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2023 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion


Chicago Storm
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On 8/12/2023 at 6:47 PM, Cartier God said:

Yesterday’s chase started after leaving a party at my boss’s house around 6:30. Storms began to fire southwest of the warm front around 6:40, looking pretty anemic at first. Still on the fence about chasing, I drove to Staples in Frandor to stop and check mesoanalysis. Soon after I noticed a small cell east of Dewitt that was broadly rotating on radar. I drove north to get a view of the storm at 7:10. Shortly after I caught a glimpse of the distant updraft base.e2f17d05f1d118ca77b5d2db0ee832f4.jpg

As I approached the storm from the southwest, the RFD clear slot became more apparent, and a broadly rotating wall cloud could be seen.db6c0ba83d4688cdf8287e4bb264d6f1.jpg

After heading east to get a better view, I witnessed the old updraft base move off to the north and begin to occlude. Off to the south, a new and more vigorous updraft was wrapping up. I cautiously drove east behind the storm. After the trees parted, I was greeted with a closer view of the mesocyclone looking ENE on Bath Rd.2437ee411c1a6c05aaf2c6a0e52ebee3.jpg

The RFD surge was mesmerizing. A tornado looked imminent. I noticed wispy funnels emerging from the mesocyclone about 3 miles west of perry accompanied by rapid upward motion. I continued east as my view of the ground became obscured by trees. I stayed west of I-69 not wanting to risk getting too close or missing out on the storm structure. A weak tornado was visible at this point, lofting small debris.f31218e9ad7c1de3caaf9d994403f5d1.jpg

The funnel quickly widened and intensified after crossing I-69.
df932c07fccbd4e9e70a8aad4da0f8eb.png

I repositioned and gained sight of the tornado after stopping at the intersection of Bath and Ruess. I watched the now uncondensed funnel cross Ruess Rd, with a brief power power flash and some swirling debris noted. 08657ddc7a6df19182dadff7d7ad1396.png

I continued east and witnessed a few more ragged lowerings before calling it a night and heading home at dusk.


.

Awesome photos. A truly great look at tornadogenesis

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1 hour ago, Lightning said:

Except no MCS developed as modeled.  Pure Michigan!!

Only took until 6AM for some storms to even develop in northern lower :arrowhead:

Still got potential for multiple rounds of storms. Down here I’ll get your table scraps unless a overperformer comes around. The cap is an issue

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11 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Still got potential for multiple rounds of storms. Down here I’ll get your table scraps unless a overperformer comes around. The cap is an issue

Looking too far east for MBY but I am sure it will find a way to get to Detroit (Wayne county).   It just get tiring that something always seems to go wrong when the models are blasting this area.  :mellow:

Been in the UP a total of 12 days this summer and have had far better T-storms up there!!!  Time to be Bo's neighbor!! B)

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2 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Looking too far east for MBY but I am sure it will find a way to get to Detroit (Wayne county).   It just get tiring that something always seems to go wrong when the models are blasting this area.  :mellow:

Been in the UP a total of 12 days this summer and have had far better T-storms up there!!!  Time to be Bo's neighbor!! B)

Something about storms in the UP is magical. Would love to be on Isle Royale when some come through. I’ll be heading up to the UP end of September. Hopefully a strong low comes through and I can see Superior pissed off. Hopefully no snow showers lol. Still have to visit the porcupine mtns 

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9 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Looking too far east for MBY but I am sure it will find a way to get to Detroit (Wayne county).   It just get tiring that something always seems to go wrong when the models are blasting this area.  :mellow:

Been in the UP a total of 12 days this summer and have had far better T-storms up there!!!  Time to be Bo's neighbor!! B)

This continues the trend for here this spring/summer.  Not all the models were showing that line, but its frustrating the ridge wins out the one time you don’t want it to.  There’s plenty of CAPE, but its just hard to get convection going with +12 at 700hpa.  

The upper 70s dewpoints are still on the way though.  Oh boy.  What fun.

