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20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There were multiple reasons why 95-96 happened, high Atlantic ACE aside, it was before AGW really kicked in, it was -QBO, it was +PDO, it was solar minimum/low geomag/low sunspots, the AMO wasn’t severely positive and it was a weak La Niña with a synoptic pattern that was atypical for a Niña, which was due to the PDO IMO

Yep. No argument.

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8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Keep me posted on that formula, but I'm not optimistic. 

I was actually on a roll with the AO/NAO for a few years, but last year I was off..expected it close to neutral and it was pretty +.

We are in agreement on pretty much everything so far. I also really doubt the AO/NAO cooperation for the following reasons: solar, ++AMO, volcanic stratosphere?, +QBO, moderate-strong Niña (possibly quickly transitioning to a Modoki), especially if the IOD goes negative come fall, I think the event goes strong. Unlike last year where the PDO and PMM did not synch with the Nino, this one will have no issue “coupling” (MEI/RONI)

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13 hours ago, snowman19 said:

We are in agreement on pretty much everything so far. I also really doubt the AO/NAO cooperation for the following reasons: solar, ++AMO, volcanic stratosphere?, +QBO, moderate-strong Niña (possibly quickly transitioning to a Modoki), especially if the IOD goes negative come fall, I think the event goes strong. Unlike last year where the PDO and PMM did not synch with the Nino, this one will have no issue “coupling” (MEI/RONI)

I am far from sold on a stong peak in terms of ONI, but nor do I really think that it matters much.

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15 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The NAO is much harder to predict than the Pacific, and it could be a -NAO Winter, as the trend for Greenland blocks has picked up over the last few Winter's. The 10mb vortex could be strong with La nina/+qbo combo, but a south, or SE-based -NAO may not be hard to come by. In the 1960s/1970s, -NAO's picked up in the later part of the -PDO phase, then +NAO's picked up in the later part of the +PDO phase in the 1990s..  I monitor May - Sept N. Atlantic SSTs, as they are a really good predictor of the Wintertime NAO state, and so far they are a little negative in prediction (~ -0.5).

One more note on this....I think the run on more negative NAO seasons will hold off until we get closer to solar min, as descending solar is pretty averse to such and outcome.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One more note on this....I think the run on more negative NAO seasons will hold off until we get closer to solar min, as descending solar is pretty averse to such and outcome.

Think at least moderate is a good bet. Talked about this with @GaWx the other day, but this may be a case where the RONI is strong but the ONI is only indicating high end moderate. The RONI is way ahead of the ONI right now

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3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Think at least moderate is a good bet. Talked about this with @GaWx the other day, but this may be a case where the RONI is strong but the ONI is only indicating high end moderate. The RONI is way ahead of the ONI right now


 Check this tweet out from met. Ben Noll as it actually has a prog of RONI!

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1793235394219434190

In a warming world, it's becoming increasingly difficult to disentangle El Niño events from the climate change signal. In other words, when the entire equatorial Pacific Ocean is anomalously warm -like it was in recent months- it can be hard to distinguish the signal from the noise! The Relative Niño 3.4 Index is calculated by subtracting the tropical mean sea surface temperature anomaly (20˚N-20˚S) from the Niño 3.4 Index and multiplying by a scaling factor.

The relative index describes the onset of convection better, is not contaminated by global warming, and can be monitored and forecast in real-time.
 

This suggests that La Niña-like atmospheric patterns may build in the months ahead, likely starting before an official La Niña event is classified by most international centers. This is of significance to hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean and weather patterns across the planet.

—————————————
This is the first time I’ve ever seen a model prog for RONI! It is the C3S, an average of most of the major models of the world. (See image below) It’s showing RONI-ONI to be -0.67 in May (near what it was FMA) and -0.55 in Oct. Based on this graph, it’s showing a prog of ASO ONI to be ~-0.60 (weak La Niña) but ASO RONI to be ~-1.15 (moderate La Niña), a truer reflection of the predicted strength of La Niña since it is negating the surrounding tropical waters’ warming:

IMG_9683.jpeg.bd649b8b95346a6d0bf369ae343e5086.jpeg
 

RONI retrospectively calculated back to 1950:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Think at least moderate is a good bet. Talked about this with @GaWx the other day, but this may be a case where the RONI is strong but the ONI is only indicating high end moderate. The RONI is way ahead of the ONI right now

That’s where I’m at, it may not quite reach strong by ONI but I would be surprised if the Niña remained weak. Whether it’s moderate or strong it should be a major pattern driver regardless.

