Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[Conway7305]

Ukie Ensembles.   Not bad

[wasnow215]

2 hours ago, Ephesians2 said:

I am promising myself that I am not going to get as invested into this potential as I did in this weekend's storm and it's still far out, but ...

We have a more southwest-based block on the mean, as well as a positive PNA instead of a negative/neutral PNA. We were always relying on overrunning this weekend, which the early phase out west messed up, but this is more of a classic coastal storm look. And maybe less likely to trend NW if we get anything because of the strong blocking.

 

Face it we're all gonna get invested lol!!

[RVASnowLover]

3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Face it we're all gonna get invested lol!!

I need to stick to my rule of not being invested until about 48 hours out. As soon as I got invested with this one, it went downhill. 

[chris624wx]

I need to stick to my rule of not being invested until about 48 hours out. As soon as I got invested with this one, it went downhill. 

6z GFS had it WAY suppressed so that's good news at this stage lol


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[JB Fins]

Yeah, still a little surprised at the model differences, NWS and TV mets, certainly using a blend because if they went all Euro, totals would be lower and they would be sounding the alarms louder.  Will we see capitulation from EURO or all the others toward EURO, is lock in today's runs or tomorrow's?  Also, GFS has the hurricane hunter data in it, as well as EURO, but heard some red taggers saying they should have spent more time on getting data on the high pressure in Canada.

 

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, JB Fins said:

Yeah, still a little surprised at the model differences, NWS and TV mets, certainly using a blend because if they went all Euro, totals would be lower and they would be sounding the alarms louder.  Will we see capitulation from EURO or all the others toward EURO, is lock in today's runs or tomorrow's?  Also, GFS has the hurricane hunter data in it, as well as EURO, but heard some red taggers saying they should have spent more time on getting data on the high pressure in Canada.

 

I thought that too, but @WxUSAF cleared that up a couple of pages back in the main thread.  I'll see if I can find the quotes.

[nw baltimore wx]

Here it is...

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

It’s been a couple days since reading it, but this afternoon is when the northern energy would be in good sampling range. Fingers crossed that there are some positive changes.

 

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

The northern shortwave/s aren’t going to suddenly get sampled better at any particular model cycle. It won’t be a big increase in high quality data like the recon of the Baja low. It will just sort of be progressively moving into a more data-dense region. 

 

[Conway7305]

12z Nam is def colder run vs 6z.    HRRR at max run  looks ok as well out in Tennessee.  So far good trends.  6z Euro tick colder as well.  

[JB Fins]

Looks like the Nicholson YES reaction is having issues, you will just have to imagine.  Keep the good ju-ju coming Conway.

[wasnow215]

6z Euro ensembles well over a foot of snow. 

[benjammin]

So far excellent trends this morning for more snow and less ice. I hope it continues. 

[Rvarookie]

Love to see things calm down a bit. Think we can only go up from here with higher snow totals and less ice, but I Imagine it’s still going to get dicey 

[overcautionisbad]

Are we trending boys? Are we back? Will it snow? Can I put the generator away?

[mikeeng92]

Not out of the woods yet. Sunday during the day looks colder but Sunday night could be a period of freezing rain or drizzle. 

[Ephesians2]

GFS was a hold, with double digit snowfall totals for Central Virginia with much less freezing rain. It hasn't exactly been performing the best, but at least didn't trend in the wrong direction

[RVASnowLover]

GFS looked great but it doesn't have much support. It's the only model as of now that doesn't have the primary low getting into WV/OH....hence it stays colder longer before the flip. 

[Rvarookie]

Def keep the generator out lol. Won’t take much to mess things up around here 

[Conway7305]

Looks like 12z holding,  even better accumulations on GFS

 

 

[wasnow215]

It would be ideal -double digit snow and then sleet to end. Perfect -give us that -call it a day

[wasnow215]

14 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

GFS looked great but it doesn't have much support. It's the only model as of now that doesn't have the primary low getting into WV/OH....hence it stays colder longer before the flip. 

European model was Southeast -European ensembles were…obviously the Ukie... even the CMC was more southeast even though it brings still mostly mixing. 

[overcautionisbad]

I declare the Euro shall fall and bow dowb to tbe GFS. All hail the GFS

 

On a serious note GFS has really been consistent the last 24 hours

[Dick_LeBoof]

Trends are looking much better for us in RVA.  Seems like the bleeding has stopped for now.   I'm excited to see how the NAM models the mid-level thermals.  This seems to now be the primary focus for our totals now. 

[Rhino16]

We switch to rain here in the NNK unfortunately which hopefully doesn’t wash everything away. At least on some guidance.