El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

The only thing that keeps me from getting over the moon excited over CanSIPs is the PDO. 

looking at the sst map, it’s looking even more negative on this run than last month’s run. 

out of all sst indices, the PDO has the strongest correlation to temps, precip, and snowfall in the MA. 

I don’t know if the models are picking this up, or if other tele’s are muting (or overpowering) the PDO impact, but this is something to watch and take into account. 

The PDO was negative in 2009-2010. You have to remember that last season featured a record negative PDO in order to guard against PTSD that will bias your outlook. That said, I get that that season has a huge neg NAO, which is unlikely, so safe to say that DC probably isn't getting 60". Doesn't mean it will suck.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think SNE should feel good about the prospects of -PDO coupled with some moderate blocking.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The PDO was negative in 2009-2010. You have to remember that last season featured a record negative PDO in order to guard against PTSD that will bias your outlook.

You’re not wrong. I’m still investigating the pdo data to see if the correlation is real, or if pna is still sustainable in a neg pdo regime. It was in the 1960s. It may have been in 09-10, too. I see weak negative values for that winter, maybe -0.5 or so. 

But if the marine heat wave off Japan doesn’t cool down a tad, I’d wager that’s going to have an impact.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

You’re not wrong. I’m still investigating the pdo data to see if the correlation is real, or if pna is still sustainable in a neg pdo regime. It was in the 1960s. It may have been in 09-10, too. I see weak negative values for that winter, maybe -0.5 or so. 

But if the marine heat wave off Japan doesn’t cool down a tad, I’d wager that’s going to have an impact.

Its not exceedingly rare for the PDO and PNA to part ways...I actually think that they will this year.

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its not exceeding rare for the PDO and PNA to part ways...I actually think that they will this year.

Which do you find is more impactful for the Mid Atlantic, the PDO or PNA? To my untrained eye it seems the PDO is more valuable to have in your corner.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Which do you find is more impactful for the Mid Atlantic, the PDO or PNA? To my untrained eye it seems the PDO is more valuable to have in your corner.

I feel like it would be the PDO for sustained cold....but nothing beats a stochastic PNA flex for a nice storm.

[Eskimo Joe]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like it would be the PDO for sustained cold....but nothing beats a stochastic PNA flex for a nice storm.

Thanks. I really appreciate your answers to all of my questions.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Thanks. I really appreciate your answers to all of my questions.

Just my opinions....not all fact per se, of course.

[snowman19]

https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1697321453484740990?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[snowman19]

https://x.com/wxpatel/status/1697310715369927029?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1697321453484740990?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

 

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

https://x.com/wxpatel/status/1697310715369927029?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Slow down...at this pace, we won't have anyone to update us on ENSO by noon.

[snowman19]

Slow down...at this pace, we won't have anyone to update us on ENSO by noon.

You mean actually discussing what this thread is about? Wow such a crazy concept!!!!!

[George001]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You mean actually discussing what this thread is about? Wow such a crazy concept!!!!!

Speaking of ENSO, I’m curious what the official ONI will be for JJA. I’m guessing in the +1.2 range? August had a lot of warming, enough to easily get the nino into moderate territory on the latest trimonthly update. 

[snowman19]

Slow down...at this pace, we won't have anyone to update us on ENSO by noon.

We get it, you have decided that the CANSIPS is definitely right and this is going to be a very cold and snowy winter. And maybe Jesus Christ came down and told you that the forcing isn’t going to move and it’s going to be “Modoki forcing” all winter. This is how many cold and snowy winters in a row that you have predicted now? You are going to find any excuse to force this too. First, the ONI wasn’t getting above moderate, if that, then it wasn’t going to get above strong or you were changing your name to snowman19ismydaddy. Then, “If it goes super it means nothing it won’t behave like a strong or super Nino”. Now, the ONI doesn’t matter at all, SSTs mean squat. The RONI and the MEI are the be all and end all now because it supports “doesn’t matter if the ONI goes to +3.0C, I’m still forecasting a cold and snowy winter”. You will latch onto any index you can find to support your forecast. Last year, when I pointed out that the La Niña was extremely well coupled and had a super low MEI, the MEI didn’t matter, ignore it, it’s outdated. Then the extremely +SOI didn’t matter either, ignore it, it’s overplayed. And you latched on to the ONI saying it wasn’t getting above weak/low end moderate and the CANSIPS showing an east-based Niña winter. The PDO doesn’t matter, the PDO and PNA are going to disconnect this year because…reasons! The EPO is going to be deeply negative too because the RONI shows the Nino is going to behave like a weak Nino. The polar fields support non stop deep -NAO/-AO all winter long too. Don’t argue with me…the solar and QBO will make it happen and Hunga Tonga is ancient history, means nothing. Once October comes, I’ll argue that Judah’s Siberian snowcover index very strongly supports this too! This winter isn’t getting decided by ENSO! Your agenda is clear as day

[CAPE]

lol what an unhinged, nonsensical rant.

