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Central PA Winter 23/24


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6 minutes ago, canderson said:

Since winter is basically dead except maybe some white rain in late March or April, I’d give it a a B minus  

I have 19.5” snow and it was never cold. That one solid winter eeek was great though. 

I would have loved to have you as a teacher.    B- for one of the warmest winters ever and less than 2/3 of snow norm.  LOL. 

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Ironically the PV is dipping its nose down our way.   Maybe the bigger shock is modeled highs do not break 40 (or maybe 35)  Sat.      Even Frying Pan Sr. EC has it in the teens Sunday Am.   At least it is not progged to be too windy.  Windy and highs in the 30's for an end of Feb weekend is not cool without snow.    If only we had something that could take advantage of that bounty of artic air sitting just to our north.

image.thumb.png.6f690030c478d0257686096a5f3b3899.png

 

Thanks, I did not realize how potent that cold shot was. 

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16 minutes ago, canderson said:

Since winter is basically dead except maybe some white rain in late March or April, I’d give it a a B minus  

I have 19.5” snow and it was never cold. That one solid winter eeek was great though. 

I thought about this yesterday - I was planning on taking report cards for winter later in March when winter was over for sure. I still plan on doing so.

This will be fun because each of us has our own criteria - there really isn't right or wrong. It's our own perceptions. 

Some factors I will consider for my grade:

  • Comparison to most winter forecasts leading in vs reality
  • Comparison to last year
  • Snowfall total
  • Snowfall longevity
  • Cold - how much cold, how cold did it get?
  • Snow hype versus reality - were we constantly let down or not?

Some of those mean nothing to others, while others might have criteria that I didn't list. It's truly subjective. 

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6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I thought about this yesterday - I was planning on taking report cards for winter later in March when winter was over for sure. I still plan on doing so.

This will be fun because each of us has our own criteria - there really isn't right or wrong. It's our own perceptions. 

Some factors I will consider for my grade:

  • Comparison to most winter forecasts leading in vs reality
  • Comparison to last year
  • Snowfall total
  • Snowfall longevity
  • Cold - how much cold, how cold did it get?
  • Snow hype versus reality - were we constantly let down or not?

Some of those mean nothing to others, while others might have criteria that I didn't list. It's truly subjective. 

All those are good.  I keep #2 out of my thoughts vs. grading each one individually re: last year was a D- not an F because it featured some of the coldest temps we will ever see.  

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Sixty-two minutes after Nooners: 38°F and sunny. I heard a blasting sound about an hour ago that I can only imagine was the Punxsutawney Phil Gronk-spiking the football on the Old Farmer's Almanac.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

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3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

I think we're going to start flogging those who post cold and snow maps.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

MDT is currently in the top 10 (or bottom?) as to their mean temp in Feb....the coming weekend cold snap could act to push them out of it.   It is interesting weather.   Next week may push them back up though especially with the extra day this year. 

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MDT is currently in the top 10 (or bottom?) as to their mean temp in Feb....the coming weekend cold snap could act to push them out of it.   It is interesting weather.   Next week may push them back up though especially with the extra day this year. 
It's going to be interesting being on the receiving end of a flogging.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

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I would not argue with anyone that claimed this winter was worse than last winter....snow obviously better this year but last winter featured more days below 40, and colder lowest temps for both lows and highs.   The lowest low this year was only 1 degree lower than the lowest high of 15 Winter 2022-23.    There is a potential daytime high below 40 coming up this weekend and included in my count.   I think most people would rate this winter ahead of last winter but temps and hype were worse this year IMO.

 

 

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The thing is, unless you were living under a rock, you already knew going in it was going to be warmer than last year, so that really shouldn't be considered by anybody when gauging a success/failure for the season.

Almost everybody advertised more snow. It took until I think February 12-16 for the majority of this forum to get to where it was more than last year.

Compared to the last three winters, cannot be considered a failure unless you were expecting severa MECS and/or HECS, in which case, shame on you.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

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27 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

The thing is, unless you were living under a rock, you already knew going in it was going to be warmer than last year, so that really shouldn't be considered by anybody when gauging a success/failure for the season.

Almost everybody advertised more snow. It took until I think February 12-16 for the majority of this forum to get to where it was more than last year.

Compared to the last three winters, cannot be considered a failure unless you were expecting severa MECS and/or HECS, in which case, shame on you.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

From memory most forecasts I remember were predicting above average snow and at least one Mecs or Hecs.   It was not supposed to be warmer than last year either as to hype.   Would probably need to double our current snow total to get to where most forecasters predicted this winter due to El Nino.  

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3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I thought about this yesterday - I was planning on taking report cards for winter later in March when winter was over for sure. I still plan on doing so.

This will be fun because each of us has our own criteria - there really isn't right or wrong. It's our own perceptions. 

Some factors I will consider for my grade:

  • 1. Comparison to most winter forecasts leading in vs reality
  • 2. Comparison to last year
  • 3. Snowfall total
  • 4. Snowfall longevity
  • 5. Cold - how much cold, how cold did it get?
  • 6. Snow hype versus reality - were we constantly let down or not?

