KPITSnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Looks like we’ve lost our window for a good storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 17 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Looks like we’ve lost our window for a good storm There’s still plenty of time. Seems a storm is always lost around the week to go mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, Ahoff said: There’s still plenty of time. Seems a storm is always lost around the week to go mark. There's a reason I blocked him and his post made it clear. Anyway we still have another storm to get through before our "period". So anybody punting after two sets of model runs are crazy. Here what the EPS had today. Granted it had a +NAO but this is not a signal for no possible winter weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 20 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Looks like we’ve lost our window for a good storm Which storm are you talking about and why are you saying that? Guessing the Tuesday storm after the Friday / Saturday deal? Still too early to say one way or the other with several features that won't be resolved for awhile. Starting to think for the next one best we can hope for is similar to what we got today. Quick front end thump, although there isn't a high in as favorable of spot either, it's sliding off the coast on approach and the low center may be closer to us, which would in theory boost WAA. Getting to short of lead time for a big shift SE at this point, unless the idea of jumping to the coast comes back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: There's a reason I blocked him and his post made it clear. Anyway we still have another storm to get through before our "period". So anybody punting after two sets of model runs are crazy. Here what the EPS had today. Granted it had a +NAO but this is not a signal for no possible winter weather. You mean -NAO? Pretty beefy ridge over Greenland there. Biggest issue I see is that beast of TPV lobe just under Hudson bay. That is going to make it hard for anything to amplify without get shredded. Lift that north or further east and you have some room for something to dig and amplify then run into that and get pushed east before it can cut west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Which storm are you talking about and why are you saying that? Guessing the Tuesday storm after the Friday / Saturday deal? Still too early to say one way or the other with several features that won't be resolved for awhile. Starting to think for the next one best we can hope for is similar to what we got today. Quick front end thump, although there isn't a high in as favorable of spot either, it's sliding off the coast on approach and the low center may be closer to us, which would in theory boost WAA. Getting to short of lead time for a big shift SE at this point, unless the idea of jumping to the coast comes back. I'd say if we see any meaningful shifts they happen in the 0z suite. From just my weenie eyes it looks like the shortwave is coming ashore right around now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 It seems pretty rare too to get a polar shot of air without some snow with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 13 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I'd say if we see any meaningful shifts they happen in the 0z suite. From just my weenie eyes it looks like the shortwave is coming ashore right around now. Yeah, and today's system will on the way out too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 25 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I'd say if we see any meaningful shifts they happen in the 0z suite. From just my weenie eyes it looks like the shortwave is coming ashore right around now. 34 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: There's a reason I blocked him and his post made it clear. Anyway we still have another storm to get through before our "period". So anybody punting after two sets of model runs are crazy. Here what the EPS had today. Granted it had a +NAO but this is not a signal for no possible winter weather. You whine and cry more than anyone here. Shut up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Plus, we don’t want to be in the bullseye this far out anyway. We saw how that panned out on Saturday. Rather be on the northern end at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 44 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Plus, we don’t want to be in the bullseye this far out anyway. We saw how that panned out on Saturday. Rather be on the northern end at this point. True true. I guess we shall see I'm assuming the next storm is north than the boundary will get pushed East. Hopefully we get some clarity on the 0z runs tonight. FYI I'm done arguing. Weather only. This hobby is stressful enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 11 hours ago, Ahoff said: It seems pretty rare too to get a polar shot of air without some snow with it. I'm wondering if after this next cutter we get some better snow action on the back-end with some true arctic air coming in over very warm lake waters if we can get a favorable trajectory and a little embedded shortwave to help mix things up. Storm after is till on the Euro, and GFS seems to be at least showing the possibility of something in the same time frame too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Ron Smiley saying an inch today? That seems generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 57 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: I'm wondering if after this next cutter we get some better snow action on the back-end with some true arctic air coming in over very warm lake waters if we can get a favorable trajectory and a little embedded shortwave to help mix things up. Storm after is till on the Euro, and GFS seems to be at least showing the possibility of something in the same time frame too. Late next week also seems to be a window now. GFS and CMC both have something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: I'm wondering if after this next cutter we get some better snow action on the back-end with some true arctic air coming in over very warm lake waters if we can get a favorable trajectory and a little embedded shortwave to help mix things up. Storm after is till on the Euro, and GFS seems to be at least showing the possibility of something in the same time frame too. Monday/Tuesday next week has me very intrigued at this point. Euro much more aggressive with it. The energy at the 500mb levels get their act together and nearly get negatively tilted. The GFS is much less aggressive. The energy is more stretched out. Never really allowing it to get going. Lots of members on the EPS also show a more dynamic system. GEFS has some, but still seems kind of lost on much of a system. Definitely something to watch in the next few days. Hopefully things start trending toward the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: Monday/Tuesday next week has me very intrigued at this point. Euro much more aggressive with it. The energy at the 500mb levels get their act together and nearly get negatively tilted. The GFS is much less aggressive. The energy is more stretched out. Never really allowing it to get going. Lots of members on the EPS also show a more dynamic system. GEFS has some, but still seems kind of lost on much of a system. Definitely something to watch in the next few days. Hopefully things start trending toward the Euro. Regardless, both ensembles show it to be pretty darn chilly after the front moves through.