Conway7305 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Ukie Ensembles. Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 hours ago, Ephesians2 said: I am promising myself that I am not going to get as invested into this potential as I did in this weekend's storm and it's still far out, but ... We have a more southwest-based block on the mean, as well as a positive PNA instead of a negative/neutral PNA. We were always relying on overrunning this weekend, which the early phase out west messed up, but this is more of a classic coastal storm look. And maybe less likely to trend NW if we get anything because of the strong blocking. Face it we're all gonna get invested lol!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Face it we're all gonna get invested lol!! I need to stick to my rule of not being invested until about 48 hours out. As soon as I got invested with this one, it went downhill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago I need to stick to my rule of not being invested until about 48 hours out. As soon as I got invested with this one, it went downhill. 6z GFS had it WAY suppressed so that's good news at this stage lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Yeah, still a little surprised at the model differences, NWS and TV mets, certainly using a blend because if they went all Euro, totals would be lower and they would be sounding the alarms louder. Will we see capitulation from EURO or all the others toward EURO, is lock in today's runs or tomorrow's? Also, GFS has the hurricane hunter data in it, as well as EURO, but heard some red taggers saying they should have spent more time on getting data on the high pressure in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Just now, JB Fins said: Yeah, still a little surprised at the model differences, NWS and TV mets, certainly using a blend because if they went all Euro, totals would be lower and they would be sounding the alarms louder. Will we see capitulation from EURO or all the others toward EURO, is lock in today's runs or tomorrow's? Also, GFS has the hurricane hunter data in it, as well as EURO, but heard some red taggers saying they should have spent more time on getting data on the high pressure in Canada. I thought that too, but @WxUSAF cleared that up a couple of pages back in the main thread. I'll see if I can find the quotes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Here it is... 1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said: It’s been a couple days since reading it, but this afternoon is when the northern energy would be in good sampling range. Fingers crossed that there are some positive changes. 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: The northern shortwave/s aren’t going to suddenly get sampled better at any particular model cycle. It won’t be a big increase in high quality data like the recon of the Baja low. It will just sort of be progressively moving into a more data-dense region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 12z Nam is def colder run vs 6z. HRRR at max run looks ok as well out in Tennessee. So far good trends. 6z Euro tick colder as well. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Looks like the Nicholson YES reaction is having issues, you will just have to imagine. Keep the good ju-ju coming Conway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 6z Euro ensembles well over a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago So far excellent trends this morning for more snow and less ice. I hope it continues. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Love to see things calm down a bit. Think we can only go up from here with higher snow totals and less ice, but I Imagine it’s still going to get dicey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Are we trending boys? Are we back? Will it snow? Can I put the generator away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Not out of the woods yet. Sunday during the day looks colder but Sunday night could be a period of freezing rain or drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago GFS was a hold, with double digit snowfall totals for Central Virginia with much less freezing rain. It hasn't exactly been performing the best, but at least didn't trend in the wrong direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago GFS looked great but it doesn't have much support. It's the only model as of now that doesn't have the primary low getting into WV/OH....hence it stays colder longer before the flip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Def keep the generator out lol. Won’t take much to mess things up around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Looks like 12z holding, even better accumulations on GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago It would be ideal -double digit snow and then sleet to end. Perfect -give us that -call it a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 14 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: GFS looked great but it doesn't have much support. It's the only model as of now that doesn't have the primary low getting into WV/OH....hence it stays colder longer before the flip. European model was Southeast -European ensembles were…obviously the Ukie... even the CMC was more southeast even though it brings still mostly mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I declare the Euro shall fall and bow dowb to tbe GFS. All hail the GFS On a serious note GFS has really been consistent the last 24 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick_LeBoof Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Trends are looking much better for us in RVA. Seems like the bleeding has stopped for now. I'm excited to see how the NAM models the mid-level thermals. This seems to now be the primary focus for our totals now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago We switch to rain here in the NNK unfortunately which hopefully doesn’t wash everything away. At least on some guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago UK is a good hit before the changeover. Further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Looking at 12Z models i dont think Storm watch is needed for the peninsula. GFS gives us a chance for a storm around 210hr and agrees with last nights EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 222 HR GFS is a raging blizzard for central VA. 37 inches of snow/sleet thru 228 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, ldub23 said: 222 HR GFS is a raging blizzard for central VA. 37 inches of snow/sleet thru 228 yeah...not gonna happen but pretty to look at on the clown maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: yeah...not gonna happen but pretty to look at on the clown maps. Except for now the EURO and GFS agree which makes it seem more lkely to happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, ldub23 said: Except for now the EURO and GFS agree which makes it seem more lkely to happen There appears to be another threat next weekend. Something to track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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