El Nino 2023-2024

[thunderbolt]

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Since I assume climate models change (are tweaked, adjusted, what have you) in 8 years, a warm bias from 2015 may not still exist now.

Except for this year 

[GaWx]

15 hours ago, snowman19 said:

So it was off by 0.6….

 Although I agree with you that the BoM overall hasn't been strongly warm biased when averaging all recent years unlike several other models such as the Euro, being off 0.6 that year is pretty significant and not something to minimize. I tend to think of errors in forecasts issued in spring of 1/2 degree+ by any model in any one year as significant.

 We have still another very strong -SOI today with -45.

[so_whats_happening]

Only issue I have seen just recently with Bom is the forecast of MJO. Ever since it crossed the 4/5 it has consistently shown a strong MJO wave chugging along through 6/7/8. That has yet to happen in fact as weird as it is the GFS actually hit the nail on the head with the MJO progression thus far. Meaning if Bom was right it would have really set the stage for a powerful El Nino to take hold as it would have likely eroded the trades around the dateline quite substantially as we see it now it still is struggling but not for trying to get past the dateline. We will have a brief 2-3 days here where we see some nice relaxing around the dateline before seemingly having another round of decent trades poking their head in.

Many of the models that predicted a low amplitude MJO wave show it peaking around 1.5-1.9 (maybe briefly into super category but trimonthlies stay in strong category) while Bom is pushing near 2.5 if not close to the strongest warming we have seen. No doubt overall the WWB event got halted around 150E and in fact some forecasts show a westward propagating WWB with trades pushing westward so this would indicate overall VP is still over maritime region with little indication of this heading east. The interesting part about that is we saw the exact same thing happen back in February which led to a weakening of trades and thus a WWB event across the eastern Pac. This could very well happen again which would help again slowly expand the warmer waters westward into 3/3.4, ENSO 4 may be a struggle for awhile. 

If we can manage a nice uptick in 3.4 over the next month or so it gives confidence in a strong event otherwise still moderate may be the way to go for now. As for the PDO talk, while NE Pac has undoubtedly warmed overall the -PDO is not gone. We still have the warm tongue east of Japan and the overall coolness enveloping the the periphery. The biggest shake up to see things move around will be getting rid of that warm tongue, if we can at least start to push toward a neutral mode it stands a chance at topping near strong but otherwise again conflicting signs dont typically work out well.

[Typhoon Tip]

32 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Only issue I have seen just recently with Bom is the forecast of MJO. Ever since it crossed the 4/5 it has consistently shown a strong MJO wave chugging along through 6/7/8. That has yet to happen in fact as weird as it is the GFS actually hit the nail on the head with the MJO progression thus far. Meaning if Bom was right it would have really set the stage for a powerful El Nino to take hold as it would have likely eroded the trades around the dateline quite substantially as we see it now it still is struggling but not for trying to get past the dateline. We will have a brief 2-3 days here where we see some nice relaxing around the dateline before seemingly having another round of decent trades poking their head in.

Many of the models that predicted a low amplitude MJO wave show it peaking around 1.5-1.9 (maybe briefly into super category but trimonthlies stay in strong category) while Bom is pushing near 2.5 if not close to the strongest warming we have seen. No doubt overall the WWB event got halted around 150E and in fact some forecasts show a westward propagating WWB with trades pushing westward so this would indicate overall VP is still over maritime region with little indication of this heading east. The interesting part about that is we saw the exact same thing happen back in February which led to a weakening of trades and thus a WWB event across the eastern Pac. This could very well happen again which would help again slowly expand the warmer waters westward into 3/3.4, ENSO 4 may be a struggle for awhile. 

If we can manage a nice uptick in 3.4 over the next month or so it gives confidence in a strong event otherwise still moderate may be the way to go for now. As for the PDO talk, while NE Pac has undoubtedly warmed overall the -PDO is not gone. We still have the warm tongue east of Japan and the overall coolness enveloping the the periphery. The biggest shake up to see things move around will be getting rid of that warm tongue, if we can at least start to push toward a neutral mode it stands a chance at topping near strong but otherwise again conflicting signs dont typically work out well.

JMA did really well, too

[so_whats_happening]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

JMA did really well, too

it sure did

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

[csnavywx]

The PDO signature erosion is overwhelmingly due to the insane ridging over the NW Conus and far W Canada over the past few weeks. More of that likely on the way, however that may not impact the southern half of the signature much at all. Looks relatively cool in the subtropical belt for a while yet, especially if blocking stays anchored well north (as currently forecast).