Is that 5? Shit, one more I think.

[40/70 Benchmark]

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You mean actually discussing what Twitter is about? Wow such a crazy concept!!!!!

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

We get it, you have decided that the CANSIPS is definitely right and this is going to be a very cold and snowy winter. And maybe Jesus Christ came down and told you that the forcing isn’t going to move and it’s going to be “Modoki forcing” all winter. This is how many cold and snowy winters in a row that you have predicted now? You are going to find any excuse to force this too. First, the ONI wasn’t getting above moderate, if that, then it wasn’t going to get above strong or you were changing your name to snowman19ismydaddy. Then, “If it goes super it means nothing it won’t behave like a strong or super Nino”. Now, the ONI doesn’t matter at all, SSTs mean squat. The RONI and the MEI are the be all and end all now because it supports “doesn’t matter if the ONI goes to +3.0C, I’m still forecasting a cold and snowy winter”. You will latch onto any index you can find to support your forecast. Last year, when I pointed out that the La Niña was extremely well coupled and had a super low MEI, the MEI didn’t matter, ignore it, it’s outdated. Then the extremely +SOI didn’t matter either, ignore it, it’s overplayed. And you latched on to the ONI saying it wasn’t getting above weak/low end moderate and the CANSIPS showing an east-based Niña winter. The PDO doesn’t matter, the PDO and PNA are going to disconnect this year because…reasons! The EPO is going to be deeply negative too because the RONI shows the Nino is going to behave like a weak Nino. The polar fields support non stop deep -NAO/-AO all winter long too. Don’t argue with me…the solar and QBO will make it happen and Hunga Tonga is ancient history, means nothing. Once October comes, I’ll argue that Judah’s Siberian snowcover index very strongly supports this too! This winter isn’t getting decided by ENSO! Your agenda is clear as day

0.00.

I never, ever said ignore the MEI...find that quote, please. What I said was I will take my chances on a decent winter with appreciable episodes of blocking.....which worked out. But we had a record -PDO. If you are going to make it a practice of predicting record anomalies while doing seasonal outlooks, then good luck.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Triggered lol And to think, that was like 30% of his remaining daily allotment.

[George001]

20 minutes ago, CAPE said:

lol what an unhinged, nonsensical rant.

Is that 5? Shit, one more I think.

Is it really unhinged? This is straight from Rays blog (posted 2 years ago, so it does not include the disaster that was last winter).

 

The mean forecasting error with respect to the eight seasonal snowfall outlooks are as follows:

2021-2022: 25.4%

2020-2021: 11.7%

2019-2020: 678.3%

2018-2019: 90.4%

2017-2018: 15.6%

2016-2017: 36%

2015-2016: 71.4% 

2014-2015: 13.7%

Eight season running mean error: 117.8%

29/117 (24.8%) of snowfall outlooks have been under forecast.

61/117 (52.1%) of snowfall outlooks have been over forecast.

26/117 (22.2%) of snowfall outlooks have verified within the forecast range.

 

 

Still need a bigger sample size, but this indicates a strong snowy bias in his outlooks. That said, I respect the transparency but frankly that is straight up a horrible track record and backs up what Snowman19 is saying.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

Is it really unhinged? This is straight from Rays blog (posted 2 years ago, so it does not include the disaster that was last winter).

 

 

The mean forecasting error with respect to the eight seasonal snowfall outlooks are as follows:

2021-2022: 25.4%

2020-2021: 11.7%

2019-2020: 678.3%

2018-2019: 90.4%

2017-2018: 15.6%

2016-2017: 36%

2015-2016: 71.4% 

2014-2015: 13.7%

Eight season running mean error: 117.8%

29/117 (24.8%) of snowfall outlooks have been under forecast.

61/117 (52.1%) of snowfall outlooks have been over forecast.

