2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[cptcatz]

5 hours ago, TampaMan said:

So it's growing increasingly likely this will likely hit Florida? I don't follow the tropics like I did winter weather in the Mid-Atlantic. 

No. Anywhere from Atlantic Canada to the Mexican Gulf coast should be on alert for this potential storm that hasn't even splashed down from Africa yet. No one location should be on any higher alert than another. 

[GaWx]

13 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

 

MJO phase (whether inside or outside the circle) 1975-2024 Jul-Sep on day of 67 CONUS hurricane hits

1: 7 (10%)

2: 17 (25%)

3: 7 (10%)

4: 7 (10%)

5: 10 (15%)

6: 6 (9%)

7: 2 (3%)

8: 11 (16%)

———————

MJO phase (whether inside or outside the circle) 1975-2024 Jul-Sep on day of 23 CONUS MAJOR hurricane hits

1: 3 (13%)

2: 9 (39%)

3: 2 (9%)

4: 2 (9%)

5: 2 (9%)

6: 2 (9%)

7: 0 (0%)

8: 3 (13%)

Analysis: When considering just MH hits, phase 2 has easily had the most hits of any one phase. You may wonder (and I wondered at first, myself) if that’s because there were far more days in phase 2 than any other phase during Jul-Sep 1975-2924. Answer: 16.8% or 1 in 6. So, it had somewhat more than an avg share, which is 12.5%. But that’s not nearly enough to fully explain the high phase 2 #s for MH.

**Edited Conclusion: So, phase 2 really has had by a good margin the highest frequency of MH CONUS hits per days in that phase during Jul-Sep since 1975. Regarding all H when considering that phase 8 had only 10.1% of the days, phases 8 and 2 are neck and neck for the highest hit freq. per day. Phase 5 has the 3rd highest.

Sources: I looked at the following sources and did the calculations:

1. MJO phase: http://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

2. H classification/hit dates: NHC archives

3. For Katrina and Ian, I counted only the day of the more intense hit to determine MJO phase. For Andrew, both hits were during phase 6.

[BarryStantonGBP]

26 minutes ago, GaWx said:

MJO phase (whether inside or outside the circle) 1975-2024 Jul-Sep on day of 67 CONUS hurricane hits

1: 7 (10%)

2: 17 (25%)

3: 7 (10%)

4: 7 (10%)

5: 10 (15%)

6: 6 (9%)

7: 2 (3%)

8: 11 (16%)

———————

MJO phase (whether inside or outside the circle) 1975-2024 Jul-Sep on day of 23 CONUS MAJOR hurricane hits

1: 3 (13%)

2: 9 (39%)

3: 2 (9%)

4: 2 (9%)

5: 2 (9%)

6: 2 (9%)

7: 0 (0%)

8: 3 (13%)

Analysis: Whether considering all US H hits or just MH hits, phase 2 has easily had the most hits of any one phase. You may wonder (and I wondered at first, myself) if that’s because there were far more days in phase 2 than any other phase during Jul-Sep 1975-2924. Answer: 16.8% or 1 in 6. So, it had somewhat more than an avg share, which is 12.5%. But that’s not nearly enough to fully explain the high phase 2 #s.

Conclusion: So, phase 2 really has had by a good margin the highest frequency of H and especially MH CONUS hits per days in that phase during Jul-Sep since 1975.

Sources: I looked at the following sources and did the calculations:

1. MJO phase: http://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

2. H classification/hit dates: NHC archives

3. For Katrina and Ian, I counted only the day of the more intense hit to determine MJO phase. For Andrew, both hits were during phase 6.

OT but I'm fucking laughing at the fact the phase 7 formation was a fucking 110kts major hurricane in this example

A fucking 110kts major hurricane

how the fuck does this happen

 

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

OT but I'm fucking laughing at the fact the phase 7 formation was a fucking 110kts major hurricane in this example

A fucking 110kts major hurricane

how the fuck does this happen

 

My analysis had nothing to do with date of formation. It was strictly based on date of Conus landfalls.

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

My analysis had nothing to do with date of formation. It was strictly based on date of Conus landfalls.

K

[TriPol]

15 hours ago, TampaMan said:

So it's growing increasingly likely this will likely hit Florida? I don't follow the tropics like I did winter weather in the Mid-Atlantic. 

Yeah, I think we should begin evacuations now. Ecacuate where? Who cares?! Just evaciate!

[BarryStantonGBP]

AFRICAAAAA

BAM BAM BAM

SCORE SAM FAKKIN GOALS

[Monty]

On 8/8/2025 at 8:00 PM, BarryStantonGBP said:

OT but I'm fucking laughing at the fact the phase 7 formation was a fucking 110kts major hurricane in this example

A fucking 110kts major hurricane

how the fuck does this happen

 

Maybe if you're more profane you'll get your answer. 

[MJO812]

[Bxstormwatcher360]

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

The new euro has this coming up and shifting nw into new England. Still early obviously but a retreating high is dangerous for anybody on the coast north of cape may nj,landfall could be from there anywhere up to cape cod,ma.??

[WxWatcher007]

I posted about this elsewhere, but I am modestly intrigued by the weak disturbance off the west coast of FL. Models do nothing with it, but it seems ideally positioned with an anti-cyclone overhead allowing for strong divergence and weak shear. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

38 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I posted about this elsewhere, but I am modestly intrigued by the weak disturbance off the west coast of FL. Models do nothing with it, but it seems ideally positioned with an anti-cyclone overhead allowing for strong divergence and weak shear. 

Won’t be surprised if this lil fella becomes a pop up

The name fernand strikes me as a type to be a pop up

[BarryStantonGBP]

45 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I posted about this elsewhere, but I am modestly intrigued by the weak disturbance off the west coast of FL. Models do nothing with it, but it seems ideally positioned with an anti-cyclone overhead allowing for strong divergence and weak shear. 

