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Central PA Winter 23/24


Voyager
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1 minute ago, Atomixwx said:

Doyers and Friars are about to open Spring Training. Winter can now f off.

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I just came in and this was the first post that I see - I was just watching a video that Elliott put up online this afternoon. Holy crap is he on the spring train. It's like a foregone conclusion to him it seems. Might get very interesting if something goes awry...

That said - and I've said this repeatedly. I want more snow. It's still February 22nd. It's not mid April. But, if it's not going to snow like legit snow...meh, let's move on. I've transitioned to spring clothing now (short sleeves and shorts) from my winter clothing (short sleeves and shorts) so it might as well warm up if there's no wintry precip to be had. 

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Flying down to catch a Sox game Saturday to meet a friend. [mention=1366]Itstrainingtime[/mention]'s O's are going down!*
 
*jk Boston might not win 72 games this year. 
The best thing that could have ever happened in the current state of baseball in Boston and New York is the "everyone plays everyone" format has eliminated division games from 19 to 13.

Baltimore, Tampa, and Toronto are going to absolutely teabag New York and Boston this year. Baltimore in specific. Only facing them 13 times likely makes 72 wins possible.

In the old format, I'd give the Sox 68 wins. The Yankees 74. They're going to be awful this season.

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7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I just came in and this was the first post that I see - I was just watching a video that Elliott put up online this afternoon. Holy crap is he on the spring train. It's like a foregone conclusion to him it seems. Might get very interesting if something goes awry...

That said - and I've said this repeatedly. I want more snow. It's still February 22nd. It's not mid April. But, if it's not going to snow like legit snow...meh, let's move on. I've transitioned to spring clothing now (short sleeves and shorts) from my winter clothing (short sleeves and shorts) so it might as well warm up if there's no wintry precip to be had. 

The one way a weatherman can always guarantee they will be wrong a lot is to guarantee stuff.   He got some dings this month especially the Blizzard of 93 Chuck Wagons South snowstorm.  He actually mocked people following it, at least that was the feeling I came away from reading his posts.    I did not watch the video though...so not sure what he actually said.  

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35 minutes ago, canderson said:

Show last night was great, and a nice venue. I forgot Williamsport was so far away - I legit thought it was like just an hour north. Oops. 

Only snow we saw along 22/15 was around Milton. Everywhere else was bare. 

I am so glad the show was worth the trip. I am going to do a little Williamsport promotion here. This is Williamsport's gorgeous Community Arts Center. It was the Capitol Theater when I was in school. We lost all three of our downtown movie theaters as far as first run movies were concerned by 1980. The newest one was demolished. The Rialto was taken over by a church and with a lot of help and hard work, the Capitol was transformed into this big beautiful space. No one would expect little Williamsport would have this gem but we do. If there's a show up here you're interested in, please come. You won't be sorry!

image.png.49217bdeda757ab14c1fbcdf685d4b23.png

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1 minute ago, CoralRed said:

I am so glad the show was worth the trip. I am going to do a little Williamsport promotion here. This is Williamsport's gorgeous Community Arts Center. It was the Capitol Theater when I was in school. We lost all three of our downtown theaters as far as first run movies were concerned by 1980. The newest one was demolished. The Rialto was taken over by a church and with a lot of help and hard work, the Capitol was transformed into this big beautiful space. No one would expect little Williamsport would have this gem but we do. If there's a show up here you're interested in, please come. You won't be sorry!

image.png.49217bdeda757ab14c1fbcdf685d4b23.png

Yup, that's where it was. Really nice venue and comfortable to boot - plenty of leg room (at least down around the 5th row - not sure about the balcony). Security kept kicking out those with weed pens, that was kinda annoying (the security walking around was more annoying than weed pens imo) but I get why they did it. 

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And just to "show my work" on Boston.

13 games against Baltimore. I suspect no better than 4-9 over this series.

13 games against Tampa. This may be a little closer because Tampa kinda sucks the later the season goes on. 6-7.

13 games against Toronto. I'll be generous and say 5-8.

13 games against Yankees. 6-7, 7-6, maybe 8-5 or 5-8. This could go either way. I think the Yankees are a little better, but their manager is an absolute moron, as is their entire front office collectively.

So what's that in division? 21-31. Now let's look at some of the others...

3 games vs Dodgers. Maybe you luck out and miss Yamamoto this series? 1-2

4 games vs Braves. Red Sox recently have fared better against the Braves than most, but the Braves actually got better this off-season, which I didn't think was possible. Good luck. 1-3. Unless the Sox miss Fried and/or Strider both times.

3 games vs Phillies. I don't think the Phillies are going to be any different than the last 2 seasons. They don't get going until the playoffs. I'll be generous and give the Sox a series win. 2-1.

3 games vs Dbacks. I don't know what to expect of the Dbacks, but they still have Corbin Carroll. I suspect they fall off a bit in a competitive NL West. 2-1.

