El Nino 2023-2024

[so_whats_happening]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am trying not to envision anything like last winter. My point is that every winter since the 15-16 super El Niño reset has had some element of the WPAC warm pool La Niña flavor. So no mater what the ENSO does, we have had a record breaking 8 warmer than normal winters in a row. While I have gotten used to that, it isn’t easy going nearly snowless like last winter. So we need just enough -AO -NAO blocking on the Atlantic side and enough +PNA or -EPO blocking on the Pacific side to have one or a few KU events. Just way too many elements in the mix these days to say with confidence what version of winter is going to show up ahead of time.

There have been no winters with a moderate amount of snow at ISP on Long Island since the late 90s. Every winter since then has been all or nothing with the snowfall. Either at least one record breaking KU event and above normal snowfall or next to nothing and well below normal snowfall. The median snowfall winter which was the mainstay from the 60s to 90s has been nowhere to be found. So how you issue a snowfall forecast in the fall and know with confidence which type of season is going to show has been very tough to do. In the old days, you could go with a median snowfall forecast winter and have a reasonable  chance of being correct.

Yea coming from an area that is highly variable in general this is the snow graph from Millersville just SW of me from 1926 to what looks like 2021 (unfortunately 2022 and 2023 not on their but 15.0" and 0.9" respectively).

Average is about 27.4" according to the month to month break down, feel this has gone up a bit from about 24-25" but would have to double check. We are not immune to really bad winters around here but the frequency of not having snow or having alot of snow has definitely changed a bit seems to be a one or the other situation around here.

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Very good point. It make sense that it has been feast or famine to the south of SNE, where averages are less. In this area, all we have had are median snowfalls lol

Seasonal snowfall forecasting for a place like Islip in Suffolk County NY used to be much easier before the 93-94 winter. It has been truly feast or famine since then. Guessing the seasonal snowfall totals before then was much easier with so many mid range winters. Way too much volatility these days to guess whether it will be well above or below before the season starts. Record highs and lows in terms of storms and seasons have become the new norm. 
 

93-94 to 22-23

29….seasons with over 33” or under 15”

1…….season with between 15” to 33”

 

63-64 to 92-93

12….seasons over 33” or under 15” 

18…..seasons between 15” to 33”

 

[snowman19]

OHC per this graph dropping back some more to

Saw that, still quite a bit of time before the normal climatological peak for the OHC (November). Going to be a wait and see for the next 2 months….I’m still confident it gets to +2 or better. October is probably the month we see the big uptick with a substantial DWKW/WWBs

[snowman19]

@40/70 Benchmark @griteater Here are the stratospheric experts on Hunga Tonga, huge amounts of water vapor currently in the northern hemisphere’s polar cap: https://x.com/ryans_wx/status/1702431321690456472?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw 

https://x.com/drahbutler/status/1702433306846073309?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

 https://x.com/ryans_wx/status/1702434768946675734?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark @griteater Here are the stratospheric experts on Hunga Tonga, huge amounts of water vapor currently in the northern hemisphere’s polar cap: https://x.com/ryans_wx/status/1702431321690456472?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw 

https://x.com/drahbutler/status/1702433306846073309?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

 https://x.com/ryans_wx/status/1702434768946675734?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

What are the implications of "huge amounts of water vapor" in NH polar cap as regards the most likely effects on E US winters over the next 5 years or so? Do you have any idea based on what experts are saying? If so, please answer this as objectively as possible. Based on you making a post about this, I'm assuming you think there are potentially significant implications. TIA

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

What are the implications of "huge amounts of water vapor" in NH polar cap as regards the most likely effects on E US winters over the next 5 years or so? Do you have any idea based on what experts are saying? If so, please answer this as objectively as possible. Based on you making a post about this, I'm assuming you think there are potentially significant implications. TIA

Because we really have no analogs for an event like this, all that can be done is an educated guess. The hypothesis is that this will cool the Arctic stratosphere leading to +NAM, cold stratosphere and strong SPV. This is what happened in the southern hemisphere where the effects were felt first, before it propagated into the northern hemisphere (now). The only way to test this theory and also see if it has the same effect as it did in the SH, is wait to see what happens this coming winter

[raindancewx]

The Navy guy already linked it a month or so ago, but there is a pretty good paper out about volcanic effects from Tonga. Before this paper, I've mentioned that volcanoes tend to screw up the placement of the ITCZ which has lots of implications for weather outside the tropics.

https://essopenarchive.org/users/304243/articles/657090-long-term-surface-impact-of-hunga-tonga-hunga-ha-apai-like-stratospheric-water-vapor-injection

I've been saying for ages now that March is favored for very powerful storms in the West with both high solar and volcanic activity. You can see the little blue area for precipitation in the paper for my area.