26/117 (22.2%) of snowfall outlooks have verified within the forecast range.

 

 

Still need a bigger sample size, but this indicates a strong snowy bias in his outlooks. That said, I respect the transparency.

It does, but when you have the time, go back and read all of the outlook verification works. If that rationale is not sound, then let me know. Let me ask you this....if I had a conscious snowfall bias, why I spend so much time researching only to be painfully transparent about said bias???

I have an exercise for you...go back to all of snowman19's work over the past decade and lets see if any biases become apparent  Oh wait, no trasnparency.....or work history for that matter. Maybe confiscate his laptop and have a gander at his Twitter search history over the last decade?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Horrible track record with respect to snowfall, which is subject to a great deal of variance....I would argue last winter's effort was pretty solid. 

Index Value	Predicted '22-'23 DM   Value Range	Actual  '22-'23 DM Value	Forecast Error
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)	-1.27 to -1.57	-1.87	Biased .30 positive
Perennial North American Pattern (PNA)	-.35 to -.65	-.68	Biased .03 positive
ENSO	SON -1.0 to -1.2 EMI: .3 to .5 (slightly east-hybrid)	SON -1.0 (Verified)	Verified   +1 Modoki Error
(J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO)	+.30 to +.60	-.43	Biased .73 positive
Arctic Oscillation (AO)	-.15 to -.45	-.38	Verified
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)	+.15 to +.45	+.23	Verified

[40/70 Benchmark]

You say I suck, which may be true, but the issue is that until more forecasters are as diligent and transparent as I am, then we really don't know because there isn't much to compare it to.

Getting a hit 3/10 times seems like it would make for a shitty baseball player, but 'alas- Hitting a baseball and forecasting several months in advance are hard.

[brooklynwx99]

11 minutes ago, George001 said:

Is it really unhinged? This is straight from Rays blog (posted 2 years ago, so it does not include the disaster that was last winter).

 

The mean forecasting error with respect to the eight seasonal snowfall outlooks are as follows:

2021-2022: 25.4%

2020-2021: 11.7%

2019-2020: 678.3%

2018-2019: 90.4%

2017-2018: 15.6%

2016-2017: 36%

2015-2016: 71.4% 

2014-2015: 13.7%

Eight season running mean error: 117.8%

29/117 (24.8%) of snowfall outlooks have been under forecast.

61/117 (52.1%) of snowfall outlooks have been over forecast.

26/117 (22.2%) of snowfall outlooks have verified within the forecast range.

 

 

Still need a bigger sample size, but this indicates a strong snowy bias in his outlooks. That said, I respect the transparency but frankly that is straight up a horrible track record and backs up what Snowman19 is saying.

sorry, but with all due respect, i’m not sure if you can really comment on a pretty well-respected forecaster’s track record and talk about how horrible it is when for the last few years you’d talk about how every shortwave hitting the atlantic would turn into a historic Boston blizzard 

[George001]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It does, but when you have the time, go back and read all of the outlook verification works. If that rationale is not sound, then let me know. Let me ask you this....if I had a conscious snowfall bias, why I spend so much time researching only to be painfully transparent about said bias???

I have an exercise for you...go back to all of snowman19's work over the past decade and let’s see if any biases become apparent  Oh wait, no trasnparency.....or work history for that matter. Maybe confiscate his laptop and have a gander at his Twitter search history over the last decade?

I don’t know… maybe you think it will even out with a bigger sample size and we have just been “unlucky” would be my guess. I don’t think you do it on purpose (like Joe Bastardi does), but I do think that a desire for snow is seeping into your winter forecasts and leading to a cold and snowy bias. As for snowman19…. He has the opposite bias that you do, he likes warmer weather like Torch Tiger. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, George001 said:

I don’t know… maybe you think it will even out with a bigger sample size and we have just been “unlucky” would be my guess. I don’t think you do it on purpose (like Joe Bastardi does), but I do think that a desire for snow is seeping into your winter forecasts and leading to a cold and snowy bias. As for snowman19…. He has the opposite bias that you do, he likes warmer weather like Torch Tiger. 

This is fair and I am working on it. But if I honestly feel the forcing will be west, I am not going to forecast based upon what I think George will say about me 6 months from now. You have to erase everything from your memory except for new information gleaned with respect to forecasting over the last year. Most of that + snow bias data is from 2 years....2018-2019 and 2019-2020. Absolutely horrible work. But had I known about RONI and descending solar/+NAO relationship back then, I would NOT have been operating on the premise of a weak el nino with big blocking.