3 games vs Rangers. Good luck. 0-3.

3 games vs Astros. They're the Astros until they all die. 1-2

That's an expected 7-12 against who I expect to be the non-divisional contenders. We're at 28-43. That leaves 91 games, which I would expect the Sox to hover around .500, which would be an additional 45 wins putting us at 73 wins.

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17 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

The best thing that could have ever happened in the current state of baseball in Boston and New York is the "everyone plays everyone" format has eliminated division games from 19 to 13.

Baltimore, Tampa, and Toronto are going to absolutely teabag New York and Boston this year. Baltimore in specific. Only facing them 13 times likely makes 72 wins possible.

In the old format, I'd give the Sox 68 wins. The Yankees 74. They're going to be awful this season.

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Yup.

Now they need to eliminate the entire AL/NL and regroup divisions. And then in the playoffs eliminate divisions and go by records solely. 

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Yup.
Now they need to eliminate the entire AL/NL and regroup divisions. And then in the playoffs eliminate divisions and go by records solely. 
When they expand to Salt Lake, Nashville, and Charlotte, assuming the last two towns don't end up sending Atlanta to war with baseball over the south, they'll have to do a massive realignment, make it geographic, and seed based on records. Universal DH (ugh) eliminated the need for respective leagues.

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10 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

And just to "show my work" on Boston.

13 games against Baltimore. I suspect no better than 4-9 over this series.

13 games against Tampa. This may be a little closer because Tampa kinda sucks the later the season goes on. 6-7.

13 games against Toronto. I'll be generous and say 5-8.

13 games against Yankees. 6-7, 7-6, maybe 8-5 or 5-8. This could go either way. I think the Yankees are a little better, but their manager is an absolute moron, as is their entire front office collectively.

So what's that in division? 21-31. Now let's look at some of the others...

3 games vs Dodgers. Maybe you luck out and miss Yamamoto this series? 1-2

4 games vs Braves. Red Sox recently have fared better against the Braves than most, but the Braves actually got better this off-season, which I didn't think was possible. Good luck. 1-3. Unless the Sox miss Fried and/or Strider both times.

3 games vs Phillies. I don't think the Phillies are going to be any different than the last 2 seasons. They don't get going until the playoffs. I'll be generous and give the Sox a series win. 2-1.

3 games vs Dbacks. I don't know what to expect of the Dbacks, but they still have Corbin Carroll. I suspect they fall off a bit in a competitive NL West. 2-1.

3 games vs Rangers. Good luck. 0-3.

3 games vs Astros. They're the Astros until they all die. 1-2

That's an expected 7-12 against who I expect to be the non-divisional contenders. We're at 28-43. That leaves 91 games, which I would expect the Sox to hover around .500, which would be an additional 45 wins putting us at 73 wins.

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More recently, Sox are good at excelling when expectations are low.  If Grissom takes to his starting role and runs with it and SP just does average this year, it will come down to their BP and I am going to be positive and say they sneak in as a wild card at 88 wins. 

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3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

When they expand to Salt Lake, Nashville, and Charlotte, assuming the last two towns don't end up sending Atlanta to war with baseball over the south, they'll have to do a massive realignment, make it geographic, and seed based on records. Universal DH (ugh) eliminated the need for respective leagues.

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I don't see a Salt Lake team, but Charlotte and Nashville are definitely possibilities. Austin/San Antonio have a joint plan for a team too.

But IMO baseball shouldn't expand. It's kinda watering down as is. 

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I don't see a Salt Lake team, but Charlotte and Nashville are definitely possibilities. Austin/San Antonio have a joint plan for a team too.
But IMO baseball shouldn't expand. It's kinda watering down as is. 
I wouldn't expand. I'd send Miami, Tampa, and Colorado packing and I would send a warning to Mr. Nutting that he start spending, sell the team, or they're next.

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9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The most commonly accepted Projection services have the Yankees winning the Division (both) and either TB (Fangraphs) or Tor (Pecota) as #2.    Both those services have the Red Sox winning 80/81 games. 

Good. Every single outlet last year had Baltimore finishing last or next to last. They got zero respect for their 33 game improvement from 2021 to 2022. I don't think they'll win over 100 games this year but I love the disrespect all the same. 

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46 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The one way a weatherman can always guarantee they will be wrong a lot is to guarantee stuff.   He got some dings this month especially the Blizzard of 93 Chuck Wagons South snowstorm.  He actually mocked people following it, at least that was the feeling I came away from reading his posts.    I did not watch the video though...so not sure what he actually said.  

I don't remember him mocking anyone. I do remember him saying that:

  • The Blizz storm was going to be a nothingburger
  • There would be 1 or 2 opportunities for snow between 2/15 and 3/5. We had 2 snowfalls but his first date was a little too tardy. 
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