2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Again, that is only representative of the surface and not the OHC which is what really matters. We have seen a very windy NH winter which had the effect of turning over the surface. It’s not like the year over year temp dropped because the overhead temps were much colder then normal. Increased winds are well predicted by climate change models and are reason for counterintuitive storm number forecasts.

 
Thanks. The same website has OHC for the same region although it updates more slowly. I’ll be following this very closely also. This is the corresponding OHC for the same area as of April 16 as opposed to April 27. It shows that the OHC has also fallen a lot since one year ago, when it was way up at the 2013-24 average for late June! It was on 4/16/25 down to near the 2013-24 average for 4/16 although it actually was a bit warmer than 2023, which was within just days of rising rapidly and reaching then new daily record highs that would go all of the way into June of 2024:
 

 

https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/ohc/ohc_east.png

[BarryStantonGBP]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

Your link doesn’t show anything. But check the image below out:
 

 The image below is the SST for each year 1982-2025 for the tropical Atlantic 10-20N, 20-60W. The black line is the 1991-2020 average, the red is 2023, orange is 2024, and blue is 2025 to date. Note how much cooler it is as of 4/27/2025 (near the 1991-2020 average) vs both 4/27/2023 and 4/27/2024!

 

https://kouya.has.arizona.edu/tropics/tropATLsst.png

It will warm up soon btw 

 

“it will be below average/average!” 

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 
Thanks. The same website has OHC for the same region although it updates more slowly. I’ll be following this very closely also. This is the corresponding OHC for the same area as of April 16 as opposed to April 27. It shows that the OHC has also fallen a lot since one year ago, when it was way up at the 2013-24 average for late June! It was on 4/16/25 down to near the 2013-24 average for 4/16 although it actually was a bit warmer than 2023, which was within just days of rising rapidly and reaching then new daily record highs that would go all of the way into June of 2024:
 

 

https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/ohc/ohc_east.png

Lmao not only the east Atlantic matters. Stop jumping to conclusions 

it will be above average at least

[BarryStantonGBP]

“From today's trip to the weather twitters. Deep tropic suppression because of warm sub-tropics would seem, to me, to decrease risk of a major landfall in the Caribbean and Central/North America.”

LMAO no whoever said this

keep getting your hopes up

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Lmao not only the east Atlantic matters. Stop jumping to conclusions 

it will be above average at least

-I’m not concluding/predicting where the OHC will be come hurricane season. I’m just showing how it looks as of April 16th vs other years.

-I’m showing the area east of the Caribbean because it was so incredibly warm last year and has cooled so much since then as JB has been emphasizing recently almost every day.

-Indeed, the Caribbean and Gulf are also very important regarding OHC. They’ve also cooled though not as dramatically. The subtropics are also important though this section doesn’t have OHC for it as it is a tropical waters section.

Cheers

[jconsor]

10 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

8 hurricanes, 4 majors expected, and a landfall-heavy year

Agreed more with these lot than most of the mainstream

https://www.spglobal.com/esg/insights/featured/special-editorial/an-elevated-2025-hurricane-season

Thanks for posting the S&P outlook, Barry.  Very interesting! One of the few *data-driven* (not totally qualitative) landfall risk outlooks I have seen.

Their maps seem to suggest higher than usual activity in the central Atlantic portion of the MDR (around 40-60W) and the Bahamas area (off FL coast) as well as the Caribbean and GOM.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, jconsor said:

Thanks for posting the S&P outlook, Barry.  Very interesting! One of the few *data-driven* (not totally qualitative) landfall risk outlooks I have seen.

Their maps seem to suggest higher than usual activity in the central Atlantic portion of the MDR (around 40-60W) and the Bahamas area (off FL coast) as well as the Caribbean and GOM.

Yaakov,

 Fwiw, the data driven April 2025 Euro forecast for 2025 has just a near normal CONUS risk vs an enhanced risk in the April of 2024 forecast for 2024:

This was April of 2024: look at all of that red concentrated along the US coasts/in Gulf:

 

Here’s April of 2025: no red…just mainly near normal (yellow):

 

 The Euro might be a bit underdone with just a near normal US risk, but the point is that the model clearly shows a significantly lower risk than it showed last year. And last year was a very bad year for the US in the Gulf/SE.