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 6Z GFS actually trended toward the Euro for the MLK weekend storm (I guess it's running more into Tuesday now but that's how I keep identifying it). The weekend after remains perhaps more intriguing given how the players are setting up on the field. Anywhere from the 19th to 22nd, give or take. Decaying -NAO block and a TPV traversal into the 50/50 region, ideally. The ensembles look a lot better than the operationals in this regard. The energy is there on the GFS, but it's shunted south and out to sea by the TPV strength. The Euro is more favorable, with the TPV less concentrated and more elongated, which allows for that Low to pop in the Tennessee Valley and move into the OV (not ideal but right now that's unimportant). The GFS results in a boundary to our south, while the Euro brings the boundary much closer to us. The GFS really prefers keeping that blob of cold north of Wisconsin/Michigan instead of moving it out, but the trough remains in the East and that's some real cold (too cold?). The strength of that displacement of the PV is what leads to the suppressed look. It's showing negatives for lows and single digits for highs next week. Honestly, that's colder than what we typically want to see if we want snow, but it could be overdone (GFS has a habit of that), or maybe the cold shot is transient and it regulates a bit before our next storm threat. It looks like whatever happens that weekend blows up the pattern. We might have a reshuffle for the final week of January. Some of that could be influenced by the MJO moving into the Maritime Continent, but we lose the -NAO and the -AO is weakening. The good news is the pacific looks okay for now. The longer-range stuff shows a similar look to now returning in short order, early February. Probably means we don't have to cancel winter yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Been seeing the abbreviation TPV the last two seasons. Is that tropospheric polar vortex ? Thanks. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said: Been seeing the abbreviation TPV the last two seasons. Is that tropospheric polar vortex ? Thanks. Lol Yes I believe so Off the top of my head I'd be more concerned for suppression than these next two waves cutting. Regardless looks like we will have some things to track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 It's fantasy of course but the signs of winter are there. Just gotta get through one more cutter first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Yes I believe so Off the top of my head I'd be more concerned for suppression than these next two waves cutting. Regardless looks like we will have some things to track. Agree now. We're starting to see some signs as to how that wave on Monday/Tuesday can be suppressed. The confluence is trending in flatter, and the energy on the 12Z Euro and 18Z GFS are more separated / disjointed. How can we win? Well, we need that initial southern wave to outrun the confluence and get ahead of it, which to me seems less likely, or we need the energy to really consolidate and fully phase, creating a bomb that is timed right and pulls west. It happened on previous runs where the NS energy and SS energy phased properly over say Missouri or Arkansas instead of sitting back into western Nebraska. Between the two solutions, I'd say the latter is more likely right now. If the pieces of energy remain separated, we get that washed out, squashed s/w that jettisons out to sea or even bombs too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Flow behind the big cutter not a trajectory to get us LES, more west or south west. Buffalo NWS talking maybe big LES event, so we can watch it snow on TV during the Steelers game at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 50 minutes ago, jwilson said: Agree now. We're starting to see some signs as to how that wave on Monday/Tuesday can be suppressed. The confluence is trending in flatter, and the energy on the 12Z Euro and 18Z GFS are more separated / disjointed. How can we win? Well, we need that initial southern wave to outrun the confluence and get ahead of it, which to me seems less likely, or we need the energy to really consolidate and fully phase, creating a bomb that is timed right and pulls west. It happened on previous runs where the NS energy and SS energy phased properly over say Missouri or Arkansas instead of sitting back into western Nebraska. Between the two solutions, I'd say the latter is more likely right now. If the pieces of energy remain separated, we get that washed out, squashed s/w that jettisons out to sea or even bombs too late. I agree, I think we are all but assured to have suppressive flow for the MLK threat. I was really hoping we didn't go from two massive midwest blizzards to a sheared out mess, so hopefully the second option comes to fruition and we get some phasing. It would be nice to get a couple inches on the ground to go with the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Interesting. Fifth longest streak without a 2" snowfall - now at 353 days and counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 OZ for Monday Canadian looks good. GFS no good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 6-inch calendar day snowfalls have been atrocious lately. There was a 2,584 day gap that ended with a fluke 8.7" on March 21, 2018 [2-day total of 10.5"], which was promptly followed by another 985-day gap which ended with 6.8" on December 1, 2020. If not for that fluke storm [which had a lot of uncertainty, and was expected to be under 6"], we would have shattered #1 there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 9 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: 6-inch calendar day snowfalls have been atrocious lately. There was a 2,584 day gap that ended with a fluke 8.7" on March 21, 2018 [2-day total of 10.5"], which was promptly followed by another 985-day gap which ended with 6.8" on December 1, 2020. If not for that fluke storm [which had a lot of uncertainty, and was expected to be under 6"], we would have shattered #1 there. Currently, it's been 668 days since a 6"+ calendar day snowfall at PIT, which is only 35th longest. Of course, if we don't see any 6" calendar days this winter, we will quickly climb the ranks. As an aside, it's also been that long since 3" has been observed in a calendar day [good for 4th longest streak]. The last 3" or better calendar day being 3/12/2022, when 8.0" was observed - part of a 2-day total of 9.7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Yeah, things don’t look to good for early next week. Hopefully, we can squeeze out even an inch on the ground for the really cold weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 6z GFS wants to do the Tuesday thing now. Problem is, the Euro is now having none of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, TimB said: 6z GFS wants to do the Tuesday thing now. Problem is, the Euro is now having none of it. Euro is doing what is most likely gonna happen and forming the wave on further east most likely on the arctic front. Unless this amps up from a phase I just don't see this being a threat for us. Maybe we sneak an inch or two atleast but I wouldn't expect much more. Now the models this far out are gonna change so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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