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On 5/20/2024 at 9:40 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is actually something that I was privy to....the disconnect between the MEI and ONI means that ENSO will not be as prominent a driver and thus extra tropical influences will be. What I failed to recognize is just how anaomalous the WPO would become and that is what ran the show. While it can meana colder outcome due to the reduced likeliehood of a stronger ENSO event inundating theh igher latitudes with warmth, that isn't necessarily the case in the event we end up withman extra tropical driver doing the same thing, which is what the ++WPO/-PDO combo did.

I was reading a recent paraphrase republication about the NE Pacific warm pools being a recurring consequence associated with changing circulation modes ( teleconnection). 

Those that try and correlate these long terms air-sea coupled correlations in winter projections may find this useful ...

https://phys.org/news/2024-04-atmospheric-teleconnections-sustain-blobs-northeast.html

(the original source material is linked - )

The WPO's influence/factorization in the discussion, notwithstanding, the NE PAC/'EPO' loading is enhanced(ing) these N/A cold outbreaks.  Intuitively counter to CC motif as it may be.

 

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6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One more note on this....I think the run on more negative NAO seasons will hold off until we get closer to solar min, as descending solar is pretty averse to such and outcome.

It's possible.. this is a pretty decent correlation. https://ibb.co/hKxYby3

https://ibb.co/C7Pf8FK   https://ibb.co/KNws8fF

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19 hours ago, GaWx said:


 Check this tweet out from met. Ben Noll as it actually has a prog of RONI!

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1793235394219434190

In a warming world, it's becoming increasingly difficult to disentangle El Niño events from the climate change signal. In other words, when the entire equatorial Pacific Ocean is anomalously warm -like it was in recent months- it can be hard to distinguish the signal from the noise! The Relative Niño 3.4 Index is calculated by subtracting the tropical mean sea surface temperature anomaly (20˚N-20˚S) from the Niño 3.4 Index and multiplying by a scaling factor.

The relative index describes the onset of convection better, is not contaminated by global warming, and can be monitored and forecast in real-time.
 

This suggests that La Niña-like atmospheric patterns may build in the months ahead, likely starting before an official La Niña event is classified by most international centers. This is of significance to hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean and weather patterns across the planet.

—————————————
This is the first time I’ve ever seen a model prog for RONI! It is the C3S, an average of most of the major models of the world. (See image below) It’s showing RONI-ONI to be -0.67 in May (near what it was FMA) and -0.55 in Oct. Based on this graph, it’s showing a prog of ASO ONI to be ~-0.60 (weak La Niña) but ASO RONI to be ~-1.15 (moderate La Niña), a truer reflection of the predicted strength of La Niña since it is negating the surrounding tropical waters’ warming:

IMG_9683.jpeg.bd649b8b95346a6d0bf369ae343e5086.jpeg
 

RONI retrospectively calculated back to 1950:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

We have basically been in a background Niña state for years now. The added effects of AGW just exaggerates everything

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1975-76 was the opposite of this year. That one was considered a strong la nina by the NOAA ONI (peaked at -1.7), while the RONI only peaked at -1.14

1976 clearly marked the transion from a la nina state (which began in 1949-50) to an el nino state. The question is whether this current la nina state started in 1998, 2005, or 2007. If it started in 1998, then the la nina state should be coming to an end soon. If in 2007, we might have another decade before we transition back into an el nino state.