 I was personally heavily impacted by both Debby (flooding rains getting into my garage) and Helene (high winds leading to a multi-day power outage (longest since David of 45 years earlier) leading to loss of refrigerated/frozen food and miserable inside conditions), but this was nothing compared to what happened further west in GA, NW SC, and especially W NC from Helene as well as the severe impacts on FL from Helene and Milton. So, it not being nearly as bad this year wouldn’t be difficult.

 It will be interesting to see whether the May Euro outlook for 2025 is similar to April’s.

 The SE US/Gulf is especially due a quieter year as 2019 was the only fairly tranquil year since 2016! But Mother Nature doesn’t care about what’s due, which isn’t a forecast.

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 hours ago, jconsor said:

Thanks for posting the S&P outlook, Barry.  Very interesting! One of the few *data-driven* (not totally qualitative) landfall risk outlooks I have seen.

Their maps seem to suggest higher than usual activity in the central Atlantic portion of the MDR (around 40-60W) and the Bahamas area (off FL coast) as well as the Caribbean and GOM.

You’re welcome

im mostly ignoring any howling for “below normal or normal” seasons because they’re only focusing on “but the MDR IS COLD” 

 

they have been hyper fixating on Eastern Africa and yes it will reheat in the coming weeks as trades lessen. I don’t know why they’re jumping to conclusions plus models can be incorrect sometimes if you remember 2018-19 and of course 2022
 

I have just checked the Caribbean and gulf ssts

 

still above normal even the ohc so I don’t know why they’re jumping to conclusions

 

plus I look at the LRC and more for landfall risks 

 

I am looking at an above average season despite howling 

 

yourself? 

[BarryStantonGBP]

9 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Again, that is only representative of the surface and not the OHC which is what really matters. We have seen a very windy NH winter which had the effect of turning over the surface. It’s not like the year over year temp dropped because the overhead temps were much colder then normal. Increased winds are well predicted by climate change models and are reason for counterintuitive storm number forecasts.

“But increased trades” 

LMAO

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Yaakov,

 Fwiw, the data driven April 2025 Euro forecast for 2025 has just a near normal CONUS risk vs an enhanced risk in the April of 2024 forecast for 2024:

This was April of 2024: look at all of that red concentrated along the US coasts/in Gulf:

 

Here’s April of 2025: no red…just mainly near normal (yellow):

 

 The Euro might be a bit underdone with just a near normal US risk, but the point is that the model clearly shows a significantly lower risk than it showed last year. And last year was a very bad year for the US in the Gulf/SE.

 I was personally heavily impacted by both Debby (flooding rains getting into my garage) and Helene (high winds leading to a multi-day power outage (longest since David of 45 years earlier) leading to loss of refrigerated/frozen food and miserable inside conditions), but this was nothing compared to what happened further west in GA, NW SC, and especially W NC from Helene as well as the severe impacts on FL from Helene and Milton. So, it not being nearly as bad this year wouldn’t be difficult.

 It will be interesting to see whether the May Euro outlook for 2025 is similar to April’s.

 The SE US/Gulf is especially due a quieter year as 2019 was the only fairly tranquil year since 2016! But Mother Nature doesn’t care about what’s due, which isn’t a forecast.

“But decreased landfall expectations!”

”My EURO! My models!”

 

An Elevated 2025 Hurricane Season

Forecast for the 2025 Hurricane Season and Retrospective Analysis of the 2024 Forecast

Published: April 7, 2025

 

 

•  

HIGHLIGHTS

The S&P Global Climate Center of Excellence forecasts above-average hurricane activity in the North Atlantic, Caribbean, and the US and Mexican Gulf Coasts for the upcoming 2025 season. Our forecasts include the overall number of hurricanes as well as local probabilities of hurricanes passing nearby.

Though lower than 2024, probabilities for impact by a major hurricane on large stretches of US and Caribbean coastlines are still forecast to be 50%-80% above their long-term average values.

The driving climate factors in the forecast are El Niño/La Niña and sea surface temperatures in the subtropical North Atlantic. El Niño/La Niña is currently forecast to be close to neutral from July to September, compared to the La Niña state in 2024, while North Atlantic temperatures are forecast to be significantly elevated, though not as high as 2024. 

In this report we provide details of the forecast, including occurrence probability maps. We also present a retrospective analysis of our forecast for the 2024 season. The 2024 forecast was largely successful, confirming the model’s forecast skill.

