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February 2024 mid/ long range


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12 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Lots more ensembles joined in today for the NH party,just dont like the mean going into the COD,it wouldnt be a game breaker but still

ECMWF-Charts (16).png

Eric webb believes the pattern moving forward closely resembles 2010 progression. He tweeted that western hemisphere to Indian Ocean slow moving mjo treck. He tweeted a few hours ago 

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I still think what Carver has been saying is close ,the heights the EPS is showing fall into East China and Korea as we get into Feb is a cold sign for us here,sometimes the jet extension can stay in East Asia despite,still some concern where the MJO will be at and where it actually goes

5b269fd3-62a3-43c9-a533-8bfd900c6d02.gif

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9 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I bet some folks in TRI SWVA and Eastern KY would have liked the overnight Euro too:

giphy.gif

Yeah, the GFS has the same storm, but sends it out to sea. The Euro is a little confusing with low pressure popping up everywhere. Some potential in the time period for sure! 

afc1a3b6-3ce9-429b-b960-ad00045d3a47.gif

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Might be about to hit “go time” for tracking. The MJO is almost out of 6, but did slow down a bit since yesterday.  There is still a forecasted loop back into warm phases, but that is beginning to feel like a “Lucy pulls the football” look - meaning the MJO is going to keep progressing (albeit maybe slower) and not stall in warm phases.  The MJO plots at CPC this morning are pretty much a “choose your own adventure” bank of options.  The good thing is that most of them keep the MJO to the left of the plot which is cooler or cold.    I think decent cold is still in the Feb 14 range - give or take 48 hours.  There is still an outside chance this gets here a bit earlier (not referencing the cold shot just before that).

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As for the Feb 5 system, energy transfer is an issue on the Euro.  The GFS is likely progressive.  Decent little window if it holds.   If that deepens on the coast that could bring the cold in quicker.  Maybe we can steal a storm before the bear cold arrives.

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19 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I bet some folks in TRI SWVA and Eastern KY would have liked the overnight Euro too:

giphy.gif

Looks like a hybrid Miller w some energy transfer verbatim through middle TN.  Very good MA look and maybe even North Carolina.  

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Look at the Euro and look at the Miller A tracks from Feb 1960. The Euro is slightly further north at the start.

00000000snow60.jpg

 

Here are some snowfall totals for Feb 13-14th 1960.

Memphis 1.1 inches

Jackson Tn 3.5 inches

Nashville 6 inches.

Murfreesboro 8 inches

Chattanooga 9.5 inches

Cookeville 10 inches

Tri-Cities 11 inches

Middlesboro Ky 14 inches

Williamsburg Ky 15 inches

Crossville 15 inches

MBY 16.5 inches

Norris 16.5 inches

Tazewell 17 inches

Monteagle 17.5 inches

Knoxville 18.3 inches

 

The 18th-19th event that followed it was a widespread 4-8 inch event.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, John1122 said:

The Euro just had a great pass in what would likely be a nice winter storm here. I refuse to believe that a low dropping from 997 to 991 as it skirts the northern gulf coast from Louisiana over the panhandle of Florida would be precip free here. 

It's bombogenesis once it hits the gulf stream.Surprised it didnt go OTS 

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Winter Storm Warnings up for the Apps....

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
255 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-280900-
/O.NEW.KMRX.WS.W.0002.240128T1200Z-240129T1800Z/
Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-
Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Including the cities of Doeville, Mountain City, Neva,
Shady Valley, Trade, Laurel Bloomery, Hartford, Cedar Creek,
Erwin, Unicoi, Limestone Cove, Hampton, Cades Cove, Elkmont,
and Gatlinburg
255 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected above 3000 feet. Total snow
  accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with higher amounts possible on
  the mountain peaks. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Mountains of East Tennessee above 3000 feet.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds and snow
  will reduce visibility to less than a quarter mile at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

 

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I will say this...if the Euro Weeklies had been derived from 12z, I don't think they would have looked nearly as good.  It could be a hiccup, but 12z was the first time that global ensembles seem to break from their Weeklies.  What does that mean?  It means it would have been very tough to see global ensembles move to a trough in the East after d16.  This disconnect also happened right after Christmas.  Even the Weeklies blinked and then returned to their old, colder forecasts.   It took a few days for ensembles to adjust to MJO forecasts.  Day10-16...it seems global forecast models struggle w/ cold, and wash it completely out.  But there may be reasons for that this time.  

