wasnow215 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 hours ago, Ephesians2 said: I am promising myself that I am not going to get as invested into this potential as I did in this weekend's storm and it's still far out, but ... We have a more southwest-based block on the mean, as well as a positive PNA instead of a negative/neutral PNA. We were always relying on overrunning this weekend, which the early phase out west messed up, but this is more of a classic coastal storm look. And maybe less likely to trend NW if we get anything because of the strong blocking. Face it we're all gonna get invested lol!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Face it we're all gonna get invested lol!! I need to stick to my rule of not being invested until about 48 hours out. As soon as I got invested with this one, it went downhill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORFDawg2013 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I need to stick to my rule of not being invested until about 48 hours out. As soon as I got invested with this one, it went downhill. 6z GFS had it WAY suppressed so that's good news at this stage lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Yeah, still a little surprised at the model differences, NWS and TV mets, certainly using a blend because if they went all Euro, totals would be lower and they would be sounding the alarms louder. Will we see capitulation from EURO or all the others toward EURO, is lock in today's runs or tomorrow's? Also, GFS has the hurricane hunter data in it, as well as EURO, but heard some red taggers saying they should have spent more time on getting data on the high pressure in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, JB Fins said: Yeah, still a little surprised at the model differences, NWS and TV mets, certainly using a blend because if they went all Euro, totals would be lower and they would be sounding the alarms louder. Will we see capitulation from EURO or all the others toward EURO, is lock in today's runs or tomorrow's? Also, GFS has the hurricane hunter data in it, as well as EURO, but heard some red taggers saying they should have spent more time on getting data on the high pressure in Canada. I thought that too, but @WxUSAF cleared that up a couple of pages back in the main thread. I'll see if I can find the quotes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Here it is... 1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said: It’s been a couple days since reading it, but this afternoon is when the northern energy would be in good sampling range. Fingers crossed that there are some positive changes. 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: The northern shortwave/s aren’t going to suddenly get sampled better at any particular model cycle. It won’t be a big increase in high quality data like the recon of the Baja low. It will just sort of be progressively moving into a more data-dense region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 12z Nam is def colder run vs 6z. HRRR at max run looks ok as well out in Tennessee. So far good trends. 6z Euro tick colder as well. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Looks like the Nicholson YES reaction is having issues, you will just have to imagine. Keep the good ju-ju coming Conway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6z Euro ensembles well over a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 So far excellent trends this morning for more snow and less ice. I hope it continues. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Love to see things calm down a bit. Think we can only go up from here with higher snow totals and less ice, but I Imagine it’s still going to get dicey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Are we trending boys? Are we back? Will it snow? Can I put the generator away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Not out of the woods yet. Sunday during the day looks colder but Sunday night could be a period of freezing rain or drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 GFS was a hold, with double digit snowfall totals for Central Virginia with much less freezing rain. It hasn't exactly been performing the best, but at least didn't trend in the wrong direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 GFS looked great but it doesn't have much support. It's the only model as of now that doesn't have the primary low getting into WV/OH....hence it stays colder longer before the flip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Def keep the generator out lol. Won’t take much to mess things up around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Looks like 12z holding, even better accumulations on GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 It would be ideal -double digit snow and then sleet to end. Perfect -give us that -call it a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 14 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: GFS looked great but it doesn't have much support. It's the only model as of now that doesn't have the primary low getting into WV/OH....hence it stays colder longer before the flip. European model was Southeast -European ensembles were…obviously the Ukie... even the CMC was more southeast even though it brings still mostly mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I declare the Euro shall fall and bow dowb to tbe GFS. All hail the GFS On a serious note GFS has really been consistent the last 24 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick_LeBoof Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Trends are looking much better for us in RVA. Seems like the bleeding has stopped for now. I'm excited to see how the NAM models the mid-level thermals. This seems to now be the primary focus for our totals now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 We switch to rain here in the NNK unfortunately which hopefully doesn’t wash everything away. At least on some guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 UK is a good hit before the changeover. Further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Looking at 12Z models i dont think Storm watch is needed for the peninsula. GFS gives us a chance for a storm around 210hr and agrees with last nights EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 222 HR GFS is a raging blizzard for central VA. 37 inches of snow/sleet thru 228 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, ldub23 said: 222 HR GFS is a raging blizzard for central VA. 37 inches of snow/sleet thru 228 yeah...not gonna happen but pretty to look at on the clown maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: yeah...not gonna happen but pretty to look at on the clown maps. Except for now the EURO and GFS agree which makes it seem more lkely to happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, ldub23 said: Except for now the EURO and GFS agree which makes it seem more lkely to happen There appears to be another threat next weekend. Something to track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deep Creek Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 While the GFS has been consistent, I recall a storm we got last Jan or Feb (pretty sure it was Feb but can’t get locate the screen shots) where for like 12 or 14 straight runs it showed the heaviest band over us and then come game time…poof it went well north and we got 1-3” in Richmond metro. Anything is possible and other models being close is good and all, but in these types of setups it’s best to rely on our weather history and err on the side of mixing issues. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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