 

---

Authors
Timothy Hall | Senior Scientist, S&P Global Climate Center of Excellence

 

---

 

Hurricanes: What’s at stake and who could be impacted

Powerful tropical cyclones — known as hurricanes in the North Atlantic and typhoons in the Pacific — are among the most deadly and destructive natural disasters on the planet. Understanding them can help protect lives, homes and businesses. 

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June through the end of November, and for 2025, the seasonal hurricane model from the S&P Global Climate Center of Excellence forecasts eight hurricanes, with four of them reaching major hurricane status.

Hurricane intensity is labeled on a range from Category 1 on the low end up to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, and major hurricanes are defined as Category 3 and above. 

The hazard forecast that follows is relevant for many stakeholders, from residents and municipalities to property owners, businesses, and energy production facilities along the US Gulf Coast, US East Coast, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Islands. The information is also relevant to insurers and investors with portfolios located in these regions. We forecast that these stakeholders will have elevated risk to property and infrastructure damage and financial loss in 2025 compared to long-term averages.

To put some additional context around what’s at stake here: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Office (NOAA) has tallied 403 weather and climate disasters since 1980 that each resulted in costs of $1 billion or more, with a total cumulative cost of more than $2.9 trillion. Of all those $1 billion-plus weather disasters, tropical cyclones/hurricanes caused the most damage, at over $1.5 trillion total with an average cost of $23 billion per event. Hurricanes also caused the most deaths — more than 7,200 since 1980.

 

Looking ahead: What we’re forecasting for 2025

In most regions of US and Caribbean coastlines, we forecast hurricane occurrence probabilities (passage of a hurricane within 50 km) to be substantially higher than their long-term (1948-2022) mean values. Many sections of US and Caribbean coastline have probability of a hurricane impact (Category 1 and up) approximately 30%-50% higher than the long-term mean (1948-2022), and major hurricane impact (Category 3 and up) 50%-80% higher than the long-term mean. For example, the forecast hurricane impact probability on Corpus Christi, Texas, is 0.078, compared to the 1948-2022 mean of 0.053, an increase of 47%, and major hurricane impact of 0.034 compared to the 1948-2022 mean of 0.019, an increase of 79%. 

These increased probabilities can be seen in Figures 1 and 2, which show 2025 forecast and 1948-2022 mean maps of impact probability for all hurricanes (Figure 1) and major hurricanes (Figure 2). We show best-estimate probabilities on a mapped sample of coastal locations in Figure 3. Large uncertainty is an inherent feature of seasonal forecasting, and location data available in Figure 3 also lists our lower and upper estimates from our ranges of uncertainty. (There’s a 5% chance the true value falls below the lower estimate or above the upper estimate.) For most locations, however, even the lower estimate forecast sits near or above the 1948-2022 mean, providing confidence in the overall forecast of an above-average 2025 season.

 

 

 

Figure 3: Hover over each location to view the probability of hurricane passage within 50 km of a sample of coastal locations. Probabilities are provided for the long-term average (1948-2022) and 2025 forecasts for Category 1 and higher and Category 3 and higher hurricanes. For the forecasts, uncertainty ranges are also provided at the 5% and 95% confidence level; that is, there’s a 5% chance the true value falls below the lower estimate (5%) or above the upper estimate (95%).

 

The total number of hurricanes and major hurricanes that form in the season is also forecast to be elevated, though not as elevated as the local impact probabilities. The best-estimate forecast is 8.1 hurricanes (4 to 13, 5%-95% uncertainty) and 3.5 major hurricanes (1 to 7, 5%-95% uncertainty), compared to 1948-2022 mean values of 6.6 and 2.6. The uncertainty distribution is wide, and the distribution overlaps the 1948-2022 means. The smaller increase in total storm count compared to local probabilities highlights the importance of forecasting local impacts, not just Atlantic-wide formation rates. A small fractional increase in overall formation rate can lead to a larger increase in local probability. If a tropical cyclone reaches hurricane or major hurricane status even briefly during its life cycle, it counts as a storm formed at that intensity level. But by itself, the overall formation says nothing about how long the tropical cyclone remained at that intensity. Our model also predicts how long tropical cyclones remain intense. The combination of more hurricanes and major hurricanes and longer duration at those intensities increases the odds of a locality being impacted beyond merely the overall formation rate. In addition, the model predicts seasonal changes in average paths of tropical cyclones, which can have a further impact on local probabilities.