You need to remember that much of the mid atlantic averages like 10-15" of snowfall, so a bad year or two will take a decade or two of incredible forecasting of an element subject to a great deal of variance like snowfall to even begin to overcome.

[brooklynwx99]

47 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We get it, you have decided that the CANSIPS is definitely right and this is going to be a very cold and snowy winter. And maybe Jesus Christ came down and told you that the forcing isn’t going to move and it’s going to be “Modoki forcing” all winter. This is how many cold and snowy winters in a row that you have predicted now? You are going to find any excuse to force this too. First, the ONI wasn’t getting above moderate, if that, then it wasn’t going to get above strong or you were changing your name to snowman19ismydaddy. Then, “If it goes super it means nothing it won’t behave like a strong or super Nino”. Now, the ONI doesn’t matter at all, SSTs mean squat. The RONI and the MEI are the be all and end all now because it supports “doesn’t matter if the ONI goes to +3.0C, I’m still forecasting a cold and snowy winter”. You will latch onto any index you can find to support your forecast. Last year, when I pointed out that the La Niña was extremely well coupled and had a super low MEI, the MEI didn’t matter, ignore it, it’s outdated. Then the extremely +SOI didn’t matter either, ignore it, it’s overplayed. And you latched on to the ONI saying it wasn’t getting above weak/low end moderate and the CANSIPS showing an east-based Niña winter. The PDO doesn’t matter, the PDO and PNA are going to disconnect this year because…reasons! The EPO is going to be deeply negative too because the RONI shows the Nino is going to behave like a weak Nino. The polar fields support non stop deep -NAO/-AO all winter long too. Don’t argue with me…the solar and QBO will make it happen and Hunga Tonga is ancient history, means nothing. Once October comes, I’ll argue that Judah’s Siberian snowcover index very strongly supports this too! This winter isn’t getting decided by ENSO! Your agenda is clear as day

[40/70 Benchmark]

What I will say is that the only seasonal forecaster that I know of who is transparent enough for me to definitively say that he are better than I am is @raindancewx. But I would like to see a sample of his work during a string of big east coast years and meager west coast years, like last decade. He started posting here like the fall of 2018 from what I can recall, and its been a string of poor east coast years.

We are all human and passionate about the weather, and while that passion is an asset and serves as a protective factor within most realms of life, it can be of a detriment to forecasting proficiency. The first step to overcoming it is like any other malady or even form of addiction.... insight. You aren't going to get better until you are honest with yourself and George raises a sound point that I am well aware of.

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What I will say is that the only seasonal forecaster that I know of who is transparent enough for me to definitively say that he are better than I am is @raindancewx. But I would like to see a sample of his work during a string of big east coast years and meager west coast years, like last decade. He started posting here like the fall of 2018 from what I can recall, and its been a string of poor east coast years.

We are all human and passionate about the weather, and while that passion is an asset and serves as a protective factor within most realms of life, it can be of a detriment to forecasting proficiency. The first step to overcoming it is like any other malady or even form of addiction.... insight. You aren't going to get better until you are honest with yourself and George raises a sound point that I am well aware of.

well, that’s one of the reasons i’m a bit weenie-ish here. i forecast for a living and i need to pull in the reins at work so I let it out more here

[40/70 Benchmark]

The only other one of @snowman19's points worth addressing is with respect to the PDO/PNA parting ways. If you look back through analogs, its really not that uncommon and some the ones that I feel are best begin RNA and then flip. Doesn't mean huge PNA in the mean...not what I meant to imply. It will be illustrated well in my final work.

I feel I have addressed his other points more than adequately here.

One thing you have to remember about me is the only thing that I love as much as snow is being right, so trust me.....I am not going to predict a big winter if I honestly don't think it will happen...well, not consciously, anyway.

[George001]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What I will say is that the only seasonal forecaster that I know of who is transparent enough for me to definitively say that he are better than I am is @raindancewx. But I would like to see a sample of his work during a string of big east coast years and meager west coast years, like last decade. He started posting here like the fall of 2018 from what I can recall, and it’s been a string of poor east coast years.

 I don’t think he does seasonal forecasts anymore, but I’d put Isotherm in there too. He nailed some tough ones that fooled a lot of other people (2019-2020 being mild, went big in 2010-2011 even with the strong nina, etc).