[thunderbolt]

Still dropping

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, csnavywx said:

The PDO signature erosion is overwhelmingly due to the insane ridging over the NW Conus and far W Canada over the past few weeks. More of that likely on the way, however that may not impact the southern half of the signature much at all. Looks relatively cool in the subtropical belt for a while yet, especially if blocking stays anchored well north (as currently forecast).

Yeah...I'm not sure how superficial the PDO modulations we have been observing really are ( or not...).  They could easily be explained by transient pattern-related sea-surface wind stressing... Perhaps we are heading into a +PNA summer?  ... still, as June ages onward, the R-wave coherency may limit that suggestion up there and some of the wind patterning may move toward a boreal summer footprint and the SS goes with it.  Not sure -

[bluewave]

The greatest POAMA warm bias in recent years was 17-18 when a +1.6 was forecast and a -0.8 verified. 
 

[csnavywx]

There were plenty of reasons to be bearish on a forecasted Nino in '18. No IOD help, lack of recharge time, lack of WWV, etc, etc. 

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

There were plenty of reasons to be bearish on a forecasted Nino in '18. No IOD help, lack of recharge time, lack of WWV, etc, etc. 

The record IOD didn’t help El Niño development much in 19-20 like it did in 94-95 and 97-98. The very weak Modoki that winter got overpowered by other factors.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/meet-enso’s-neighbor-indian-ocean-dipole

Typically, the strength of the IOD is monitored with the so-called Dipole Mode Index, which is a measure of the surface temperature difference between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean. The monthly Dipole Mode Index time series reveals other extreme positive phase IOD events, like in 1994 and 1997, but 2019 brought the most extreme event over past 40 years, at least according to this particular index. This event reached its peak in October and November before rapidly weakening in December—a rather typical seasonal evolution for an IOD event. According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, which regularly monitors the IOD, the current Dipole Mode Index is near zero (3), indicating that the IOD has returned to neutral conditions. 

 

 

 

[csnavywx]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The record IOD didn’t help El Niño development much in 19-20 like it did in 94-95 and 97-98. The very weak Modoki that winter got overpowered by other factors.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/meet-enso’s-neighbor-indian-ocean-dipole

Typically, the strength of the IOD is monitored with the so-called Dipole Mode Index, which is a measure of the surface temperature difference between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean. The monthly Dipole Mode Index time series reveals other extreme positive phase IOD events, like in 1994 and 1997, but 2019 brought the most extreme event over past 40 years, at least according to this particular index. This event reached its peak in October and November before rapidly weakening in December—a rather typical seasonal evolution for an IOD event. According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, which regularly monitors the IOD, the current Dipole Mode Index is near zero (3), indicating that the IOD has returned to neutral conditions. 

 

 

 

Yeah, and the strong pos IOD collapsing like that in boreal autumn is a coherent signal for Nina development the following year.

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Yeah, and the strong pos IOD collapsing like that in boreal autumn is a coherent signal for Nina development the following year.

And the Australian wildfires also.

 

[csnavywx]

Yep, read that one! Helluva interesting paper.

[snowman19]

[NutleyBlizzard]

Region 3.4 continues to drop down to .32. Region 1.2 after an earlier significant drop has leveled off for the time being. I’m having some serious doubts of a super El Niño let alone a strong one. My gut tells me we peak out at a moderate basin wide event. I’d certainly take my chances with that during the winter for folks in the NE/ Mid Atlantic regions.

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Region 3.4 continues to drop down to .32. Region 1.2 after an earlier significant drop has leveled off for the time being. I’m having some serious doubts of a super El Niño let alone a strong one. My gut tells me we peak out at a moderate basin wide event. I’d certainly take my chances with that during the winter for folks in the NE/ Mid Atlantic regions.

As would I. I don’t want to see a high-end strong or super as 1) that would flood the entire CONUS (and globe) with excess warmth, and 2) it may kick off yet another multi-year nina. 

[snowman19]

Region 3.4 continues to drop down to .32. Region 1.2 after an earlier significant drop has leveled off for the time being. I’m having some serious doubts of a super El Niño let alone a strong one. My gut tells me we peak out at a moderate basin wide event. I’d certainly take my chances with that during the winter for folks in the NE/ Mid Atlantic regions.

I would recommend you give your gut another month

[GaWx]

 Today's SOI is -21. It will rise sharply again tomorrow. The -SOI streak may or may not end tomorrow as it looks to be close. If not, it looks to end Sunday.

 It will fall back at the end of the month and is progged to drop to ~~-22 on 5/31. May is projected to end up ~-14 to -15.

 Looking further, I see no significant AN SLP in Darwin on the models during 6/1-7. It is looking to average NN to possibly a bit BN. Tahiti is less clear as all show BN early while some (operationals) suggest mainly BN probably lingering the whole week while ensembles suggest mainly NN returning.