The factors driving our hurricane forecasts are forecasts of the state of El Niño/La Niña, an irregularly varying signal in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific, and SST in the subtropical North Atlantic. We make use of SST forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which has one of the best track records. As of early March, ECMWF forecast El Niño/La Niña states near neutral for June-July-August (the bulk of the hurricane season), but SST in the subtropical Atlantic significantly elevated above long-term averages. El Niño suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity, while La Niña enhances it, so a near-neutral forecast has little impact. Meanwhile, warm subtropical Atlantic SSTs drive active hurricane seasons. Taken together, the El Niño/La Niña and Atlantic SST inputs, when run through our model, result in elevated hurricane activity.

 

 

Looking back: Analysis of our 2024 forecast

Our successful forecast of the 2024 hurricane season lends credibility to the 2025 forecast. In March 2024 we forecast an upcoming season of highly elevated activity, driven by forecasts for a strong La Niña phase of El Niño/La Niña (Atlantic hurricanes tend to be more active during the La Niña phase) and extremely warm SSTs in the subtropical North Atlantic. While the 2024 La Niña was not as pronounced as ECMWF forecast, an extremely warm North Atlantic did occur, and the hurricane season was one of the most active on record.

 

In March 2024, we forecast a 2024 formation rate of 14 hurricanes, with eight of them reaching major hurricanes status. The season actually experienced 11 hurricanes, including five classified as major. How good is this agreement? Seasonal forecasts are probabilistic in nature. That is, the best we can do is forecast a range of results. As seen in Figure 4, the 2024 forecast range is far more consistent with the actual numbers that occurred than is the long-term average distribution. In other words, the forecast performed better than just using historical average rates.

 

Figure 5: Forecast impact probability maps for the 2024 season made in March 2024. Hurricanes of all intensities (Category 1 or higher) are shown on the left, while major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) are shown right. Also shown (black dots) are observed locations of tropical cyclones when they were at hurricane and major hurricane intensity. The inset values are the Brier Skill Score (BSS) measures of the forecast performance, with positive values indicating skill.

 

Looking beyond Atlantic-wide rates, we can also assess the performance of our forecast on a regional level. Figure 5 shows the forecast probability maps, and the observed hurricane tracks for all hurricanes and major hurricanes. Seasonal forecasts are inherently probabilistic — the maps display the probability of occurrence, not a deterministic forecast for a particular event at a particular time — and assessing the performance of the forecast requires the use of a probabilistic skill score diagnostic. In assessing the skill of such a forecast, one asks if the forecast assigned higher probability to what ultimately occurred than did long-term climatological average maps.

A common probabilistic forecast diagnostic is the Brier Skill Score (BSS). The differences between the forecast probabilities and the ultimate occurrences (yes or no, 1 or 0) are summed up over the region shown in the maps. This sum is then repeated using the long-term (1948-2022) climatological probabilities instead of the forecast, and the two sums are compared. The BSS is designed so that BSS=1 is a perfect deterministic forecast (forecast probability of 1 where events occurred and 0 where they didn’t); BSS=0 indicates a forecast no better than long-term climatology, that is, no skill; and BSS<0 indicates a misleading forecast worse than climatology. A perfect BSS=1 is impossible to achieve, even for tomorrow’s weather forecast. But a useful forecast must have BSS>0.

Our 2024 forecasts have BSS>0, indicating skill beyond climatology. For hurricanes of any intensity, the forecast’s BSS=0.12, and for major hurricanes BSS=0.07. As difficult and uncertain as seasonal forecasting is, this positive skill indicates that our forecast model has utility and lends credence to our 2025 forecast.

The Atlantic is poised for another busy hurricane season in 2025. While not forecast to be as active as the 2024 season, nonetheless the probability of North American and Caribbean coastal regions being impacted will be significantly higher than the long-term average. Populations, businesses, and investors in these regions should pay close attention to hurricane forecasts and alerts as the season evolves.

