2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[cptcatz]

5 hours ago, TampaMan said:

So it's growing increasingly likely this will likely hit Florida? I don't follow the tropics like I did winter weather in the Mid-Atlantic. 

No. Anywhere from Atlantic Canada to the Mexican Gulf coast should be on alert for this potential storm that hasn't even splashed down from Africa yet. No one location should be on any higher alert than another. 

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

 

MJO phase (whether inside or outside the circle) 1975-2024 Jul-Sep on day of 67 CONUS hurricane hits

1: 7 (10%)

2: 17 (25%)

3: 7 (10%)

4: 7 (10%)

5: 10 (15%)

6: 6 (9%)

7: 2 (3%)

8: 11 (16%)

———————

MJO phase (whether inside or outside the circle) 1975-2024 Jul-Sep on day of 23 CONUS MAJOR hurricane hits

1: 3 (13%)

2: 9 (39%)

3: 2 (9%)

4: 2 (9%)

5: 2 (9%)

6: 2 (9%)

7: 0 (0%)

8: 3 (13%)

Analysis: Whether considering all US H hits or just MH hits, phase 2 has easily had the most hits of any one phase. You may wonder (and I wondered at first, myself) if that’s because there were far more days in phase 2 than any other phase during Jul-Sep 1975-2924. Answer: 16.8% or 1 in 6. So, it had somewhat more than an avg share, which is 12.5%. But that’s not nearly enough to fully explain the high phase 2 #s.

**Edited Conclusion: So, phase 2 really has had by a good margin the highest frequency of MH CONUS hits per days in that phase during Jul-Sep since 1975. Regarding all H when considering that phase 8 had only 10.1% of the days, phases 8 and 2 are neck and neck for the highest hit freq. per day. Phase 5 has the 3rd highest.

Sources: I looked at the following sources and did the calculations:

1. MJO phase: http://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

2. H classification/hit dates: NHC archives

3. For Katrina and Ian, I counted only the day of the more intense hit to determine MJO phase. For Andrew, both hits were during phase 6.

[BarryStantonGBP]

26 minutes ago, GaWx said:

MJO phase (whether inside or outside the circle) 1975-2024 Jul-Sep on day of 67 CONUS hurricane hits

1: 7 (10%)

2: 17 (25%)

3: 7 (10%)

4: 7 (10%)

5: 10 (15%)

6: 6 (9%)

7: 2 (3%)

8: 11 (16%)

———————

MJO phase (whether inside or outside the circle) 1975-2024 Jul-Sep on day of 23 CONUS MAJOR hurricane hits

1: 3 (13%)

2: 9 (39%)

3: 2 (9%)

4: 2 (9%)

5: 2 (9%)

6: 2 (9%)

7: 0 (0%)

8: 3 (13%)

Analysis: Whether considering all US H hits or just MH hits, phase 2 has easily had the most hits of any one phase. You may wonder (and I wondered at first, myself) if that’s because there were far more days in phase 2 than any other phase during Jul-Sep 1975-2924. Answer: 16.8% or 1 in 6. So, it had somewhat more than an avg share, which is 12.5%. But that’s not nearly enough to fully explain the high phase 2 #s.

Conclusion: So, phase 2 really has had by a good margin the highest frequency of H and especially MH CONUS hits per days in that phase during Jul-Sep since 1975.

Sources: I looked at the following sources and did the calculations:

1. MJO phase: http://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

2. H classification/hit dates: NHC archives

3. For Katrina and Ian, I counted only the day of the more intense hit to determine MJO phase. For Andrew, both hits were during phase 6.

OT but I'm fucking laughing at the fact the phase 7 formation was a fucking 110kts major hurricane in this example

A fucking 110kts major hurricane

how the fuck does this happen

 

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

OT but I'm fucking laughing at the fact the phase 7 formation was a fucking 110kts major hurricane in this example

A fucking 110kts major hurricane

how the fuck does this happen

 

My analysis had nothing to do with date of formation. It was strictly based on date of Conus landfalls.

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

My analysis had nothing to do with date of formation. It was strictly based on date of Conus landfalls.

K