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Pittsburgh, Pa Winter 2023-24 Thread.


meatwad
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NWS pretty bullish on their call.  There is going to be a narrow band of winners somewhere between Allegheny and Morgantown.  Problem is if you're outside that maxima band, you're probably dealing with subsidence and bad dendrite growth.

Pretty much all the latest mesos keep that band in Greene and Washington counties.  It will be interesting to nowcast that and see where it falls.

I thought the soundings weren't that great looking into Allegheny even yesterday in terms of maximizing potential, but I don't know how reliable those are from the mesos.

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1 hour ago, jwilson said:

NWS pretty bullish on their call.  There is going to be a narrow band of winners somewhere between Allegheny and Morgantown.  Problem is if you're outside that maxima band, you're probably dealing with subsidence and bad dendrite growth.

Pretty much all the latest mesos keep that band in Greene and Washington counties.  It will be interesting to nowcast that and see where it falls.

I thought the soundings weren't that great looking into Allegheny even yesterday in terms of maximizing potential, but I don't know how reliable those are from the mesos.

Yeah that's my fear honestly. We dealt with that with the system in January already so was hoping to avoid that. 

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2 hours ago, jwilson said:

NWS pretty bullish on their call.  There is going to be a narrow band of winners somewhere between Allegheny and Morgantown.  Problem is if you're outside that maxima band, you're probably dealing with subsidence and bad dendrite growth.

Pretty much all the latest mesos keep that band in Greene and Washington counties.  It will be interesting to nowcast that and see where it falls.

I thought the soundings weren't that great looking into Allegheny even yesterday in terms of maximizing potential, but I don't know how reliable those are from the mesos.

Thats how the storm earlier this year panned out too. It does seem like it bumped north a bit from yesterday, but its still not quite there. 

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6 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

last few runs of the HRRR have backed off quite a bit. 12z had a general 3-6 county wide with some spikes but now maxes out at 4, thought it is probably way more realistic 

I would accept a solution that settles somewhere around the 3” that the NWS is calling for. I’d love 4-6, but that seems like an unrealistic expectation.

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22 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

HRRR hasn't been great honestly but I think the 2-4 call is fine. Maybe we get lucky and see some good banding set up. Let's just hit advisory criteria so we can't complain. 

I think general 2-4 looks good, with maybe  a stripe of 5 if the front end piece is real and that higher end band hit the same area. 

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34 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Remember that this snow is mostly going to fall over a 6 hour or so period so to even get 2-4 inches it will snow at least 1/2 inch an hour which is pretty good rates. Even an inch an hour in some cases. :snowwindow:

Big fan of rates and daytime. Daytime is definitely out, but at least it looks like it won’t be in the middle of the night. I think south of the city still looks really good. I’m a little worried we northern people might not quite get the heavy stuff, but we’ll see.
 

The 2:00 advisory update now advertising “3-5 with locally higher along route 70”

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