Now look at JJA - it's not a horrible match for the Summer in North America. It was very hot over the Mexican plateau - El Ninos are correlated to warmth in Mexico but it tends to be strongest as a signal on the West Coast there, not inland and high up. The East had a fairly cool Summer.

You can see the tendency is to flood Canada with warm air for winter, while Kamchatka / Japan remain cool in winter. That's maybe a pseudo +PNA v. displaced +WPO type look.

Long-term impact surface temperature and precipitation anomalies forced by the stratospheric water vapor cloud from Hunga Tonga - Hunga Ha'apai.

[Typhoon Tip]

On 9/13/2023 at 12:03 PM, griteater said:

That's how things 'should' work with the MJO during stronger El Ninos...but as bluewave has previously referenced, the MJO was more active than expected during the 2015-2016 El Nino with warmer SSTs in the W Pacific.

Here are Dec 2015 and Feb 2016:

 

 

Paper: Distinctive MJO Activity during the Boreal Winter of the 2015/16 Super El Niño in Comparison with Other Super El Niño Events | SpringerLink

Many previous studies have demonstrated that the boreal winters of super El Niño events are usually accompanied by severely suppressed Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) activity over the western Pacific due to strong descending motion associated with a weakened Walker Circulation. However, the boreal winter of the 2015/16 super El Niño event is concurrent with enhanced MJO activity over the western Pacific despite its sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) magnitude over the Niño 3.4 region being comparable to the SSTA magnitudes of the two former super El Niño events (i.e., 1982/83 and 1997/98). This study suggests that the MJO enhanced over western Pacific during the 2015/16 super El Niño event is mainly related to its distinctive SSTA structure and associated background thermodynamic conditions. In comparison with the previous super El Niño events, the warming SSTA center of the 2015/16 super El Niño is located further westward, and a strong cold SSTA is not detected in the western Pacific. Accordingly, the low-level moisture and air temperature (as well as the moist static energy, MSE) tend to increase in the central-western Pacific. In contrast, the low-level moisture and MSE show negative anomalies over the western Pacific during the previous super El Niño events. As the MJO-related horizontal wind anomalies contribute to the further westward warm SST-induced positive moisture and MSE anomalies over the western tropical Pacific in the boreal winter of 2015/16, stronger moisture convergence and MSE advection are generated over the western Pacific and lead to the enhancement of MJO convection.

 

It reminds me … something strange took place with the QBO around then, too. Strong easterly(westerly) phase abruptly broke down, an interruption whence there was a win reversal, before the previous dynamic resumed. I think it or a similar observation in recent times were never before observed. Interesting  

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The Navy guy already linked it a month or so ago, but there is a pretty good paper out about volcanic effects from Tonga. Before this paper, I've mentioned that volcanoes tend to screw up the placement of the ITCZ which has lots of implications for weather outside the tropics.

https://essopenarchive.org/users/304243/articles/657090-long-term-surface-impact-of-hunga-tonga-hunga-ha-apai-like-stratospheric-water-vapor-injection

I've been saying for ages now that March is favored for very powerful storms in the West with both high solar and volcanic activity. You can see the little blue area for precipitation in the paper for my area.

Now look at JJA - it's not a horrible match for the Summer in North America. It was very hot over the Mexican plateau - El Ninos are correlated to warmth in Mexico but it tends to be strongest as a signal on the West Coast there, not inland and high up. The East had a fairly cool Summer.

You can see the tendency is to flood Canada with warm air for winter, while Kamchatka / Japan remain cool in winter. That's maybe a pseudo +PNA v. displaced +WPO type look.

Long-term impact surface temperature and precipitation anomalies forced by the stratospheric water vapor cloud from Hunga Tonga - Hunga Ha'apai.