[BarryStantonGBP]

Also ignore Joe Bastardi’s babbling on twitter. He’s jumping to conclusions and omitting important information by cropping off graphs

he is not seeing the whole picture 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

You’re welcome

im mostly ignoring any howling for “below normal or normal” seasons because they’re only focusing on “but the MDR IS COLD” 

 

they have been hyper fixating on Eastern Africa and yes it will reheat in the coming weeks as trades lessen. I don’t know why they’re jumping to conclusions plus models can be incorrect sometimes if you remember 2018-19 and of course 2022
 

I have just checked the Caribbean and gulf ssts

 

still above normal even the ohc so I don’t know why they’re jumping to conclusions

 

plus I look at the LRC and more for landfall risks 

 

I am looking at an above average season despite howling 

 

yourself? 

Barry,

 Please don’t twist my words. I didn’t say the MDR is cold. You can look back ITT and see that. What I said is that the tropical Atlantic isn’t nearly as warm as last year at this time (OHC and SST) and is close to normal. I didn’t forecast how that will be come H season, but I did imply that the Euro forecasting a near 30 year average season instead of well above like it did in 2024 was heavily influenced by that. I also said the Euro might be a bit underdone with NN. I personally feel the best chance is still for above average in 2025 and near to above average activity for the CONUS, but likely not as active for the CONUS, itself, as the terrible 2024 since the odds would favor not as bad.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

I have just checked the Caribbean and gulf ssts

still above normal even the ohc so I don’t know why they’re jumping to conclusions

 The Caribbean OHC was still AN as of April 16th, but not as warm as a year ago:

 

The Gulf was NN as of 4/16/25 but that was actually near 4/16/24:

 

[cptcatz]

I'm just gonna use my non-scientific mind and say you guys are arguing over something that has very little to do with the overall season.  Yeah, I am truly on the side of thinking that the SST has minimal impacts on the overall season. I've learned over the last handful of years that bigger atmospheric things matter so much more... dust, wind shear, stability, latitude of the african waves, etc. You can have burning hot ocean temps but if those other things aren't there, you're not gonna get hurricanes. I think we just look at SST because it's so easy to measure while those other things are not. But whether we're talking about average SST, just above average, or well above average, I don't think that matters as much as you guys think it does. Just my opinion...

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 hours ago, cptcatz said:

I'm just gonna use my non-scientific mind and say you guys are arguing over something that has very little to do with the overall season.  Yeah, I am truly on the side of thinking that the SST has minimal impacts on the overall season. I've learned over the last handful of years that bigger atmospheric things matter so much more... dust, wind shear, stability, latitude of the african waves, etc. You can have burning hot ocean temps but if those other things aren't there, you're not gonna get hurricanes. I think we just look at SST because it's so easy to measure while those other things are not. But whether we're talking about average SST, just above average, or well above average, I don't think that matters as much as you guys think it does. Just my opinion...

That’s why I’ve given up on mainstream forecasters

[GaWx]

7 hours ago, cptcatz said:

I'm just gonna use my non-scientific mind and say you guys are arguing over something that has very little to do with the overall season.  Yeah, I am truly on the side of thinking that the SST has minimal impacts on the overall season. I've learned over the last handful of years that bigger atmospheric things matter so much more... dust, wind shear, stability, latitude of the african waves, etc. You can have burning hot ocean temps but if those other things aren't there, you're not gonna get hurricanes. I think we just look at SST because it's so easy to measure while those other things are not. But whether we're talking about average SST, just above average, or well above average, I don't think that matters as much as you guys think it does. Just my opinion...

 

5 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

That’s why I’ve given up on mainstream forecasters

 I look at the tropical Atlantic SST/OHC as just one of several important factors. It is, after all, a measure of the level of potential energy that can be tapped depending on other important factors. After all, this was the main reason 2023 was forecasted to be so active despite a strong El Niño.

 But even so, it won’t have much impact til at least July, which is still over 2 months away. And the peak of Sept is still 4 months away. SST/OHC may change a lot before then. Be that as it may, the fact that it is currently much cooler than last year is notable and thus it will be interesting to follow going forward. It may warm up a lot as Barry suggests per the model prog. But even if so, will it reach the last 2 years’ levels?

 Regardless, two other regions (Gulf and Caribbean) are almost always quite warm throughout the season and thus their SST/OHC isn’t as crucial.

[WxWatcher007]

On 4/29/2025 at 12:53 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Again, that is only representative of the surface and not the OHC which is what really matters. We have seen a very windy NH winter which had the effect of turning over the surface. It’s not like the year over year temp dropped because the overhead temps were much colder then normal. Increased winds are well predicted by climate change models and are reason for counterintuitive storm number forecasts.

