucking 110kts major hurricane in this example A fucking 110kts major hurricane how the fuck does this happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Saturday at 12:20 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:20 AM 20 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: OT but I'm fucking laughing at the fact the phase 7 formation was a fucking 110kts major hurricane in this example A fucking 110kts major hurricane how the fuck does this happen My analysis had nothing to do with date of formation. It was strictly based on date of Conus landfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Saturday at 02:03 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 02:03 AM 1 hour ago, GaWx said: My analysis had nothing to do with date of formation. It was strictly based on date of Conus landfalls. K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted Saturday at 12:27 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:27 PM 15 hours ago, TampaMan said: So it's growing increasingly likely this will likely hit Florida? I don't follow the tropics like I did winter weather in the Mid-Atlantic. Yeah, I think we should begin evacuations now. Ecacuate where? Who cares?! Just evaciate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Saturday at 03:14 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 03:14 PM AFRICAAAAA BAM BAM BAM SCORE SAM FAKKIN GOALS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Posted Sunday at 12:43 AM Share Posted Sunday at 12:43 AM On 8/8/2025 at 8:00 PM, BarryStantonGBP said: OT but I'm fucking laughing at the fact the phase 7 formation was a fucking 110kts major hurricane in this example A fucking 110kts major hurricane how the fuck does this happen Maybe if you're more profane you'll get your answer. 5 4 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 02:10 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:10 AM 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted Sunday at 10:29 AM Share Posted Sunday at 10:29 AM 8 hours ago, MJO812 said: The new euro has this coming up and shifting nw into new England. Still early obviously but a retreating high is dangerous for anybody on the coast north of cape may nj,landfall could be from there anywhere up to cape cod,ma.?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Sunday at 05:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:36 PM I posted about this elsewhere, but I am modestly intrigued by the weak disturbance off the west coast of FL. Models do nothing with it, but it seems ideally positioned with an anti-cyclone overhead allowing for strong divergence and weak shear. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Sunday at 06:15 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 06:15 PM 38 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I posted about this elsewhere, but I am modestly intrigued by the weak disturbance off the west coast of FL. Models do nothing with it, but it seems ideally positioned with an anti-cyclone overhead allowing for strong divergence and weak shear. Won’t be surprised if this lil fella becomes a pop up The name fernand strikes me as a type to be a pop up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Sunday at 06:22 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 06:22 PM 45 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I posted about this elsewhere, but I am modestly intrigued by the weak disturbance off the west coast of FL. Models do nothing with it, but it seems ideally positioned with an anti-cyclone overhead allowing for strong divergence and weak shear. AND OF COURSE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Sunday at 08:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:35 PM I would definitely watch this feature. My friend that lives along a canal in Cape Coral just NW of Fort Myers says that the canal is up to the top and water rises of about 2-3 feet are common right now. Looks like weak shear environment or about to be soon and steering currents look like South-southeast to NNW towards the Florida Panhandle. Looks like the upper air low sitting on top of Houston Texas and a push westbound will be the main steering features right about now. Unrelated to this but the blocking up north is very evident. Everything is moving from Halifax Nova Scotia all the way to Chicago all the way north and south. That is quite the blocking signal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 04:27 AM Share Posted Monday at 04:27 AM 0Z UKMET for what may be first AEW behind 97L: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 16.0N 49.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 17.08.2025 156 17.0N 51.1W 1010 27 0000UTC 18.08.2025 168 18.4N 53.9W 1011 24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Monday at 02:37 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 02:37 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted yesterday at 06:02 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:02 PM The wave just off the coast of Africa has a lot of convection associated with it, but definitely no closed low, just an open wave. blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/df892e47-86d6-4518-a334-54707c0b57d5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago The latest Euro Weeklies are showing only 80% of ACE for 9/1-14, a big drop from the progged 400% for 8/18-24 due to Erin to ~1/2 the ACE for each of those weeks vs its 8/18-24 prog (likely MJO related). But then again, it’s 80% of the very active 2005-24 climo for near peak season. So, even if the 80% were to verify well, that would still mean an active period (even though not to the degree of the Erin week) and would end up way more active than for that period in 2024. Sep 1-14 of 2024 had only ~5-6 ACE, which is a mere <20% of the ~31 ACE avg for Sep 1-14 of 2005-24. Compare that to the EW’s 80% prog, which would be ~25 ACE for Sep 1-14 of 2025 or 4-5 times as high as 2024. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 3 minutes ago, GaWx said: The latest Euro Weeklies are showing only 80% of ACE for 9/1-14, a big drop from the progged 400% for 8/18-24 due to Erin to ~1/2 the ACE of its 8/18-24 prog (likely MJO related). But then again, it’s 80% of the very active 2005-24 climo for near peak season. So, even if the 80% were to verify well, that would still mean an active period (even though not to the degree of the Erin week) and would end up way more active than for that period in 2024. Sep 1-14 of 2024 had only ~5-6 ACE, which is a mere <20% of the ~31 ACE avg for Sep 1-14 of 2005-24. Compare that to the EW’s 80% prog, which would be ~25 ACE for Sep 1-14 of 2025 or 4-5 times as high as 2024. All for the bloody peak season energy to go into the EPAC what’s the point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 20 minutes ago, GaWx said: The latest Euro Weeklies are showing only 80% of ACE for 9/1-14, a big drop from the progged 400% for 8/18-24 due to Erin to ~1/2 the ACE of its 8/18-24 prog (likely MJO related). But then again, it’s 80% of the very active 2005-24 climo for near peak season. So, even if the 80% were to verify well, that would still mean an active period (even though not to the degree of the Erin week) and would end up way more active than for that period in 2024. Sep 1-14 of 2024 had only ~5-6 ACE, which is a mere <20% of the ~31 ACE avg for Sep 1-14 of 2005-24. Compare that to the EW’s 80% prog, which would be ~25 ACE for Sep 1-14 of 2025 or 4-5 times as high as 2024. How much NS would that be then just for housekeeping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 9 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: How much NS would that be then just for housekeeping I’m glad you asked because despite the 80% of 2005-24 avg ACE, it’s predicting ~3 NS for Sep 1-14. That’s actually slightly above the 2005-24 avg of 2.5 NS. That implies shorter tracks/possible W basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: I’m glad you asked because despite the 80% of 2005-24 avg ACE, it’s predicting ~3 NS for Sep 1-14. That’s actually slightly above the 2005-24 avg of 2.5 NS. That implies shorter tracks/possible W basin. How much ACE would that be between storms I give up. The funniest name wasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: How much ACE would that be between storms I give up. The funniest name wasted ~25 total ACE for those 3 progged storms, combined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, GaWx said: ~25 total ACE for those 3 progged storms, combined I give up The funniest name wasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 12Z UK: for several runs has had this after Erin: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 15.9N 24.3W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 20.08.2025 156 15.9N 24.3W 1010 28 1200UTC 20.08.2025 168 15.7N 28.1W 1009 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, GaWx said: 12Z UK: for several runs has had this after Erin: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 15.9N 24.3W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 20.08.2025 156 15.9N 24.3W 1010 28 1200UTC 20.08.2025 168 15.7N 28.1W 1009 32 Bro, does this mean the next 3 NS are likely weak? 51 minutes ago, GaWx said: ~25 total ACE for those 3 progged storms, combined I give up if the funniest name is wasted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago MJO forecast euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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