I saw this paper before. It may increase the chance for a multi-year Nino during 2025-9. A good hint of this is warm NW/cool SE in N America in DJF, rather typical of El Niño. Also, note the cold Scandinavia and Australia in winter. One of the reasons for the cool anomalies appears to be heavier than normal precip related if I'm recalling correctly as the volcano itself apparently favors net increased global warmth.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark @griteater Here are the stratospheric experts on Hunga Tonga, huge amounts of water vapor currently in the northern hemisphere’s polar cap: https://x.com/ryans_wx/status/1702431321690456472?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw 

https://x.com/drahbutler/status/1702433306846073309?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

 https://x.com/ryans_wx/status/1702434768946675734?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

I'm not sure what new info is supposed to be gleaned from this...I don't need experts to tell me that there is excess WV in the NHEM from the volcano...no one has debated that point. I'm not trying to be a jerk, so please don't take it as such.

People can argue whether or not it will have an impact this winter until they are blue in the face, but no one is going to change the other's mind. I don't think it will matter in this case, as evidenced by last March. Doesn't necessarily we have huge blocking all season, but I don't expect an overbearing PV.

I still feel like people are generalizing the impact of volcanic eruptions when it's more nuanced and varied than people think...akin to people's perception of SSW ramifications. So many people assume they all result in cold in snow in their BY and that is simply not the case.

[griteater]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It reminds me … something strange took place with the QBO around then, too. Strong easterly(westerly) phase abruptly broke down, an interruption whence there was a win reversal, before the previous dynamic resumed. I think it or a similar observation in recent times were never before observed. Interesting  

Yep, as seen on this 1st chart below, in late 2015, as the -QBO was descending from 3mb to 10mb, it abruptly stopped its progress and the +QBO lasted close to 2 years at 30mb from roughly May 2015 to April 2017.  Something like that had not occurred in any year back to 1953 as seen on the 2nd chart.  It looks like there was also another near disruption in the 2019 to 2021 timeframe (can see it on the 2nd chart).  Everything seems pretty normal so far this year with the -QBO progression.

 

[bluewave]

The WPAC was much cooler in 1997 so the forcing stayed further west this year.

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure what new info is supposed to be gleaned from this...I don't need experts to tell me that there is excess WV in the NHEM from the volcano...no one has debated that point. I'm not trying to be a jerk, so please don't take it as such.
People can argue whether or not it will have an impact this winter until they are blue in the face, but no one is going to change the other's mind. I don't think it will matter in this case, as evidenced by last March. Doesn't necessarily we have huge blocking all season, but I don't expect an overbearing PV.
I still feel like people are generalizing the impact of volcanic eruptions when it's more nuanced and varied than people think...akin to people's perception of SSW ramifications. So many people assume they all result in cold in snow in their BY and that is simply not the case.

Amy Butler thinks the SSW last winter actually increased and sped up the transport of water vapor into the NH’s stratosphere. I think a few factors will be at play with the stratosphere this coming winter…El Nino, +IOD, high water vapor from Hunga Tonga, solar. Here’s Amy’s tweet: https://x.com/drahbutler/status/1702433306846073309?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Amy Butler thinks the SSW last winter actually increased and sped up the transport of water vapor into the NH’s stratosphere. I think a few factors will be at play with the stratosphere this coming winter…El Nino, +IOD, high water vapor from Hunga Tonga, solar. Here’s Amy’s tweet: https://x.com/drahbutler/status/1702433306846073309?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

All I am saying is that I have yet to see any strong evidence to favor a potent PV...are there arguments in favor? Sure....and valid ones at that. There are also arguments against.

[bluewave]

The much warmer WPAC is holding the MEI back.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, bluewave said:

The much warmer WPAC is holding the MEI back.

 

 

Right....and the RONI. Its been noted for months..this is why this event will not behave as a traditional canonical el nino, regardless of peak ONI.

[snowman19]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The much warmer WPAC is holding the MEI back.
 