 

On 4/29/2025 at 1:30 AM, GaWx said:

 
Thanks. The same website has OHC for the same region although it updates more slowly. I’ll be following this very closely also. This is the corresponding OHC for the same area as of April 16 as opposed to April 27. It shows that the OHC has also fallen a lot since one year ago, when it was way up at the 2013-24 average for late June! It was on 4/16/25 down to near the 2013-24 average for 4/16 although it actually was a bit warmer than 2023, which was within just days of rising rapidly and reaching then new daily record highs that would go all of the way into June of 2024:
 

 

https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/ohc/ohc_east.png

 

On 4/29/2025 at 8:14 AM, jconsor said:

Thanks for posting the S&P outlook, Barry.  Very interesting! One of the few *data-driven* (not totally qualitative) landfall risk outlooks I have seen.

Their maps seem to suggest higher than usual activity in the central Atlantic portion of the MDR (around 40-60W) and the Bahamas area (off FL coast) as well as the Caribbean and GOM.

 

On 4/30/2025 at 7:28 AM, cptcatz said:

I'm just gonna use my non-scientific mind and say you guys are arguing over something that has very little to do with the overall season.  Yeah, I am truly on the side of thinking that the SST has minimal impacts on the overall season. I've learned over the last handful of years that bigger atmospheric things matter so much more... dust, wind shear, stability, latitude of the african waves, etc. You can have burning hot ocean temps but if those other things aren't there, you're not gonna get hurricanes. I think we just look at SST because it's so easy to measure while those other things are not. But whether we're talking about average SST, just above average, or well above average, I don't think that matters as much as you guys think it does. Just my opinion...

 

On 4/30/2025 at 1:18 PM, GaWx said:

 

 I look at the tropical Atlantic SST/OHC as just one of several important factors. It is, after all, a measure of the level of potential energy that can be tapped depending on other important factors. After all, this was the main reason 2023 was forecasted to be so active despite a strong El Niño.

 But even so, it won’t have much impact til at least July, which is still over 2 months away. And the peak of Sept is still 4 months away. SST/OHC may change a lot before then. Be that as it may, the fact that it is currently much cooler than last year is notable and thus it will be interesting to follow going forward. It may warm up a lot as Barry suggests per the model prog. But even if so, will it reach the last 2 years’ levels?

 Regardless, two other regions (Gulf and Caribbean) are almost always quite warm throughout the season and thus their SST/OHC isn’t as crucial.

 

Just going to make some blanket comments here. It's indisputable that there are numerous factors that determine whether a season is active or not. SSTs and OHC are just one piece of the puzzle and I think @cptcatz is right that they're often leaned on too much, but they are still a significant piece. SSTs should warm up some, as mentioned by the discussion earlier. That's not really where my caution flag lies. For me it's not just the tropical Atlantic SSTs that are important, the subtropics as well. 

This distribution has me concerned that the stability issues we've seen this decade will persist into the 2025 season. Now, that hasn't proven to stop the exceptional stretch of activity we've seen since 2017, but it's something to pay attention to considering possibly less ideal atmospheric conditions this season with the lack of a full blown Nina. We only need to look at last season and the historic lid that was placed on the entire basin due to SAL and systemic stability reinforced by an active AEW train as an extreme example of what can happen. Is there anyone willing to say right now that 60W to 20W won't have at least some problems with SAL and stability?

There are still open questions about the WAM, how much the Pacific cools, and the actual ENSO that controls this summer/fall. I don't think it's unreasonable at all to throw up caution flags, even while leaning toward another above normal season. I don't think that's "mainstream" or whatever, it's looking at the evidence right in front of us. 

@jconsor, agree that the S&P forecast is interesting, though I am still skeptical of those kind of LR forecasts and their skill. Doesn't mean the science isn't being pushed forward though, which would be awesome to see. I do agree that we probably have a higher than normal likelihood for an active landfall season, but I'm not willing to paint landfall zones because idk if the skill is truly there outside of a month at most. 