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1975-76 was the opposite of this year. That one was considered a strong la nina by the NOAA ONI (peaked at -1.7), while the RONI only peaked at -1.14
1976 clearly marked the transion from a la nina state (which began in 1949-50) to an el nino state. The question is whether this current la nina state started in 1998, 2005, or 2007. If it started in 1998, then the la nina state should be coming to an end soon. If in 2007, we might have another decade before we transition back into an el nino state.
We have seen non stop La Niña like tropical convective forcing from the MJO since 15-16 with very few breaks. This year should be no different. I’m pretty confident we see MJO phases 4-6 (Maritime Continent/eastern IO) highly favored this coming winter given the Niña, -PDO and neutral to negative IOD
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Central-subsurface is holding -4c anomalies.. I think we heading for a Moderate La Nina per the ONI (Keep in mind the global warming trend, which is about +0.3c for ENSO since the 1950s.. that's why last Winter's -PDO pattern was such an anomaly, and heightened the importance of the -PDO in these recent times..)

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On 5/23/2024 at 7:21 AM, snowman19 said:

We have basically been in a background Niña state for years now. The added effects of AGW just exaggerates everything

This in conjunction with GW is why El Nino had a difficult time coupling last season and we continued to see so much Maritime forcing. Thus those saying "See, I told you strong El Nino means warm" have no clue what really went on.

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23 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

1975-76 was the opposite of this year. That one was considered a strong la nina by the NOAA ONI (peaked at -1.7), while the RONI only peaked at -1.14

1976 clearly marked the transion from a la nina state (which began in 1949-50) to an el nino state. The question is whether this current la nina state started in 1998, 2005, or 2007. If it started in 1998, then the la nina state should be coming to an end soon. If in 2007, we might have another decade before we transition back into an el nino state.

I think you could say 1998....normally a major ENSO event will help to trigger a multi decadal shift like that. We had the 1972 major El Nino leading that shift and the 1998 super El Nino later in the 90s. I feel like this -PDO cycle will end late this decade. I know some of the space weather/solar guys feel the same way.

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This in conjunction with GW is why El Nino had a difficult time coupling last season and we continied to see so much Maritime forcing. Thus those saying "See, I told you strong El Nino means warm" have no clue what really went on.

 This GW over-exaggerated the strength of this last El Niño as it made it appear to peak at borderline strong/super (per ONI) vs it for all practical purposes really peaking at borderline moderate/strong (per RONI). In other words, the contrast with surrounding tropical waters wasn’t as large as the ONI suggested. The MEI suggested an even weaker Nino peak.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think you could say 1998....normally a major ENSO event will help to trigger a multi decadal shift like that. We had the 1972 major El Nino leading that shift and the 1998 super El Nino later in the 90s. I feel like this -PDO cycle will end late this decade. I know some of the space weather/solar guys feel the same way.

This in conjunction with the solar min is why I feel like we will play catch up in terms up seasonal snowfall along the east coast near the turn of the decade.

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44 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 This GW over-exaggerated the strength of this last El Niño as it made it appear to peak at borderline strong/super (per ONI) vs it for all practical purposes really peaking at borderline moderate/strong (per RONI).

Totally agree. It was moderate all things considered...the thing is that the forces competing with El Nino to negate its influence to that of a moderate event also conspired to ruin winter in the east, so we didn't benefit from it. This is why some of the mega-el nino crowd is misguidededly claiming victory. This is the crux of why I think @raindancewx has had so much success of late.....he incorporates what is actually happening around the globe so heavily into his outlooks that he is less likely to be run astray by any one factor such as ENSO, etc. He could anticipate that while El Nino would not be as prominent a driver as many had figured, the weather around the globe was still behaving in a manner consistent with East coast dud-seasons. This will become an increasingly crucial aspect of seasonal forecasting as CC continues to assert itself, thus altering the interaction of the myriad of global factors that we consider. Some really prescient techniques on his part. We need to not stop focusing so much on what the global atmosphere is saying to us and start focusing more on what its actually doing. Its like the old addage with respect to people..."actions speak louder than words"...we really need to adhere to this within the context of seasonal forecasting during an expedited rate of CC. What the globe is saying is often no longer consistent with its actions and seasonal forecasters need to take heed and adapt to this reality.

I think I am on the right track, but obviously have a lot to learn and being weak with respect to statistics makes it a taller task for me.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This in conjunction with GW is why El Nino had a difficult time coupling last season and we continied to see so much Maritime forcing. Thus those saying "See, I told you strong El Nino means warm" have no clue what really went on.

