Blizzard of 93 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 12-18" for much of Lanco. 10.36" for Western Hanover. Great track on the 18z GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 MillvilleWx said to proceed with caution regarding the GFS - he's much more worried about suppression vs something amped up. And that's for the MA folks. I really, really want this to work out, especially with all of the colder temps coming. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I am not buying the GFS until Mitch shows me an ETAx that looks better. Let me see...let me see I can't put my finger on it right now, but I'll get back to you. Trust me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: MillvilleWx said to proceed with caution regarding the GFS - he's much more worried about suppression vs something amped up. And that's for the MA folks. I really, really want this to work out, especially with all of the colder temps coming. His post was professional and on target. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Let me see...let me see I can't put my finger on it right now, but I'll get back to you. Trust me. Not the Etax, but it is the 18z Ggem. Just a tad slower than 12z, not unlike the Gfs, but it otherwise looks identical to 12z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: His post was professional and on target. Especially considering what the Euro just did. I know a lot of people are tossing it...and I also have a pretty good guess why. Millville seems to think that the flow aloft gives the Euro solution some credibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Not the Etax, but it is the 18z Ggem. Just a tad slower than 12z, not unlike the Gfs, but it otherwise looks identical to 12z. The thing with the GFS that will bother me until it happens, if it happened that way, is that it is totally reliant upon a stall and climb. Almost ala Jan 2000 as to its track once offshore. Doable but I would not bet my life savings on it even 6 hours out. It is similar to betting on a Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: His post was professional and on target. Here is the @MillvilleWx post for all to read… “In all seriousness, it was a pretty solid run for a SECS, bordering MECS with the current environment. Would love to see the ECMWF get on board. By this weekend, we’ll have a good idea of the potential. This is one of the best ways to score around these parts. You’ll get some solid baroclinicity in this type of evolution. Great banding on the NW side as play within the prime isotherms of -4C, and the holy grail of -12C to -18C within the 850-600mb region. GFS is a beaut. Still more worried about a no-storm or something suppressed given the flow up top. We take and proceed with caution.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The thing with the GFS that will bother me until it happens, if it happened that way, is that it is totally reliant upon a stall and climb. Almost ala Jan 2000 as to its track once offshore. Doable but I would not bet my life savings on it even 6 hours out. It is similar to betting on a Miller B. I don't see it at that. There are 2 short waves. The first one off the se coast weakens and the 2nd comes along from the southern Plains and scoops energy left from the first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Abc27 has no snow for anyone north of NC borderSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 12z Gefs vs 18z Gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Their model also gives people tomorrow between .65" and 1.65" within a 50 mile radius with the event lasting 6 hours Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I don't see it at that. There are 2 short waves. The first one off the se coast weakens and the 2nd comes along from the southern Plains and scoops energy left from the first. Here is the GFS before anything is going on for the East Coast out Florida and beaches. That vort stalls there for 5-10 hours then climbs the coast. It is tugged by other energy but that is my point. Not a gulf low that is raging out of the SE. Just how I see it...the models that do not show snow allow that vort to escape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 12z Gefs vs 18z Gefs Good to see the 18z GEFS jump up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Here is the GFS before anything is going on for the East Coast out Florida and beaches. That vort stalls there for 5-10 hours then climbs the coast. It is tugged by other energy but that is my point. Not a gulf low that is raging out of the SE. Just how I see it...the models that do not show snow allow that vort to escape. I now see what ur saying. It's impossible to say for certain as there's no watly to prove it, but the western vort alone could do the job if the first 1 was gone. In fact, it might have less interference. But again, pure speculation. Regardless of how, it seems like all models now show the storm except for the Euro's 12z run. Methinks that changes and will be reflected on the Eps if not the 18z operational. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 13 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Abc27 has no snow for anyone north of NC border Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk they always downplay winter weather. even when its falling and its more then they forecast they never buy into it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I now see what ur saying. It's impossible to say for certain as there's no watly to prove it, but the western vort alone could do the job if the first 1 was gone. In fact, it might have less interference. But again, pure speculation. Regardless of how, it seems like all models now show the storm except for the Euro's 12z run. Methinks that changes and will be reflected on the Eps if not the 18z operational. Yea, just less complicated is what I am referring to. If this were a low sweeping in from the south, it is much easier to conceive. Thanks for not mocking my screen name or insulting me because we had a different view on something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 14 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 12z Gefs vs 18z Gefs Also 18z GEFS had a nice jump in 24 hr precip over the 12z run. There is a little more precip outside of these 24 hrs., but this gives the general idea of a good bump up for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, just less complicated is what I am referring to. If this were a low sweeping in from the south, it is much easier to conceive. Thanks for not mocking my screen name or insulting me because we had a different view on something. ? What did I miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: ? What did I miss Not you, some other posters in the past. Thanking you for being civil. Some jump to insulting quickly. One of the MA posters once told me "You don't even know what a bubbler is". So many internet tough guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Not you, some other posters in the past. Thanking you for being civil. Some jump to insulting quickly. One of the MA posters once told me "You don't even know what a bubbler is". So many internet tough guys. Ahh. I have no problem discussing differing opinions. I have no problem with people disagreeing with me. Nobody knows for certain any of this stuff...except may HM. Lol Man I miss his posts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Ahh. I have no problem discussing differing opinions. I have no problem with people disagreeing with me. Nobody knows for certain any of this stuff...except may HM. Lol Man I miss his posts. His posts are so high level, they are indiscernible now. LOL. No one can argue with him...well maybe Chuck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The 500mb differences in the Euro v GFS today were massive, not only in the timeframe of the Tues event but beyond it. I’m using 12z so i can do the Euro v GFS side by side (18z GFS was similar to 12z) GFS has a much more defined western ridge axis that extends all the way up thru BC while the Euro has a shortwave diving into Washington really dampening the ridge. The more amplified GFS allows the shortwave trough axis to rotate and generate our east coast storm. We’re going to have to continue to resolve thru the handling of these features, but certainly a sizeable event is on the table. If we amplify similar to the GFS I will note the position of the western ridge axis on the west coast. C-PA ideal positioning is the ridge axis thru Boise, ID… so it’s a little bit west. Given the cold on the playing field I think this is still okay but if we amplify a bigger event I don’t think we’d be fringed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 That's a spread, hahaSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Don't think there's any substantial changes thru 90hrs on Euro that suggest a different result had it gone out further. That's not ti say that the Eps will be the same, so we'll see how they turn out. EDIT: 90hrs has the large western vortex a touch west per Pivotal. Could just be a distinction without a difference. Who knows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 We got a couple of weeks of tracking starting next week. Gonna be fun! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 18z Euro ensemble mean/probs were in the ballpark of how it was 12z (a tad better in PA with 1”+ probs, while the Euro control at least had a system of some substance this go around with a wave of light snow thru PA and a swath of 2”+ I-95 corridor and east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: 18z Euro ensemble mean/probs were in the ballpark of how it was 12z (a tad better in PA with 1”+ probs, while the Euro control at least had a system of some substance this go around with a wave of light snow thru PA and a swath of 2”+ I-95 corridor and east. Agreed & 18z Euro Control was a good baby step in the right direction over 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 0z Blend of models is holding steady. Does anyone know from which models that it pulls its data? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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