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March 2024 disco/obs


Torch Tiger
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Not sure how much of it is CC induced or just part of a normal cycle but historically, its been pretty rare to maintain 100% humidity and foggy conditions for an entire day. This isn't Seattle (yet anyways). At PVD we had five days that did that in 2023, plus another two days this past January, and March 5th had 99.9% rh. Not sure how accurate the data is, but prior to 2023, I could only find four other days since 1976 which had 100% rh, plus another four with 99.8% rh. So thats pretty crazy that in the past year we have had more days with 100% rh than we had in the previous 50 or so years.

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6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It's March 7th   Ave temp thru the 7th March 2012 was 33 and March 2024 at BDL is 45. Let's let the month run out and then compare

I don't think this will be a March 2012 repeat for the record...I said +2 to +4, so yea, that implies a cool down in the second half given we are like +10 now.

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4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Canada is torched and there's zero snowcover anywhere.   Good luck with anything less than average temps

What lurks ... If and if LR models are correct we develop cross polar flow. But I am done talking about it. We shall see. Until then enjoy the clouds and rain. I am sure your solar panels are screaming for sun

Screenshot_20240307_094645_Chrome.jpg

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We've had mild days, but overnight mins driving the departures for sure. Story since November.

That's what i was going to mention is what drove up departures, We never had any night this winter season that we went below zero here, Lowest i had was 1.9°F

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do me a favor and pull up some hr 360 charts from early December....color me skeptical.

Like I said before  and you guys can go with persistence but I am forecasting a pattern change after Mid Month.  

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6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

What lurks ... If and if LR models are correct we develop cross polar flow. But I am done talking about it. We shall see. Until then enjoy the clouds and rain. I am sure your solar panels are screaming for sun

Screenshot_20240307_094645_Chrome.jpg

No solar panels here.  But we have seen LR forecasts for cold consistently fail or come in shorter/more muted.  Sell.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

A pattern change from a +10 first week, I agree with....will it be as amplified and favorable as that chart? Lets see....there is reason for doubt.

Whole sale teleconnections pattern change not some wimpy zonal flow 

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

I thought you were the big solar guy?

Me?  Nope.  My neighbors who have them tell me some horror stories-not getting what they were promised etc.   Not to mention that they would have to be on the front of my house-not happenin'

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Earthlight knows his shit...great met, but his outlook was pretty similar to mine, which hasn't done so hot.

And it's been a torch all winter...all the sudden that's going to change?  LOL

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, it can...2007 did...similar with respect to the forcing displaced into MC, too.

There are exceptions yes, maybe that happens this time but I doubt it.   The lack of snow/ice cover has been understated all winter and a likely reason why cold shots have underperformed etc.

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2 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Thanks, but I'd say that's a generous assessment, haha! The real skill was holding the damn phone steady and kicking at the same time.

That was awesome.  I coached soccer for my kids up to high school.  Miss it

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Late season stronger Ninos have had a history of a period of BN and some snow. If there is a BN period, I do not think it lasts long. I mean in April 2016 I had two snow events with one of them struggling for 30F during the day. 

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