Even during the super El Niño of 15-16, when region 3.4 hit +3.1C at the end of November, we still saw strong MJO forcing in Niña phase regions. It’s a symptom of the overall background state of the PAC. This has been the theme since, which is why I think we see a lot of phase 4-6 MJO forcing this coming winter, especially given a coupling -ENSO. I would take it a step further and argue that this (and AGW) is the reason for the record low arctic sea ice and why Siberian snowcover buildup doesn’t work as it should with the NAM/AO

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28 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Even during the super El Niño of 15-16, when region 3.4 hit +3.1C at the end of November, we still saw strong MJO forcing in Niña phase regions. It’s a symptom of the overall background state of the PAC. This has been the theme since, which is why I think we see a lot of phase 4-6 MJO forcing this coming winter, especially given a coupling -ENSO. I would take it a step further and argue that this (and AGW) is the reason for the record low arctic sea ice and why Siberian snowcover buildup doesn’t work as it should with the NAM/AO

Right. Some think it may be permanent, but I find that hard to believe.....the planet will find some mechanism to achieve balance IMHO. If we're being honest, this West Pac warm pool is the vehicle through which the globe is balancing after all of those "warm blob" seasons last decade, when the west had a huge muti-year drought. Like I have said, still paying for 2014-2015 back this way. :lol: 

And yes...I still feel like it was worth it.

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19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right. Some think it may be permanent, but I find that hard to believe.....the planet will find some mechanism to achieve balance IMHO. If we're being honest, this West Pac warm pool is the vehicle through which the globe is balancing after all of those "warm blob" seasons last decade, when the west had a huge muti-year drought. Like I have said, still paying for 2014-2015 back this way. :lol: 

And yes...I still feel like it was worth it.

The wishcasting back in 15-16 was unreal. I know you remember it well. No disrespect to him, but Judah Cohen was all in on a very cold winter because of the SAI and arctic sea ice. And of course, JB was in full on delusional mode and said it was a “west-based” super El Niño and used his default Nino “analogs” of 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03 and 09-10. It was surreal 

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I think as continue to see more frequent anomalous nodes of warmth throughout the planet as a byproduct of CC, we will also continue to see drastic shifts like this that are more preavlent than in the past. This is because not only will the need for the plaent to budget for and redistribute said heat nodes impact the atmosphere, but we will also see compensatory regimes several years or even decades down the line. This will lead to a lot of knee-jerk conclusions among scientists and this is what we are already witnessing.

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5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The wishcasting back in 15-16 was unreal. I know you remember it well. No disrespect to him, but Judah Cohen was all in on a very cold winter because of the SAI and arctic sea ice. And of course, JB was in full on delusional mode and said it was a “west-based” super El Niño and used his default Nino “analogs” of 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03 and 09-10. It was surreal 

I bought into that to a degree...not due to JB....I don't even read him. In a way, it was the same trap that I fell into this year, but at least now I realize it. Getting things wrong and progress are not mutually exclusive. Its a lack on insight into what led one astray that ultimately precludes progress, which is why refusal to admit error is so detrimental. 

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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I bought into that to a degree...not due to JB....I don't even read him. In a way, it was the same trap that I fell into this year, but at least now I realize it. Getting things wrong and progress are not mutually exclusive. Its a lack on insight into what led one astray that ultimately precludes progress, which is why refusal to admit error is so detrimental. 

Unlike some others, you learned and moved on. It’s akin to how every winter, JB and his followers use the SOI voodoo, no matter what the ENSO state to predict cold and snow for the east coast (-SOI = east coast trough), that correlation works only during El Niños, not La Nina’s. We can be deep in the throws of a Niña event and they all start hemming and hawing that the SOI went negative and a huge east coast trough is coming soon. They never learn

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11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Unlike some others, you learned and moved on. It’s akin to how every winter, JB and his followers use the SOI voodoo, no matter what the ENSO state to predict cold and snow for the east coast (-SOI = east coast trough), that correlation works only during El Niños, not La Nina’s. We can be deep in the throws of a Niña event and they all start hemming and hawing that the SOI went negative and a huge east coast trough is coming soon. They never learn

Kind of like the ACE during La Nina.