Some of those mean nothing to others, while others might have criteria that I didn't list. It's truly subjective. 

I’ll do a late progress report as it pertains to meteorological winter (DJF)

1. C-D ish on average. I think most generally expected a warmer start to winter and the potential for storms and cold to be later in the winter. I did not anticipate the warm December the CONUS ended up with at all, that probably should’ve been a hint. We have had opportunities and some of them have delivered but it has just not wanted to be cold for any longer stretches this winter. And we’ve had a couple bigger storms but we haven’t had pattern alignments conducive for phasing, and it’s been mostly either southern or northern stream waves… which limited opportunities for a KU type event. 

2. C+. The pattern itself has been overall more favorable than last year, especially with storm track. Most events have went under or tried to go under PA (transfer). We’ve only really had maybe a couple straight up cutters, and one of them ended up delivering my biggest snowfall of the season to date. There’s just been no cold air, there’s no persistent ridging in the PNA/EPO realm to help deliver any cold when it has actually been in Canada outside of the middle of Jan. 

3. B. I’ve personally had two winter storm warning verified events and 4 other advisory caliber ones at my home, which isn’t half bad to this point. A one off big hitter sometime in March (like a March 22, 2018 or better) would get me to a total I would consider to be in the average range here. Same could be said anywhere else in C-PA and the northern Mid-Atlantic. And of course there’s that stripe of eastern PA in the Lehigh Valley/Poconos that is already near or at average. Honestly, that we’ve achieved that considering how warm the winter has been temp wise in the northern half of the country is a small miracle. 

4. D. I’m big on pack retention, and this winter hasn’t been a good one for that. The middle 10days or so of Jan and getting to snowboard Blue Knob at 100% twice saves me from giving this criteria an F. 

5. F. There just hasn’t been any cold pattern that has stuck this winter. The one we did get in January was delayed. The Jan 6 and 9th storms came before it was actually cold, and the below normal stuff came mainly centered on about 5 days or so, where we scored a couple decent advisory level northern branch systems. The MJO’s two week+ meandering in Phase 7 after running thru 4-5-6 and then subsequent failure to run thru 8-1-2 despite what is likely an all time record reversal of the SOI from Jan to Feb probably has a part in what sunk this month overall for any kind of a truly cold pattern. 

6. F-. The hype in late Jan for what was being shown at the time in the weeklies/ long range ensembles was off the charts. Not necessarily in here, but some folks were all in on that 2010, 78, 58 type pattern. Reality ended up being meh but it’s been way worse in the snow dept, but the expectation of a big storm pattern and cold made this month a huge disappointment and later in the winter was where forecasts were being focused on for delivering the goods. 

If winter ended now I’d give it a C-, aided mainly by the snow we did get. But we got March, and I’m not writing anything off in that month yet.. esp second half of the month. 

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32 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I’ll do a late progress report as it pertains to meteorological winter (DJF)

1. C-D ish on average. I think most generally expected a warmer start to winter and the potential for storms and cold to be later in the winter. I did not anticipate the warm December the CONUS ended up with at all, that probably should’ve been a hint. We have had opportunities and some of them have delivered but it has just not wanted to be cold for any longer stretches this winter. And we’ve had a couple bigger storms but we haven’t had pattern alignments conducive for phasing, and it’s been mostly either southern or northern stream waves… which limited opportunities for a KU type event. 

2. C+. The pattern itself has been overall more favorable than last year, especially with storm track. Most events have went under or tried to go under PA (transfer). We’ve only really had maybe a couple straight up cutters, and one of them ended up delivering my biggest snowfall of the season to date. There’s just been no cold air, there’s no persistent ridging in the PNA/EPO realm to help deliver any cold when it has actually been in Canada outside of the middle of Jan. 

3. B. I’ve personally had two winter storm warning verified events and 4 other advisory caliber ones at my home, which isn’t half bad to this point. A one off big hitter sometime in March (like a March 22, 2018 or better) would get me to a total I would consider to be in the average range here. Same could be said anywhere else in C-PA and the northern Mid-Atlantic. And of course there’s that stripe of eastern PA in the Lehigh Valley/Poconos that is already near or at average. Honestly, that we’ve achieved that considering how warm the winter has been temp wise in the northern half of the country is a small miracle. 

4. D. I’m big on pack retention, and this winter hasn’t been a good one for that. The middle 10days or so of Jan and getting to snowboard Blue Knob at 100% twice saves me from giving this criteria an F. 

5. F. There just hasn’t been any cold pattern that has stuck this winter. The one we did get in January was delayed. The Jan 6 and 9th storms came before it was actually cold, and the below normal stuff came mainly centered on about 5 days or so, where we scored a couple decent advisory level northern branch systems. The MJO’s two week+ meandering in Phase 7 after running thru 4-5-6 and then subsequent failure to run thru 8-1-2 despite what is likely an all time record reversal of the SOI from Jan to Feb probably has a part in what sunk this month overall for any kind of a truly cold pattern. 