 So, whereas the consensus suggests no return to another lengthy strong -SOI the first week of June, it is hard to predict about where that period will end up. For now, I'm leaning fairly neutral.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 5/25/2023 at 1:44 AM, raindancewx said:

I've been thinking about listing my analog model online for purchase online. Would any of you be interested? You basically type in your expected winter outcomes on seven global variables. Then all years back to 1931 are scored based on a weighted statistical model I developed off of a multi-factor polynomial regression.

The scoring is then sortable, and I have a listing of what each variable corresponds to over the long-term (rain, snow, temps, etc in winter). Since ENSO is important but not dominant in the model, you can get strong scoring matches for ENSO years that are not in the same third of the scale (i.e. a rogue La Nina or Neutral might match this year) in special circumstances. 

Usually there are one or two odd ducklings in the seven variable set. So I pick a fixer year among the medium-level match years to bring the pack to the point of mimicking actual global conditions. The main purpose of the tool is to systematically score years as similar or dissimilar without needing to run through hundreds of maps manually. Knowing the most dissimilar years can actually be useful too, to see if reversing the exact opposite years produces similar matches to the most similar years.

The objective scoring last year had both 1984 and 2016 as strong matches as an example. Pretty cold and severely wet winters in the West, just like we actually saw. 1995 was in there as among the least similar La Ninas, which is part of why I was pretty bullish on a shitty season for snow for most of you in the Northeast.

I would purchase that. Your methodology is very interesting, and I have learned a lot from it. Its helped me to become less over reliant on ENSO as I have tried incorporating some of the temp and precip matches. That undoubtedly saved me from a much worse forecast had I just stuck with my original way, given that I incorrectly expected an eastern tilted la nina. The precip and temp maps prompted me to use some analog seasons that were pretty unsavory for eastern US winter enthusiasts, such as 2001 and 2011....which was a red flag against going for a big winter. I never, ever would have included those had I not began doing those temp/precip matches. This is the main reason why I went with less snow (around normal) relative to what one would expect given the type of blocky pattern that I had anticipated. I remember getting questions about why I wasn't going for more snow based on the pattern I had depicted. Turns out that was on the right track, but just not accentuated enough.

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would purchase that. Your methodology is very interesting, and I have learned a lot from it. Its helped me to become less over reliant on ENSO as I have tried incorporating some of the temp and precip matches. That undoubtedly saved me from a much worse forecast had I just stuck with my original way, given that I incorrectly expected an eastern tilted la nina. The precip and temp maps prompted me to use some analog seasons that were pretty unsavory for eastern US winter enthusiasts, such as 2001 and 2011....which was a red flag against going for a big winter. I never, ever would have included those modoki la nina seasons had I not began doing those temp/precip matches. This is the main reason why I went with less snow (around normal) relative to what one would expect given the type of blocky pattern that I had anticipated. I remember getting questions about why I wasn't going for more snow based on the pattern I had depicted. Turns out that was one the right track, but just not accentuated enough.

This a great example of why this forum is such a great tool....the sharing of information is such a catalyst for growth. We all bring different methods and insight to the table.

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Weren't we seeing that most of last winter?

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Weren't we seeing that most of last winter?

Yeah, looks like a continuation from last winter. Probably related to localized warm pool and forcing south of Hawaii. The strong -PDO -PNA couplet was classic Maritime Continent Niña forcing. So a bit of a hybrid pattern. 

 

[GaWx]

 I'd like to look at the BoM model's May forecast's bias more closely, since it has been discussed quite a bit recently due to its extremely warm May forecast, to see if it really hasn't had a Eurolike strong warm bias when averaged out like I had been thinking. The BoM has been using "Access" since 2020 and POAMA prior to that.

 