AND OF COURSE

 

[Kevin Reilly]

I would definitely watch this feature.  My friend that lives along a canal in Cape Coral just NW of Fort Myers says that the canal is up to the top and water rises of about 2-3 feet are common right now.

Looks like weak shear environment or about to be soon and steering currents look like South-southeast to NNW towards the Florida Panhandle.  Looks like the upper air low sitting on top of Houston Texas and a push westbound will be the main steering features right about now. 

 

Unrelated to this but the blocking up north is very evident.  Everything is moving from Halifax Nova Scotia all the way to Chicago all the way north and south.  That is quite the blocking signal. 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET for what may be first AEW behind 97L:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 16.0N 49.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.08.2025 156 17.0N 51.1W 1010 27
0000UTC 18.08.2025 168 18.4N 53.9W 1011 24

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[Wannabehippie]

The wave just off the coast of Africa has a lot of convection associated with it, but definitely no closed low, just an open wave.

blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/df892e47-86d6-4518-a334-54707c0b57d5

[GaWx]

 The latest Euro Weeklies are showing only 80% of ACE for 9/1-14, a big drop from the progged 400% for 8/18-24 due to Erin to ~1/2 the ACE for each of those weeks vs its 8/18-24 prog (likely MJO related).

 But then again, it’s 80% of the very active 2005-24 climo for near peak season. So, even if the 80% were to verify well, that would still mean an active period (even though not to the degree of the Erin week) and would end up way more active than for that period in 2024. Sep 1-14 of 2024 had only ~5-6 ACE, which is a mere <20% of the ~31 ACE avg for Sep 1-14 of 2005-24. Compare that to the EW’s 80% prog, which would be ~25 ACE for Sep 1-14 of 2025 or 4-5 times as high as 2024.

[BarryStantonGBP]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The latest Euro Weeklies are showing only 80% of ACE for 9/1-14, a big drop from the progged 400% for 8/18-24 due to Erin to ~1/2 the ACE of its 8/18-24 prog (likely MJO related).

 But then again, it’s 80% of the very active 2005-24 climo for near peak season. So, even if the 80% were to verify well, that would still mean an active period (even though not to the degree of the Erin week) and would end up way more active than for that period in 2024. Sep 1-14 of 2024 had only ~5-6 ACE, which is a mere <20% of the ~31 ACE avg for Sep 1-14 of 2005-24. Compare that to the EW’s 80% prog, which would be ~25 ACE for Sep 1-14 of 2025 or 4-5 times as high as 2024.

All for the bloody peak season energy to go into the EPAC

what’s the point 

[BarryStantonGBP]

20 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The latest Euro Weeklies are showing only 80% of ACE for 9/1-14, a big drop from the progged 400% for 8/18-24 due to Erin to ~1/2 the ACE of its 8/18-24 prog (likely MJO related).

 But then again, it’s 80% of the very active 2005-24 climo for near peak season. So, even if the 80% were to verify well, that would still mean an active period (even though not to the degree of the Erin week) and would end up way more active than for that period in 2024. Sep 1-14 of 2024 had only ~5-6 ACE, which is a mere <20% of the ~31 ACE avg for Sep 1-14 of 2005-24. Compare that to the EW’s 80% prog, which would be ~25 ACE for Sep 1-14 of 2025 or 4-5 times as high as 2024.

How much NS would that be then 

just for housekeeping 

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

How much NS would that be then 

just for housekeeping 

I’m glad you asked because despite the 80% of 2005-24 avg ACE, it’s predicting ~3 NS for Sep 1-14. That’s actually slightly above the 2005-24 avg of 2.5 NS. That implies shorter tracks/possible W basin.

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I’m glad you asked because despite the 80% of 2005-24 avg ACE, it’s predicting ~3 NS for Sep 1-14. That’s actually slightly above the 2005-24 avg of 2.5 NS. That implies shorter tracks/possible W basin.

How much ACE would that be between storms 

I give up. The funniest name wasted

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

How much ACE would that be between storms 

I give up. The funniest name wasted

~25 total ACE for those 3 progged storms, combined

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

~25 total ACE for those 3 progged storms, combined

I give up

The funniest name wasted 

[GaWx]

12Z UK: for several runs has had this after Erin:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 15.9N 24.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.08.2025 156 15.9N 24.3W 1010 28
1200UTC 20.08.2025 168 15.7N 28.1W 1009 32

[BarryStantonGBP]

Just now, GaWx said:

12Z UK: for several runs has had this after Erin:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 15.9N 24.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.08.2025 156 15.9N 24.3W 1010 28
1200UTC 20.08.2025 168 15.7N 28.1W 1009 32

Bro, does this mean the next 3 NS are likely weak?

51 minutes ago, GaWx said:

~25 total ACE for those 3 progged storms, combined

I give up if the funniest name is wasted

[BarryStantonGBP]

MJO forecast euro

[BarryStantonGBP]

@GaWx

 

i wrote the dates in raw

thoughts?

 

Euro EMON:
11th - 16th August: Phase 2
18th - 30th August: Phase 3
30th - 31st August: Phase 2
1st - 12th September: Phase 1

Euro EMOM:
12th - 19th August: Phase 3
20th - 29th August: Phase 4
30th August - 12th September: Phase 2

BOM:
11th - 18th August: Phase 3
18th - 27th August: Phase 4
28th August - 9th September: Phase 2

NCFS:
12th - 17th August: Phase 2
18th - 22nd August: Phase 3
23rd August - 7th September: Phase 4
8th -11th September: Phase 3, 2, 1, 8