6. F-. The hype in late Jan for what was being shown at the time in the weeklies/ long range ensembles was off the charts. Not necessarily in here, but some folks were all in on that 2010, 78, 58 type pattern. Reality ended up being meh but it’s been way worse in the snow dept, but the expectation of a big storm pattern and cold made this month a huge disappointment and later in the winter was where forecasts were being focused on for delivering the goods. 

If winter ended now I’d give it a C-, aided mainly by the snow we did get. But we got March, and I’m not writing anything off in that month yet.. esp second half of the month. 

nice report card synopsis I would change the grade for No 6 however from F- to withdrawn or incomplete. We must grade properly now.  By the way, maybe some of the courses were audited so a satisfactory or unsatisfactory maybe more appropriate.  I would say no. 6 falls in the category too.  LMAO 

 

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1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

I’ll do a late progress report as it pertains to meteorological winter (DJF)

1. C-D ish on average. I think most generally expected a warmer start to winter and the potential for storms and cold to be later in the winter. I did not anticipate the warm December the CONUS ended up with at all, that probably should’ve been a hint. We have had opportunities and some of them have delivered but it has just not wanted to be cold for any longer stretches this winter. And we’ve had a couple bigger storms but we haven’t had pattern alignments conducive for phasing, and it’s been mostly either southern or northern stream waves… which limited opportunities for a KU type event. 

2. C+. The pattern itself has been overall more favorable than last year, especially with storm track. Most events have went under or tried to go under PA (transfer). We’ve only really had maybe a couple straight up cutters, and one of them ended up delivering my biggest snowfall of the season to date. There’s just been no cold air, there’s no persistent ridging in the PNA/EPO realm to help deliver any cold when it has actually been in Canada outside of the middle of Jan. 

3. B. I’ve personally had two winter storm warning verified events and 4 other advisory caliber ones at my home, which isn’t half bad to this point. A one off big hitter sometime in March (like a March 22, 2018 or better) would get me to a total I would consider to be in the average range here. Same could be said anywhere else in C-PA and the northern Mid-Atlantic. And of course there’s that stripe of eastern PA in the Lehigh Valley/Poconos that is already near or at average. Honestly, that we’ve achieved that considering how warm the winter has been temp wise in the northern half of the country is a small miracle. 

4. D. I’m big on pack retention, and this winter hasn’t been a good one for that. The middle 10days or so of Jan and getting to snowboard Blue Knob at 100% twice saves me from giving this criteria an F. 

5. F. There just hasn’t been any cold pattern that has stuck this winter. The one we did get in January was delayed. The Jan 6 and 9th storms came before it was actually cold, and the below normal stuff came mainly centered on about 5 days or so, where we scored a couple decent advisory level northern branch systems. The MJO’s two week+ meandering in Phase 7 after running thru 4-5-6 and then subsequent failure to run thru 8-1-2 despite what is likely an all time record reversal of the SOI from Jan to Feb probably has a part in what sunk this month overall for any kind of a truly cold pattern. 

6. F-. The hype in late Jan for what was being shown at the time in the weeklies/ long range ensembles was off the charts. Not necessarily in here, but some folks were all in on that 2010, 78, 58 type pattern. Reality ended up being meh but it’s been way worse in the snow dept, but the expectation of a big storm pattern and cold made this month a huge disappointment and later in the winter was where forecasts were being focused on for delivering the goods. 

If winter ended now I’d give it a C-, aided mainly by the snow we did get. But we got March, and I’m not writing anything off in that month yet.. esp second half of the month. 

Thanks for sharing. I would be very close to you on each of the categories. You made a lot of good points, probably the most insightful to me is the reminder that we probably are quite fortunate to have the snowfall totals that we do have given the temperatures. 

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49 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I have seen some comments of the last several winters being bad....20-21 MDT actually received 36" of snow in just Met winter alone making it 28th snowiest Met winter in MDT's history.   The last 2 have been stinkers snow wise.

 

 

 

 

I was sharing vivid memories yesterday about a snowstorm from 45 years ago, and yet I remember very little about the winter of 2020-21 other than it was the last time I had shoveled until this year. I just don't remember a single event for some reason. 

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21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I was sharing vivid memories yesterday about a snowstorm from 45 years ago, and yet I remember very little about the winter of 2020-21 other than it was the last time I had shoveled until this year. I just don't remember a single event for some reason. 

Dec 16th, 2020, had 9.3 at MDT.  Feb 1. 2021  banged 7.9" then several smaller events that month.   I bring those two up as both are more than any winter day since that season. 

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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Dec 16th, 2020, had 9.3 at MDT.  Feb 1. 2021  banged 7.9" then several smaller events that month.   I bring those two up as both are more than any winter day since that season. 

Okay, I remember the December storm now. Snow started during the mid to late morning hours and really cranked midday and then again late afternoon. I still don't recall the February storm. 

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30 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I was sharing vivid memories yesterday about a snowstorm from 45 years ago, and yet I remember very little about the winter of 2020-21 other than it was the last time I had shoveled until this year. I just don't remember a single event for some reason. 

Covid brain. It’s a real thing. Our minds are blocking out this years 

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