2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[cptcatz]

5 hours ago, TampaMan said:

So it's growing increasingly likely this will likely hit Florida? I don't follow the tropics like I did winter weather in the Mid-Atlantic. 

No. Anywhere from Atlantic Canada to the Mexican Gulf coast should be on alert for this potential storm that hasn't even splashed down from Africa yet. No one location should be on any higher alert than another. 

[GaWx]

13 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

 

MJO phase (whether inside or outside the circle) 1975-2024 Jul-Sep on day of 67 CONUS hurricane hits

1: 7 (10%)

2: 17 (25%)

3: 7 (10%)

4: 7 (10%)

5: 10 (15%)

6: 6 (9%)

7: 2 (3%)

8: 11 (16%)

———————

MJO phase (whether inside or outside the circle) 1975-2024 Jul-Sep on day of 23 CONUS MAJOR hurricane hits

1: 3 (13%)

2: 9 (39%)

3: 2 (9%)

4: 2 (9%)

5: 2 (9%)

6: 2 (9%)

7: 0 (0%)

8: 3 (13%)

Analysis: When considering just MH hits, phase 2 has easily had the most hits of any one phase. You may wonder (and I wondered at first, myself) if that’s because there were far more days in phase 2 than any other phase during Jul-Sep 1975-2924. Answer: 16.8% or 1 in 6. So, it had somewhat more than an avg share, which is 12.5%. But that’s not nearly enough to fully explain the high phase 2 #s for MH.

**Edited Conclusion: So, phase 2 really has had by a good margin the highest frequency of MH CONUS hits per days in that phase during Jul-Sep since 1975. Regarding all H when considering that phase 8 had only 10.1% of the days, phases 8 and 2 are neck and neck for the highest hit freq. per day. Phase 5 has the 3rd highest.

Sources: I looked at the following sources and did the calculations:

1. MJO phase: http://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

2. H classification/hit dates: NHC archives

3. For Katrina and Ian, I counted only the day of the more intense hit to determine MJO phase. For Andrew, both hits were during phase 6.

[BarryStantonGBP]

26 minutes ago, GaWx said:

MJO phase (whether inside or outside the circle) 1975-2024 Jul-Sep on day of 67 CONUS hurricane hits

1: 7 (10%)

2: 17 (25%)

3: 7 (10%)

4: 7 (10%)

5: 10 (15%)

6: 6 (9%)

7: 2 (3%)

8: 11 (16%)

———————

MJO phase (whether inside or outside the circle) 1975-2024 Jul-Sep on day of 23 CONUS MAJOR hurricane hits

1: 3 (13%)

2: 9 (39%)

3: 2 (9%)

4: 2 (9%)

5: 2 (9%)

6: 2 (9%)

7: 0 (0%)

8: 3 (13%)

Analysis: Whether considering all US H hits or just MH hits, phase 2 has easily had the most hits of any one phase. You may wonder (and I wondered at first, myself) if that’s because there were far more days in phase 2 than any other phase during Jul-Sep 1975-2924. Answer: 16.8% or 1 in 6. So, it had somewhat more than an avg share, which is 12.5%. But that’s not nearly enough to fully explain the high phase 2 #s.

Conclusion: So, phase 2 really has had by a good margin the highest frequency of H and especially MH CONUS hits per days in that phase during Jul-Sep since 1975.

Sources: I looked at the following sources and did the calculations:

1. MJO phase: http://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

2. H classification/hit dates: NHC archives

3. For Katrina and Ian, I counted only the day of the more intense hit to determine MJO phase. For Andrew, both hits were during phase 6.

OT but I'm fucking laughing at the fact the phase 7 formation was a fucking 110kts major hurricane in this example

A fucking 110kts major hurricane

how the fuck does this happen

 

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

OT but I'm fucking laughing at the fact the phase 7 formation was a fucking 110kts major hurricane in this example

A fucking 110kts major hurricane

how the fuck does this happen

 

My analysis had nothing to do with date of formation. It was strictly based on date of Conus landfalls.

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

My analysis had nothing to do with date of formation. It was strictly based on date of Conus landfalls.

K

[TriPol]

15 hours ago, TampaMan said:

So it's growing increasingly likely this will likely hit Florida? I don't follow the tropics like I did winter weather in the Mid-Atlantic. 

Yeah, I think we should begin evacuations now. Ecacuate where? Who cares?! Just evaciate!

[BarryStantonGBP]

AFRICAAAAA

BAM BAM BAM

SCORE SAM FAKKIN GOALS

[Monty]

On 8/8/2025 at 8:00 PM, BarryStantonGBP said:

OT but I'm fucking laughing at the fact the phase 7 formation was a fucking 110kts major hurricane in this example

A fucking 110kts major hurricane

how the fuck does this happen

 

Maybe if you're more profane you'll get your answer. 

[MJO812]

[Bxstormwatcher360]

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

The new euro has this coming up and shifting nw into new England. Still early obviously but a retreating high is dangerous for anybody on the coast north of cape may nj,landfall could be from there anywhere up to cape cod,ma.??

[WxWatcher007]

I posted about this elsewhere, but I am modestly intrigued by the weak disturbance off the west coast of FL. Models do nothing with it, but it seems ideally positioned with an anti-cyclone overhead allowing for strong divergence and weak shear. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

38 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I posted about this elsewhere, but I am modestly intrigued by the weak disturbance off the west coast of FL. Models do nothing with it, but it seems ideally positioned with an anti-cyclone overhead allowing for strong divergence and weak shear. 

Won’t be surprised if this lil fella becomes a pop up

The name fernand strikes me as a type to be a pop up

[BarryStantonGBP]

45 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I posted about this elsewhere, but I am modestly intrigued by the weak disturbance off the west coast of FL. Models do nothing with it, but it seems ideally positioned with an anti-cyclone overhead allowing for strong divergence and weak shear. 

AND OF COURSE

 

[Kevin Reilly]

I would definitely watch this feature.  My friend that lives along a canal in Cape Coral just NW of Fort Myers says that the canal is up to the top and water rises of about 2-3 feet are common right now.

Looks like weak shear environment or about to be soon and steering currents look like South-southeast to NNW towards the Florida Panhandle.  Looks like the upper air low sitting on top of Houston Texas and a push westbound will be the main steering features right about now. 

 

Unrelated to this but the blocking up north is very evident.  Everything is moving from Halifax Nova Scotia all the way to Chicago all the way north and south.  That is quite the blocking signal.