Year: May forecast for ASO BoM/Euro, actual ASO, BoM miss vs Euro miss

2022: -0.4/-0.3   -1.0   +0.6 vs +0.7

2021: -0.5/0.0      -0.7   +0.2 vs +0.7

2020: -0.8/-0.3    -0.9   +0.1 vs +0.6

2019: +0.2/+0.7   +0.2    0.0 vs +0.5

2018: -0.2/+0.6    +0.5   -0.7 vs +0.1

2017: +0.2/+0.8.   -0.4    +0.6 vs +1.2

2016: -0.8/-0.5     -0.6    -0.2 vs +0.1

2015: +1.6/+2.4    +2.2   -0.6 vs +0.2

2014: +0.8/+1.5    +0.2   +0.6 vs +1.3

2013: -0.8/-0.1      -0.3.   -0.5 vs +0.2

-----------------------------------

2012: +0.9/+0.8    +0.4   +0.5 vs +0.4

2011: +1.2/-0.2      -0.8    +2.0 vs +0.6

2010: -0.4/-0.9     -1.6     +1.2 vs +0.7

2009: +1.4/+0.8    +0.7    +0.7 vs +0.1

2008: +0.3/-0.2    -0.2     +0.5 vs 0.0

2007: -1.0/-0.8      -1.1      +0.1 vs +0.3

-----------------------------------

2006: -1.0/+0.4    +0.3     -1.3 vs +0.1

2005: +1.0/+0.4    -0.1     +1.1 vs +0.5

2004: +0.7/+0.5   +0.6    +0.1 vs -0.1

2003: -0.9/-0.4    +0.2    -1.1  vs -0.6

2002: +1.0/+0.7    +0.9    +0.1 vs -0.2

-------------------------------------

Analysis:

1) 2013-22:

 - BoM had no net bias (average miss of 0.0) with 3 significantly too warm and 3 significantly too cold

- Euro had a strong warm bias (average miss of +0.6) with 6 of 10 significantly too warm

- BoM cooler than Euro 10 of 10 and significantly colder 8 of 10 years

2) 2007-12:

- BoM had a strong warm bias (average miss of +0.8) with 5 of 6 significantly too warm

- Euro had a moderate warm bias (average miss of +0.35) with 2 of 6 significantly too warm

- BoM warmer than Euro 5 of 6

 

3) 2002-06: based on JAS, not ASO

- BoM had a moderate cold bias (average miss of -0.4) with 2 of 5 significantly too cold and 1 of 5 significantly too warm

- Euro had no net bias (avg miss ~0) with 1 of 5 significantly too cold and 1 of 5 significantly too warm

------------------------------

 Conclusions:

1. Based on the last 10 years, which is the most relevant period, the BoM has had no net bias vs the Euro's strong warm bias, which is what I earlier thought. The Euro hasn't been too cold since way back in 2004!

2. However, the BoM lack of a net bias doesn't mean it hasn't had too warm or too cold years.

3. May of 2023 is highly unusual in that the May BoM for ASO is way up at +2.5. This is a whopping 0.9 warmer than any other back to 2002! The second warmest was the +1.6 of 2015. That turned out to be 0.6 too cold.

 May of 2023's BoM's +2.5 for ASO is highly unusual also because it isn't just warmer than the Euro, it is MUCH warmer than the Euro's +1.8! The BoM hadn't been warmer than the Euro since way back in 2012 and this time it is 0.7 warmer!

 There's the chance that BoM had a major modification since 2021 that warmed it.

4. Keeping in mind points #2 and #3 above, considering that the May BoM predicted June to be +1.25 and seeing that it likely will start June no warmer than +0.5, and considering history, the odds are very high that BoM will verify too warm and possibly significantly too warm in June. This all tells me that BoM's +2.5 for ASO will likely verify significantly too warm. Being that the May Euro hasn't been too cold since 2004, I'm predicting 2023 won't be either. Thus, I'm predicting that ASO will end up no warmer than +1.8 and quite possibly cooler due to strong Euro warm bias.

[snowman19]

Weren't we seeing that most of last winter?

This is highly anomalous for June

[snowman19]

Yeah, many of the dynamical models are showing a warm bias relative to how strong the trades have been in the Central Pacific. There has never been a super +2.0 or greater event without the WWBs pushing east of the dateline during spring. The strongest El Niño since 1980 with higher spring trades was 09-10 which made it to +1.6 after a trade wind relaxation in June. If the WWBs can’t pick up in June, then the historic ceiling has been a weak to moderate event that may or may not couple due to RONI. We couldn’t couple in 18-19 and 19-20. The result was a Niña style background pattern. So the tropical wind pattern in June could determine where this event ends up.

 



 

At this point, it’s a given that there’s going to be a significant El Niño. What you are showing tells me that the chances of this becoming a Modoki or even a basin-wide event are getting slimmer and slimmer. I’m wondering if Region 4 even reaches El Niño status now, it may not. This is just lending more support that this stays an exclusively east-based/Eastern Pacific El Nino event

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

At this point, it’s a given that there’s going to be a significant El Niño. What you are showing tells me that the chances of this becoming a Modoki or even a basin-wide event are getting slimmer and slimmer. I’m wondering if Region 4 even reaches El Niño status now, it may not. This is just lending more support that this stays an exclusively east-based/Eastern Pacific El Nino event

The only thing the spring Central Pacific Wind index suggests is that a super El Niño has never followed such strong trades near the Dateline . A significant +1.5 could still be possible if the WWBs come on strong enough in June. Be we may only be able reach +0.5 +1.4 and run the risk of another non coupling event if the trades stay up. We have essentially been in 7 year La Niña since 16-17.