Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations

[Powerball]

On another subject, although DFW was socked in low clouds much of the day before the convective debris took over (so wasn't all that easy to tell), there's quite a bit of smoke out there from ongoing wildfires in Mexico, making for very hazy conditions.

Supposedly, it's coming from the widespread wildfires ongoing down in Mexico.

That may also explain why areas that haven't had anything formidable headed their way but still get the cirrus blowoff have been getting so dark.

[Chinook]

I have heard that this area around New Boston TX, along I-30, to near the Texarkana area had a tornado emergency! There has not been a tornado report on the SPC database.

[Powerball]

Provided there's not much cloud cover for once, DFW has a shot at its first 100*F high of the season tomorrow.

[Stx_Thunder]

Both GFS & Euro been showing stronger and stronger signs of the furnace 500mb High weakening & moving further southwest away from the state a bit this upcoming week (could stay that way into at least the first week of June also which could increase flooding potential again in NTX/ETX as both models also trending upward on rainfall totals into beginning of June).

It’s definitely looking more convectively interesting with likely, better or bigger MCS activity propagating farther south (including into STX with some heavy rainfall with 2+ in. PW projections which is easily achievable by this time of year), starting later on Memorial Day. But particularly Tuesday - Wednesday and late this week/end, as there’s very notably steep ML lapse rates, along with DL shear 40 - 50 kts projected over a good amount of the state.

Both still abnormally high in late May now.

 

-  Saw ML lapse rates on Brownsville 12z sounding two mornings ago on Friday, of 9+ C/km.

Definitely steeper than normal down here in late May (even 8 too). No doubt about that.

 

On 5/18/2024 at 3:32 PM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

From about US 84 and S, it looks to get rather dry and quite warm.  I think this is the beginning of summer in STX and the next real chance of significant rain is August, more likely September.  Not sure the STR ever gets far enough N that we'll see inverted troughs breaking off from the jet and coming back W under the ridge.  Land of pure speculation, next best chance for significant weather is probably in September when the STR breaks down enough for the return of rain producing fronts (not the weak wind shifts with small dewpoint drop that can make it here even mid-summer, but don't produce sensible weather because of high heights and subsidence.

 

Good news, for customers whose 'weatherheads' (pipe that carries electric down to the house and external breaker box) aren't damaged, CenterPoint thinks most customers will have electricity by Wednesday.  Which will be a good thing considering the heat.  Low 90sF all week with dews above 70F.

 

OTOH, in NTX, DFW is already in a 15% risk for severe storms on Thursday.  They have probably 2 more weeks of spring before the high heights shut down spring.

 

 

You may want to keep in mind that South TX can actually get upstream MCS activity typically through about mid June. Especially with SS flow influence still in place in the mid-upper levels (as has been the case many years during past 2 decades).

It may be officially summer at the surface around here (that’s always typical by later May in STX). But that isn’t normally the case aloft most years until the latter part of June.

Was not convinced last weekend on EPS H5 height projections for the end of May as it was wobbling around on runs and going as high as almost 600 dm. Which just isn’t plausible so early in the hot season. Even in STX. Especially with EN influence basically gone now. GEFS was more consistent, and SPC daily observed UA 500mb data down here during this past week has been much more closely reflecting GEFS H5 height prediction from last week (staying around 590dm which is pretty close to normal in STX).

I’m very convinced now we’re not going to have the kind of hot/dry persistence of Summer 2023. At least around the coastal region. With LN creeping back, there’ll likely be some more tropical activity also later this summer. But doesn’t translate to a hurricane for TX coast this year. Especially coming off a very formidable EN phase just this past winter - spring. That’s never happened before on climate history the past couple decades.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

6 hours ago, Stx_Thunder said:

Both GFS & Euro been showing stronger and stronger signs of the furnace 500mb High weakening & moving further southwest away from the state a bit this upcoming week (could stay that way into at least the first week of June also which could increase flooding potential again in NTX/ETX as both models also trending upward on rainfall totals into beginning of June).

It’s definitely looking more convectively interesting with likely, better or bigger MCS activity propagating farther south (including into STX with some heavy rainfall with 2+ in. PW projections which is easily achievable by this time of year), starting later on Memorial Day. But particularly Tuesday - Wednesday and late this week/end, as there’s very notably steep ML lapse rates, along with DL shear 40 - 50 kts projected over a good amount of the state.

Both still abnormally high in late May now.

 

-  Saw ML lapse rates on Brownsville 12z sounding two mornings ago on Friday, of 9+ C/km.

Definitely steeper than normal down here in late May (even 8 too). No doubt about that.

 

You may want to keep in mind that South TX can actually get upstream MCS activity typically through about mid June. Especially with SS flow influence still in place in the mid-upper levels (as has been the case many years during past 2 decades).

It may be officially summer at the surface around here (that’s always typical by later May in STX). But that isn’t normally the case aloft most years until the latter part of June.