Not that it matters, but I don't think he is as clueless as he appears. I just think he became enslaved by capitalism so much that he began forecasting backwards and seeking out data to support a preconceived notion out of deference to the all mighty dollar. 

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20 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I bought into that to a degree...not due to JB....I don't even read him. In a way, it was the same trap that I fell into this year, but at least now I realize it. Getting things wrong and progress are not mutually exclusive. Its a lack on insight into what led one astray that ultimately precludes progress, which is why refusal to admit error is so detrimental. 

Hey, seasonal forecasts from most modeling was all in too with a decent east coast winter on balance, not to mention the Euro weeklies. Get the Indian Ocean to cool along with other global oceans along the lines of what most modeling is showing, and we'll have our chances this winter imho. But the modeling has got to be closer to right than wrong on the matter unlike their forecasts for last winter.

Obviously, there's nothing pointing to a blockbuster winter in the east, but how often does that happen and be right? Some winters that looked cr@ppy on paper beforehand have managed to dump some decent snows imby when I  lived near BWI, and they, plus a few more, did likewise in my current location. 

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 The WCS PDO for May is headed for ~-1.8. Based on the avg ratio between the PDO of WCS and NOAA, I’m projecting the NOAA May PDO will come out to ~-2.7 (-2.5 to -2.9), easily the lowest in May since 1950. Even a -2.45 would be the lowest May since 1950:

IMG_9693.png.5c5ea863ffa82c5e40b0a473a867d8f1.png

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4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Hey, seasonal forecasts from most modeling was all in too with a decent east coast winter on balance, not to mention the Euro weeklies. Get the Indian Ocean to cool along with other global oceans along the lines of what most modeling is showing, and we'll have our chances this winter imho. But the modeling has got to be closer to right than wrong on the matter unlike their forecasts for last winter.

Obviously, there's nothing pointing to a blockbuster winter in the east, but how often does that happen and be right? Some winters that looked cr@ppy on paper beforehand have managed to dump some decent snows imby when I  lived near BWI, and they, plus a few more, did likewise in my current location. 

I don't think we have had a rock-bottom dreadful La Nina winter on the heels of a hyper active tropical season, so there is that. I think the floor this year is a 1999-1999, 2005-2006 (that one Feb event was a fluke) type of season, but the envelop of potential outcomes is much more densely clustered near the floor than the ceiling, if that makes sense...

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1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 The WCS PDO for May is headed for ~-1.8. Based on the avg ratio between the PDO of WCS and NOAA, I’m projecting the NOAA May PDO will come out to ~-2.7 (-2.5 to -2.9), easily the lowest in May since 1950. Even a -2.45 would be the lowest May since 1950:

IMG_9693.png.5c5ea863ffa82c5e40b0a473a867d8f1.png

The PDO and PMM are screaming (as are the ENSO region subsurface anomalies and declining IOD) that a very significant Niña event is coming. There was some talk on twitter this morning that the RONI may make a run a rivaling 73-74 and 88-89, while the ONI only gets to “high-end” moderate for the lowest trimonthly. Got to start keeping an eye on the trade winds/EWBs and SOI responses going forward. This ought to be interesting to watch

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5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The PDO and PMM are screaming (as are the ENSO region subsurface anomalies and declining IOD) that a very significant Niña event is coming. There was some talk on twitter this morning that the RONI may make a run a rivaling 73-74 and 88-89, while the ONI only gets to “high-end” moderate for the lowest trimonthly. Got to start keeping an eye on the trade winds/EWBs and SOI responses going forward. This ought to be interesting to watch

 - The equivalent current RONI is likely already down to ~-0.5 vs the equivalent ONI of ~+0.1.

- There have been 21 sub -1.75 NOAA PDO Mays on record. Of those, 19 of the subsequent winters had a -PDO. The other 2, 1880-1 (Nino) and 1922-3 (neutral) had a neutral PDO.

Edit:

- There have been 22 +1.25+ NOAA PDO Mays on record. Of those, only 3 of the subsequent winters had a -PDO (all 3 followed mod+ El Niños and lead to cold neutral winters) vs 6 neutral and 13 +PDO. 

- So, correlation of May to winter PDO strong.

- Thus with almost certain La Niña upcoming, -PDO this winter very likely

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