Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: By gametime this might end up being congrats @pawatch (who did better than all of us with the last event even though he was fringed going into it) How much for TughillMatt? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 2-3" on 18Z Rgem. Coastal influence not as evident as some other HH runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Tom Russell for the win? (he tweeted this within the past hour) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Tom Russell for the win? (he tweeted this within the past hour) This coincides with Blizz's bank account going down $500 in the last 2 hours...payoff? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 GFS was puny with very little enhancement to the East. 1-2" most of East PA except some high amounts near Scranton. This is Pivotal Kuch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Still odd with cold temperatures we can't score a higher snow rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 6 minutes ago, Ruin said: Still odd with cold temperatures we can't score a higher snow rate It is not going to be that cold down our way per progs. Near 28-32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 We better get at least a couple inches because from what I'm seeing today, I'll be surprised if we get a legit threat again before the 2nd week of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 The roofus keeps drying slotting the southern tier....experimental but putting up for compare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Nice day up here at Blue Knob, 100% of the mountain is open. Barely cracked 10°F for a high up here. Good day for taking some of the trails less traveled. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Yea accumulating snow is looking iffy l to me Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Also it’s cold and it’s wonderful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Drying process continues with the 18z Ggem. Max qpf of dark blue area is .2-.299". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Just now, mitchnick said: Drying process continues with the 18z Ggem. Max qpf of dark blue area is .2-.299". I think we are leaning toward 1-3 vs. 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 19 minutes ago, canderson said: Also it’s cold and it’s wonderful. And at least here where I work, it's currently windier than it was last evening at this time. I just walked across campus to my meeting site and I was stunned how hard the wind's blowing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 48 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It is not going to be that cold down our way per progs. Near 28-32. for me is 25 for the high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I think we are leaning toward 1-3 vs. 2-4. Yeah. I saw my Nws forecast of 2-4" and thought exactly as you said. Oddly, for 2 days they said 1-2" and then changed it sometime this afternoon. I think they should have left it alone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 18z Canadian HRDPS a little better. Top link is snow qpf and bottom link shows it's still snowing end of run. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?mod=cmc_hrdps&run=18&type=SN&hi=000&hf=084&mode=latest&lang=en&map=qc https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2024011718&fh=48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z Canadian HRDPS a little better. Top link is snow qpf and bottom link shows it's still snowing end of run. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?mod=cmc_hrdps&run=18&type=SN&hi=000&hf=084&mode=latest&lang=en&map=qc https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2024011718&fh=48 Liking it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 16 minutes ago, Ruin said: for me is 25 for the high Just one model but 25 seems dubious at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Tom Russell for the win? (he tweeted this within the past hour) I love it, but I think 2 to 4 is a better call for most of us. Maybe someone gets lucky in their backyard with 5, but their ruler would likely be slanted… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 58 minutes ago, canderson said: Yea accumulating snow is looking iffy l to me Friday. Lol… yes, I was waiting for this! Quick, someone post the famous “It’s Happening” GIF! History shows that we do quite well with snow after you make posts like this. Heck, I think you cancelled the yesterday event on Sunday afternoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Just one model but 25 seems dubious at this point. Well that's what my local forcast shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Most 18z model runs support 2 to 4 for the vast majority of us in CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 I really liked that 18z HRRR run. Still snowing at the end of its 48 hour run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: I really liked that 18z HRRR run. Still snowing at the end of its 48 hour run. I’m counting the seconds until @Bubbler86 & @mitchnick say they are fringed by this… The rest of us would celebrate if this was the ground truth on Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I’m counting the seconds until @Bubbler86 & @mitchnick say they are fringed by this… The rest of us would celebrate if this was the ground truth on Friday! I'd take that, but the Wxbell maps are inflated, as usual, as Pivotal shows York Airport at 2.8" instead of 3.3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 I just noticed as well that the Wxbell depiction of the conditions at 48hrs is way overdone vs Pivotal. Check out Pivotal's surface up top and radar returns on the bottom link. That's crazy different from Wxbell. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024011718&fh=48&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp&rh=2024011718&fh=48&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I'd take that, but the Wxbell maps are inflated, as usual, as Pivotal shows York Airport at 2.8" instead of 3.3". Lol, here’s a question… Has anyone thought maybe the Pivotal maps are wrong? Why would commercial clients & hobbyists pay good money for access to maps if they weren’t accurate model output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, here’s a question… Has anyone thought maybe the Pivotal maps are wrong? Why would commercial clients & hobbyists pay good money for access to maps if they weren’t accurate model output? They've always been consistent with Ncep and Tt. But I think there may be another explanation. Your maps say 3k HRRR while Pivotal don't. That may be the reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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