canderson Posted July 20, 2023 Author Share Posted July 20, 2023 Storms should be strong through the entire region overnight. Wind damage seems very likely, gusts up to 70 possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 GFS joins the gang almost totally skipping the central and Southern LSV tonight. Models can be wrong but terrible trends for those wanting rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: GFS joins the gang almost totally skipping the central and Southern LSV tonight. Models can be wrong but terrible trends for those wanting rain. My NWS forecast says 3/4 to 1in. Tonight. Such a discrepancy. I'm hoping no heavy rain and less then a 1/2in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 GFS joins the gang almost totally skipping the central and Southern LSV tonight. Models can be wrong but terrible trends for those wanting rain. Go back to 12z and look at all the short range models for 22z and how they got there, haha. Drunks throwing darts. The HRRR was by far the closest just with a delayed evolution. That's the good news, cause it seems to have ramped up the strength when the line arrives with each passing run. Also I swear the GFS has worse verification rates for localities in its first 6 hours then it does 24-72 hours when dealing with convection. The FVS3 was supposed to rectify that somewhat except it got very blond and ditzy and tends to go it's "unique" path more than was hoped for. We shall see. It's a crap shoot this summer. Imagine, just imagine if major snowstorms were predicted like summer convection Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 6 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: My NWS forecast says 3/4 to 1in. Tonight. Such a discrepancy. I'm hoping no heavy rain and less then a 1/2in. The Meso's are even less with their non smoothed precip maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 1 minute ago, Jns2183 said: Go back to 12z and look at all the short range models for 22z and how they got there, haha. Drunks throwing darts. The HRRR was by far the closest just with a delayed evolution. That's the good news, cause it seems to have ramped up the strength when the line arrives with each passing run. Also I swear the GFS has worse verification rates for localities in its first 6 hours then it does 24-72 hours when dealing with convection. The FVS3 was supposed to rectify that somewhat except it got very blond and ditzy and tends to go it's "unique" path more than was hoped for. We shall see. It's a crap shoot this summer. Imagine, just imagine if major snowstorms were predicted like summer convection Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk At least snowstorms are more synoptic....but the last two runs of most models have been "not good" for the LSV for those wanting rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 22Z HRRR from 6z till 10z radar Total precipitation at 10ZSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 My forcast for Thursday night hasn't changed since late Tuesday, early Wednesday. 70% and between 0.25" and 0.50" of rain. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 21, 2023 Author Share Posted July 21, 2023 Rain isn’t the big story of this frontal passage imo. I could see big wind without any rain for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 It's getting dark out this way. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 So close, but couldn't quite get there. Maybe tomorrow... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 21, 2023 Author Share Posted July 21, 2023 29 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: It's getting dark out this way. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Well it is 8:30 pm and the sunset is getting earlier and earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Well it is 8:30 pm and the sunset is getting earlier and earlier Alright, smartass.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Wow, that section of line in northern pa is starting to bow out. Almost seems to be constantly refiring on its outflow boundary pushing it's movement almost southeast Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Wow, that section of line in northern pa is starting to bow out. Almost seems to be constantly refiring on its outflow boundary pushing it's movement almost southeast Sent from my SM-G970U using TapatalkYeah. You see that, asshole? @canderson It ain't no fn sunset. Shit's coming. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 21, 2023 Author Share Posted July 21, 2023 1 minute ago, Atomixwx said: Yeah. You see that, asshole? @canderson It ain't no fn sunset. Shit's coming. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Well if the storm is bad it could send a tree through your house onto your skull and that could be sunset for you. Semantics, amiright? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Dont see this everyday with two tvs, that blue wind coloring. There's going to be lots of 60+ guest up there. I'm sure roads and power will be god awful mess with all the trees there and that huge area of wind. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 I hope the elk don't get smashed by downed trees. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 @canderson If you look west quick before dark you can catch a glimpse of some severe weather fun clouds pushing in. Would suck landing at HIA from the west right now. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 21, 2023 Author Share Posted July 21, 2023 7 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: I hope the elk don't get smashed by downed trees. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Lots of weed and meth houses in danger, too Kidding aside hope you guys are ok and don’t have any issues. Storm is legit. Gonna be wild around these parts down here in the wee hours of the morning I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 No no. No. No no. Let him think it's sunset. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 There’s gonna be a lot of people rudely awaked in the middle of the night down this way, me thinks. This line is no joke, looking quite gnarly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Tornado spotted over Stephenson dam in Cameron county Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 This the HRRR sounding at 6z just as storms are entering west shore area.I fully expect to regret this but I give this a 60% maybe 70% of overachieving in storm voracity in immediate Harrisburg areaSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 21, 2023 Author Share Posted July 21, 2023 16 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: There’s gonna be a lot of people rudely awaked in the middle of the night down this way, me thinks. This line is no joke, looking quite gnarly. A 330 am wake up call with siding blowing off a house sucks. Been there, done that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 21, 2023 Author Share Posted July 21, 2023 27 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: @canderson If you look west quick before dark you can catch a glimpse of some severe weather fun clouds pushing in. Would suck landing at HIA from the west right now. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Follow AA 546. If it actually departs. I’m skeptical. We fly that once a month usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 There’s gonna be a lot of people rudely awaked in the middle of the night down this way, me thinks. This line is no joke, looking quite gnarly. I'm not great reading soundings, butt the different severe parameters the HRRR puts out on a pretty map certainly intrigued me. Figured it would be good to look since I don't Mammatus clouds around here all to often, let alone at our distance to the storms. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 If anyone has radarscope or any super resolution velocity radar loop it. You will see exactly what I mean with that bow echo of strong winds and embedded rotation just rocketing to the ese to se while the line MCS itself moves much more easterly. Any rate CTP is about to some strong winds on the nose. Radar readings were almost 60 500-600 ft off ground. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 It's hereSent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 It's a prolific lightning maker so far and it's just gotten here. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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