@GaWx, I don't think we need SSTs to approach the last two years for a higher end NS season, but I do think we need an expansive region of high OHC for this year to produce higher end H and MH numbers. That's there, though not nearly to the extent of the prior two years. 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

Hey @WxWatcher007, wasn’t there a theory that that mid season quiet period of 2024 was related to the ITCZ being so far north? I didn’t necessarily buy it and actually thought it was counterintuitive due to increased coriolis force further N of the equator, which itself should be positive for TCG. Do you buy that theory? Wasn’t it said by those agreeing with that theory that the so far N ITCZ had increased Saharan/dry air incorporated into the AEWs?

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

31 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Hey @WxWatcher007, wasn’t there a theory that that mid season quiet period of 2024 was related to the ITCZ being so far north? I didn’t necessarily buy it and actually thought it was counterintuitive due to increased coriolis force further N of the equator, which itself should be positive for TCG. Do you buy that theory? Wasn’t it said by those agreeing with that theory that the so far N ITCZ had increased Saharan/dry air incorporated into the AEWs?

That’s it, increased dry stable air at the mid levels. Destroys lapse rates as there isn’t as much change in temp with highl. Very counterproductive for general thunderstorms that are needed in early development. You can have all the spin in the world. Ideally you want the waves to exist as far south as possible in the most moist top to bottom environment. 

[WxWatcher007]

39 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Hey @WxWatcher007, wasn’t there a theory that that mid season quiet period of 2024 was related to the ITCZ being so far north? I didn’t necessarily buy it and actually thought it was counterintuitive due to increased coriolis force further N of the equator, which itself should be positive for TCG. Do you buy that theory? Wasn’t it said by those agreeing with that theory that the so far N ITCZ had increased Saharan/dry air incorporated into the AEWs?

 

3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s it, increased dry stable air at the mid levels. Destroys lapse rates as there isn’t as much change in temp with highl. Very counterproductive for general thunderstorms that are needed in early development. You can have all the spin in the world. Ideally you want the waves to exist as far south as possible in the most moist top to bottom environment. 

I think this is it. Too far north and you’re dealing with cooler SSTs and inherently more stable/dry air due to proximity to the Sahara and subtropics. IMO there were robust waves coming off too far north that reinforced SAL during the climatological peak for SAL, and stability even as SAL declined. The further south waves fared much better, especially after SAL pushes weren’t as potent in the tropical Atlantic. I think that can be much less pronounced this season during peak, but I don’t know.

[BarryStantonGBP]

4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

 

 

 

 

Just going to make some blanket comments here. It's indisputable that there are numerous factors that determine whether a season is active or not. SSTs and OHC are just one piece of the puzzle and I think @cptcatz is right that they're often leaned on too much, but they are still a significant piece. SSTs should warm up some, as mentioned by the discussion earlier. That's not really where my caution flag lies. For me it's not just the tropical Atlantic SSTs that are important, the subtropics as well. 

This distribution has me concerned that the stability issues we've seen this decade will persist into the 2025 season. Now, that hasn't proven to stop the exceptional stretch of activity we've seen since 2017, but it's something to pay attention to considering possibly less ideal atmospheric conditions this season with the lack of a full blown Nina. We only need to look at last season and the historic lid that was placed on the entire basin due to SAL and systemic stability reinforced by an active AEW train as an extreme example of what can happen. Is there anyone willing to say right now that 60W to 20W won't have at least some problems with SAL and stability?

There are still open questions about the WAM, how much the Pacific cools, and the actual ENSO that controls this summer/fall. I don't think it's unreasonable at all to throw up caution flags, even while leaning toward another above normal season. I don't think that's "mainstream" or whatever, it's looking at the evidence right in front of us. 

@jconsor, agree that the S&P forecast is interesting, though I am still skeptical of those kind of LR forecasts and their skill. Doesn't mean the science isn't being pushed forward though, which would be awesome to see. I do agree that we probably have a higher than normal likelihood for an active landfall season, but I'm not willing to paint landfall zones because idk if the skill is truly there outside of a month at most. 

@GaWx, I don't think we need SSTs to approach the last two years for a higher end NS season, but I do think we need an expansive region of high OHC for this year to produce higher end H and MH numbers. That's there, though not nearly to the extent of the prior two years. 

 

 

 

Lmao keep dreaming

ive given up on mainstream forecasters and models

and note the similarities in 2017 and 2025

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'm sticking with the Over/Under at 15-16 Named Storms. 