Again, as for the MJO...it is a mess.  Choose your own adventure.   What we do know is that right now it has raced across phase 6 which it was not forecast to do.  That said, it "should" stall (during the next few days) given satellite and OLR looks.  Where it stalls is going to be important.  The MJO definitely slowed on this morning's run.  Getting most of the way across 6 is a big victory.  Let's see if it hits the wall.  If it continues to race across 7, we will know the MJO plots were in major error.  Big test coming up.

Even Cosgrove this evening seems to have been knocked of his spot a bit by the warm, warm run of the 12z GFS suite.  Let's hope it was a blip.

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4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I will say this...if the Euro Weeklies had been derived from 12z, I don't think they would have looked nearly as good.  It could be a hiccup, but 12z was the first time that global ensembles seem to break from their Weeklies.  What does that mean?  It means it would have been very tough to see global ensembles move to a trough in the East after d16.  This also happened right after Christmas.   It took a few days for ensembles to adjust to MJO forecasts.

Again, as for the MJO...it is a mess.  What we do know is that right now it has raced across phase 6 which it was not forecast to do.  That said, it "should" stall given satellite and OLR looks.  Where it stalls is going to be important.  The MJO definitely slowed on this morning's run.  Getting most of the way across 6 is a big victory.  Let's see if it hits the wall.

Even Cosgrove this evening seems to have been knocked of his spot a bit by the warm, warm run of the 12z GFS suite.  Let's hope it was a blip.

I'm hoping we don't continue to kick the can down the road, which would lead to the weeklies getting pushed back more and more. I definitely want one more opportunity at a return to winter here. 

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JB has a great post on the past ten days of MJO trends.  It is truly astounding at how bad the plot has been.  I didn't realize it had been that bad.  I kind of suspected it, but yikes.  I would screenshot a portion of his post, but I think those are his thoughts...and are his to share publicly or not.  I don't Twitter often, so maybe he posted those three plots.  

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8 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

I'm hoping we don't continue to kick the can down the road, which would lead to the weeklies getting pushed back more and more. I definitely want one more opportunity at a return to winter here. 

The 12z GFS wasn't a can kick(from timeline which has been discussed here) that I could tell.  Cosgrove had thought that the cold would return well before the 12th.   Earlier operational runs supported that return to cold earlier in the timeline....the 12z operational booted that. I think he has adjusted his thinking and is saying President's Day though early March.  I will say, I didn't like see the EPS stall that trough out West.  The control kept it moving.  This is feels like late December deja vu.  The conversations are very similar.  What we do know is the firing of convection over the MC was strong, and at some point it should be reflected on the CPC MJO plots.  I have been super adamant that this warm spell was going to be legit.  I would not be surprised at some can kicking as these eastern ridges are TOUGH to eliminate.  They are super stable.  I am just riding with the ensembles right now.

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5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

JB has a great post on the past ten days of MJO trends.  It is truly astounding at how bad the plot has been.  I didn't realize it had been that bad.  I kind of suspected it, but yikes.  I would screenshot a portion of his post, but I think those are his thoughts...and are his to share publicly or not.  I don't Twitter often, so maybe he posted those three plots.  

I wonder which model really has the best idea of the mjo progression or has had the best idea? Larry Cosgrove said yesterday for a return to winter, we want the mjo to progressively move from the warm phases to cold phases with a strong enough coherent structure. I definitely hope it will do that

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