Was not convinced last weekend on EPS H5 height projections for the end of May as it was wobbling around on runs and going as high as almost 600 dm. Which just isn’t plausible so early in the hot season. Even in STX. Especially with EN influence basically gone now. GEFS was more consistent, and SPC daily observed UA 500mb data down here during this past week has been much more closely reflecting GEFS H5 height prediction from last week (staying around 590dm which is pretty close to normal in STX).

I’m very convinced now we’re not going to have the kind of hot/dry persistence of Summer 2023. At least around the coastal region. With LN creeping back, there’ll likely be some more tropical activity also later this summer. But doesn’t translate to a hurricane for TX coast this year. Especially coming off a very formidable EN phase just this past winter - spring. That’s never happened before on climate history the past couple decades.

I suspect if we get >20 NS in the Atlantic, Texas probably will get a storm.  Beta and Imelda were nothing burgers, but both caused some significant flooding in SETX.  I do suspect the ridge will be strong enough to keep any storm forming or entering in the Caribbean down in the Caribbean or Campeche.  But, as I said, >20 NS, hard to imagine Texas escapes w/o at least a TS.

 

The 500 mb Euro ensembles were bullish on summer locking in about a week ago...

[beavis1729]

Falfurrias TX was 101/82/128 this afternoon. 

[Powerball]

Looking at the list of top 10 warmest Springs for DFW, once 2024 officially closes out this week, 7 of the top 10 warmest Springs will have occured within the last 20 years.

And yes, there's a chance this Spring could end up warmer than 2022 (the last few days of May will challenge that though).

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

18 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Falfurrias TX was 101/82/128 this afternoon. 

That borders on the insane.  Not the heat, the dewpoint with that kind of heat.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

SPC going enhanced for Central Texas.  3 kn NAM forecast soundings on I-35 in Williamson County at 6 pm shows 'meh' shear, but 4000 J/Kg MLCAPE and 1400 DCAPE.  SPC also extended SLIGHT to NW Houston suburbs, not mentioning cold pool propagation directly but stating storms in this situation frequently move faster/further than modeled.  EDIT TO ADD: this time last week ensembles suggested that spring was over south of US 84.

[Stx_Thunder]

There were some pretty cold storm cloud tops on satellite earlier tonight near lower Rio Grande as the MCS activity was about to get into deep STX. But especially the MCC near Laredo off to the west (colder than -80 C tops).

Still some uncertainly in convective & severe evolution later today (especially because of likely numerous outflow interactions in CTX/NTX ). But overall, the environment aloft over much of state is still looking pretty favorable and there will likely be enough shear either way for supercells & stronger/severe clusters or segments.

Saw near 3” in. hail indications an hour ago on new individual storms ongoing over TX/OK border near/north of Wichita Falls (will likely consolidate into another MCS that’ll likely determine today’s severe for ETX/SETX during daytime today).

 

 

- - - - -

 

16 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

SPC going enhanced for Central Texas.  3 kn NAM forecast soundings on I-35 in Williamson County at 6 pm shows 'meh' shear, but 4000 J/Kg MLCAPE and 1400 DCAPE.  SPC also extended SLIGHT to NW Houston suburbs, not mentioning cold pool propagation directly but stating storms in this situation frequently move faster/further than modeled.  EDIT TO ADD: this time last week ensembles suggested that spring was over south of US 84.

Models & CAMs never do really well this time of year with especially large MCS evolution & propagation around the state (especially into southern half & coast).

Euro/EPS just wasn’t realistic with H5 heights to begin with. Especially still being very early in the hot season. Outside of convective forecasting, I don’t trust Euro anyway when it comes to temp/height related things at all. Even with cold fronts.

GFS/GEFS does better overall concerning those kinds of longer range forecasting things.

[Powerball]

The storms this morning produced a swath of 3-5" across DFW.

There's still technically a few more days left in Met. Spring. So with today's rainfall (1.91" at DFW) 2024 is going end up top 10 wettest Spring after all.

Crazy thing is, I'm not aware of any other year on record that had both a top 10 warmest Spring *AND* top 10 wettest Spring...

[cstrunk]

Well there were a few rotating storms along I-20 in East Texas this afternoon but nothing tightened up. There was one tornado warning near Marshall, TX.

Now the focus is very heavy rain. A very large flash flood warning has been issued along those same areas of I-20 for this area. Not much lightning and thunder.

[Chinook]

25 minutes ago, cstrunk said:

Well there were a few rotating storms along I-20 in East Texas this afternoon but nothing tightened up. There was one tornado warning near Marshall, TX.

Now the focus is very heavy rain. A very large flash flood warning has been issued along those same areas of I-20 for this area. Not much lightning and thunder.

>150mph delta-v with this strong tornado

[mob1]

[Stx_Thunder]

It’s been a fairly busy week for me, but did cash in on Tuesday night’s MCS from the western part of state that had a grade C+ overall, thunder show around me with some pretty frequent lightning for an hour. Not a lot of CGs though. But was nice either way. Especially before an embedded deep convective band came over me with almost constant thunder rumbles.