[Torch Tiger]

my very basic outlook /thoughts are similar to Chuck or a bit lower, a rather generic year that will have impacts. May post more about it soon but want to make sure it's at least somewhat correct and it's early   I'd watch BRO/CRP for something 

13-16NS

5-7HUR

2-3 MH 

[BarryStantonGBP]

9 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

my very basic outlook /thoughts are similar to Chuck or a bit lower, a rather generic year that will have impacts. May post more about it soon but want to make sure it's at least somewhat correct and it's early   I'd watch BRO/CRP for something 

13-16NS

5-7HUR

2-3 MH 

Too bearish

[GaWx]

Elevated TC threat SE US May 26th-June 1st per Euto Weeklies fwiw: signal has persisted for a few days for then and it looks like a W Caribbean/gyre origin:

[GaWx]

Hot off the press:

1. The May 2025 Euro Atlantic basin forecast numbers for 2025 are pretty similar to the April 2025 Euro forecasts for 2025. They’re actually slightly less active with ACE of 110% vs 120%. That’s still an ACE of 130-140, not at all quiet.

2. The May 2025 Euro forecasts for 2025 are way less active than those of the May 2024 forecasts for 2024, but they’re not calling for a quiet season as they’re calling for near the normal for the current active era:

-ACE: 110% vs 200%
-# of H: 7.1 vs 12.8
-# of NS: 14.5 vs 22.8

-Activity from Gulf through NW Caribbean, Florida, and Bahamas is similar to last month’s forecast, which is notably lower than 2024 with it enhanced in May of 2024 (almost all red on the map those areas) vs mainly near normal (vs current active era) in May of 2025 (actually has slightly reduced vs active era’s normal (blue) in small areas)(see images below)

In summary, the latest Euro (May) is similar to the April forecast for the 2025 season with near normal vs current active era (not quiet) vs well above normal in their 2024 forecasts.

May 2025 forecast for 2025: near normal of current active era

 

May 2024 forecast for 2024: very active

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Hot off the press:

1. The May 2025 Euro Atlantic basin forecast numbers for 2025 are pretty similar to the April 2025 Euro forecasts for 2025. They’re actually slightly less active with ACE of 110% vs 120%.

2. The May 2025 Euro forecasts for 2025 are way less active than those of the May 2024 forecasts for 2024, but they’re not calling for a quiet season as they’re calling for near normal:

-ACE: 110% vs 200%
-# of H: 7.1 vs 12.8
-# of NS: 14.5 vs 22.8

-Activity from Gulf through NW Caribbean, Florida, and Bahamas is similar to last month’s forecast, which is notably lower than 2024 with it enhanced in May of 2024 (almost all red on the map those areas) vs mainly near normal in May of 2025 (actually has slightly reduced vs normal (blue) in small areas)(see images below)

In summary, the latest Euro (May) is similar to the April forecast for the 2025 season with near normal (not quiet) vs well above normal in their 2024 forecasts.

May 2025 forecast for 2025: near normal

 

May 2024 forecast for 2024: very active

Ha, beat me to it. Here’s a thread looking at the environmental conditions forecast. It’s not gospel, obviously, but it’s another piece of the puzzle.

 

[GaWx]

On 5/4/2025 at 11:17 PM, GaWx said:

Elevated TC threat SE US May 26th-June 1st per Euto Weeklies fwiw: signal has persisted for a few days for then and it looks like a W Caribbean/gyre origin:

The last two runs of the Euro Weeklies for the week 5/26-6/1 have backed way down on the chance for W Caribbean/gyre originating activity later threatening FL/SE US:

[yoda]

@WxWatcher007 would not be pleased

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1920133584146354231

 

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, yoda said:

@WxWatcher007 would not be pleased

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1920133584146354231

 

Thanks. Andy H said: “If this forecast is accurate, we could see the 3 big NH basins (West Pacific, East Pacific, Atlantic) all struggle to produce TCs this year.”

 You never know as he may be into something. But based on the Euro and other things and the fact that no El Niño is forecasted, this sounds quite a bit overdone for the Atlantic basin. The ATL could imho easily have a NN season as the Euro predicts. But having a quiet season there seems unlikely to me. And I’m saying this being someone near the coast who would love nothing better than the lowered stress of a quiet season with last year being particularly bad. The SE US is overdue for a low stress season. But I don’t forecast based on my desires/wishcast.