 

Per Paul Roundy: “What’s your thoughts on the MEI.v2? It has 09-10 as the best analogue.” Paul Roundy: “Summer throws it off. This event is very different from 09”. Here’s the tweet: https://x.com/paulroundy1/status/1702489522234101828?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

 

https://x.com/dantejmancini/status/1702483912834904069?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Per Paul Roundy: “What’s your thoughts on the MEI.v2? It has 09-10 as the best analogue.” Paul Roundy: “Summer throws it off. This event is very different from 09”. Here’s the tweet: https://x.com/paulroundy1/status/1702489522234101828?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

No one is arguing that it isn't very different at the surface.

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right....and the RONI. Its been noted for months..this is why this event will not behave as a traditional canonical el nino, regardless of peak ONI.

That 2nd lowest on record -2.1 last summer told us everything we needed to know about last winter well ahead of time.

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That 2nd lowest on record -2.1 last summer told us everything we needed to know about last winter well ahead of time.

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

Yea...I knew there would be a deeply negative PDO, but I still ultimately underestimated it.

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Per Paul Roundy: “What’s your thoughts on the MEI.v2? It has 09-10 as the best analogue.” Paul Roundy: “Summer throws it off. This event is very different from 09”. Here’s the tweet: https://x.com/paulroundy1/status/1702489522234101828?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

 

https://x.com/dantejmancini/status/1702483912834904069?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

That’s correct since the forcing took on more of a westerly lean this August than in 2009.

[Terpeast]

Was there a september update of MEI? Want to see how the JA value compares with 0.3 in JJ. 

[so_whats_happening]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Was there a september update of MEI? Want to see how the JA value compares with 0.3 in JJ. 

0.4 for July/ August

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea...I knew there would be a deeply negative PDO, but I still ultimately underestimated it.

It would have been a much better pattern back in the 50s to early 70s when the blocks weren’t as south based on average as recent years have been. The height rises to the east of New England don’t mix well with -PNA patterns like we saw in December. Even with the +PNA in December 2020, the track was just a little too tucked in near SNJ for Long Island to get into the best Jackpot zone near BGM. Plus just enough ridging to allow the record Christmas cutter a week later.  

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It would have been a much better pattern back in the 50s to early 70s when the blocks weren’t as south based on average as recent years have been. The height rises to the east of New England don’t mix well with -PNA patterns like we saw in December. Even with the +PNA in December 2020, the track was just a little too tucked in near SNJ for Long Island to get into the best Jackpot zone near BGM. Plus just enough ridging to allow the record Christmas cutter a week later.  

 

 

 

I still say even back in the 50's you would have run the risk of that PV lobe in December phasing west with an RNA that fierce.

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still say even back in the 50's you would have run the risk of that PV lobe in December phasing west with an RNA that fierce.

We didn’t have the consistently higher 500 heights east of New England back in that era like we do now. Notice how the recent 8 winter average has never occurred. In the past, we would get occasional spikes that would go right down the next season. It could be a mix of the WPAC warm pool MJO 4-6 along with the much warmer Gulf Stream and even the slowing AMOC. 
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We didn’t have the consistently higher 500 heights east of New England back in that era like we do now. Notice how the recent 8 winter average has never occurred. In the past, we would get occasional spikes that would go right down the next season. It could be a mix of the WPAC warm pool MJO 4-6 along with the much warmer Gulf Stream and even the slowing AMOC. 
 

I understand the height changes...I don't need a graph to illustrate that. But a near record cold phase of the Pacific was never good news for eastern winter enthusiasts.

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I understand the height changes...I don't need a graph to illustrate that. But a near record cold phase of the Pacific was never good news for eastern winter enthusiasts.

It used to be better especially further to the south of our area when there was more of a vortex near the East Coast rather than a SE Ridge. So these days we have to worry more about cutters. Back then, it was a more suppressed storm track favoring the mid-Atlantic. But it was a colder pattern for us back then with more opportunities snow in what would be marginal -PNA patterns for us today. 

[Terpeast]

45 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

0.4 for July/ August

Thanks. I was expecting 0.5, so tracking a bit behind

[so_whats_happening]

Just now, bluewave said:

It used to be better especially further to the south of our area when there was more of a PV near the East Coast rather than a SE Ridge. 

Ocean temps probably helping in conjunction with the more frequent 4-6 MJO, top it off with a -PDO period and boy is it going to look rough. Hope we can get tropics to still actively take out the warmth along the east coast through the end of October maybe it gives us a fighting chance at something different.