Watching hill country linear MCS near Austin (or its effects further south later today/tonight). Shear & instability values are still pretty high around here (50 kts eff. shear & still abnormal 8 C/km ML lapse rates, and no-brainer CAPE/moisture on 0z BRO & CRP soundings). Main svr threat (if any) with ongoing hill country MCS early this morning looks to be wind with its notable linear orientation.

These practically unlimited MCSs tracking southeast through NWTX - NTX are tracking faster and further southward now into the state with increased west-northwesterly ML flow (which should mitigate a sig flood threat also). It’s almost literally been becoming one MCS after one MCS after one MCS in the northern part since the last 2 or 3 days.

No complaints from me as long I get in on some of that trailing thunder action into this weekend. Models also showing some stronger ML shortwave energy here & there tracking through the state this weekend as well.

- - - -

Also, ‘really liking those projected H5 heights on GFS/GEFS the next couple days or so (even into second week of June). The furnace High is pretty far southwest of the state now, and not really strong either (seeing 594dm over western Mex).

 

[cstrunk]

14 hours ago, Chinook said:

>150mph delta-v with this strong tornado

Yeah that was a nasty storm in West Texas. My post was focused on my area in East Texas, I should have been more clear.

We ended up with 3.27" of rain yesterday. Just a bit of light rain this morning, 0.12" so far and I don't expect much more.

I'm looking forward to some drier weather, I need to mow my lawn!

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

There was still random CG and pockets of heavier rain at 10 am.  I'm surprised there was even an MCS today with last evenings storms.  STX looks undisturbed, and I see an outflow boundary.  And low clouds burning off.

[Powerball]

2024 wil end up being the 5th warmest Spring in record for DFW, warmer than 2022.

This will, BTW, be without a single month in Met. Spring making the top 10 warmest list.

[Stx_Thunder]

Watching evolution & southward progression of the new MCCs ongoing in the hill country (northwest of Austin), and in NM going into tonight, as of typing this. Looks to definitely effect San Antonio area this evening or overnight.

- - -

Got a strong outflow front from the MCS moving through Houston area and out over the Gulf earlier this morning with some 50 mph gusts and heard some nice CGs, along with some more modest rainfall.

Things are probably too stable now over NTX - SETX for much of anything else through tonight from this morning’s sharply organized system. But would think it’ll pick up again in those regions by later tomorrow/night. Especially with some better ML shortwave energy projected to track through the state at times this weekend on both Euro & GFS.

[Stx_Thunder]

11 hours ago, cstrunk said:

I'm looking forward to some drier weather, I need to mow my lawn!

‘Really kind of doubting that’ll happen for at least the next 2 weeks. Especially over NTX/ETX where there’s been lots of convective stuff going on quite persistently since end of April.

Even starting June now, there’s still lots of significant influence from SS still in place over all of the state. Which isn’t typical on summer’s doorstep now. Especially down around here.

Models (especially Euro & ensembles) just got way too excited on the typical, controlling furnace 500Mb High this time of year really taking over the state a few weeks ago. And we’ve been basically getting the exact opposite of that.

[Chinook]

Dallas County had a foot of rain in May

[donsutherland1]

Brownsville experienced its warmest May on record. Brownsville's May was also warmer than any June on record. Some records from Florida, Puerto Rico, and Texas:

Del Rio demolished its May and Spring records. It also had its first May extreme heat event (Clarke et al., 2014 methodology) on record. Some highlights from Del Rio:

[Powerball]

19 hours ago, Powerball said:

2024 wil end up being the 5th warmest Spring in record for DFW, warmer than 2022.

This will, BTW, be without a single month in Met. Spring making the top 10 warmest list.

Spoke too soon.

May 2024 will tie for the 10th warmest on record.

[Stx_Thunder]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1106.html

-

 

Hasn’t moved much and been going on for about 4 hours now in the same area near/around the mid-upper coast.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Severe T-Storm Watch for the coastal plain/US 59 corridor from just N of CRP into most of the HOU metro.  Storms are building and slowly moving NE into the HOU, but none are warned or look particularly strong.

 

There is a lonely but strong cell with radar indicated hail approaching DFW.

[Powerball]

Oh...

https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1797301667484008738?t=v-uBruaPqvEdOZHVjiLIEQ&s=19

[Powerball]

Looking active for DFW a few hours from now.

[Powerball]

https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1797349231419883962?t=FiBAunQE743CW32v4IiX0Q&s=19

[Powerball]

https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1797340937842291099?t=WRuyFYUyjxTkR8YHhFq0TA&s=19

[Powerball]

It's been a struggle much of the day, but with an uptick in shear the past few hours, the storms seem to be starting to forward propgate and form into a more solid line now as it pushes into the Metroplex.

Over 500 lightning strikes per minute.