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3 hours ago, frostfern said:

This continues the trend for here this spring/summer.  Not all the models were showing that line, but its frustrating the ridge wins out the one time you don’t want it to.  There’s plenty of CAPE, but its just hard to get convection going with +12 at 700hpa.  

The upper 70s dewpoints are still on the way though.  Oh boy.  What fun.

Hey I nailed it => "find a way to get to Detroit (Wayne county)" :lmao:  Storms missed MBY by about 20 miles (or less actually).  Oh well. :mellow:  Hopefully something fun happens the next couple days.  Lots of potential at least. 

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4 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

Something about storms in the UP is magical. Would love to be on Isle Royale when some come through. I’ll be heading up to the UP end of September. Hopefully a strong low comes through and I can see Superior pissed off. Hopefully no snow showers lol. Still have to visit the porcupine mtns 

Couple times I was up there with graupel around Sept 28th.  I don't think that will be the pattern this year but you never know in the UP :lol:

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14 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Hey I nailed it => "find a way to get to Detroit (Wayne county)" :lmao:  Storms missed MBY by about 20 miles (or less actually).  Oh well. :mellow:  Hopefully something fun happens the next couple days.  Lots of potential at least. 

While nothing severe, lightning tracker and radar does indicate this been a pretty stormy morning / early afternoon for parts of the city proper and the NE suburbs.

Selfridge has apparently picked up over 1.5" of rain.

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21 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Hey I nailed it => "find a way to get to Detroit (Wayne county)" :lmao:  Storms missed MBY by about 20 miles (or less actually).  Oh well. :mellow:  Hopefully something fun happens the next couple days.  Lots of potential at least. 

I seen that. Wish I was in the thumb would have loved those boomers especially if they were at night

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29 minutes ago, Powerball said:

While nothing severe, lightning tracker and radar does indicate this been a pretty stormy morning / early afternoon for parts of the city proper and the NE suburbs.

Selfridge has apparently picked up over 1.5" of rain.

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
Issued by National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1233 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

MIC099-125-163-232230-
/O.NEW.KDTX.FA.Y.0018.230823T1633Z-230823T2230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Macomb MI-Oakland MI-Wayne MI-
1233 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...A portion of southeast Michigan, including the following
  counties, Macomb, Oakland and Wayne.

* WHEN...Until 630 PM EDT.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1233 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
    thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
    shortly in the advisory area.
  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...
    Warren, Troy, Southfield, St. Clair Shores, Mount Clemens,
    New Baltimore, Grosse Pointe, Sterling Heights, Royal Oak,
    Birmingham, Clinton, Macomb Township, Detroit Zoo, Rochester
    Hills, Roseville, Eastpointe, Madison Heights, Oak Park,
    Hamtramck and Ferndale.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4245 8319 4259 8326 4274 8280 4273 8276
      4273 8274 4272 8273 4271 8273 4263 8276
      4263 8277 4262 8277 4254 8281 4254 8282
      4252 8284 4248 8284 4239 8288 4234 8296
      4234 8297


$$
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1 hour ago, Powerball said:

While nothing severe, lightning tracker and radar does indicate this been a pretty stormy morning / early afternoon for parts of the city proper and the NE suburbs.

Selfridge has apparently picked up over 1.5" of rain.

Yeah, the Tigers/Cubs are in a rain delay. It looks like the NE suburbs are getting a second round of lighter rain, but may miss downtown.

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2 hours ago, Powerball said:

While nothing severe, lightning tracker and radar does indicate this been a pretty stormy morning / early afternoon for parts of the city proper and the NE suburbs.

Selfridge has apparently picked up over 1.5" of rain.

Wow 2.75 at Selfridge:

image.png.d401b24983bfe6613608fe3ba6f4c5cb.png

 

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Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

Maybe I'm confused about criterias over there. The forecast for Allen County, Indiana calls for heat index values up to 106, even though there are no alerts in effect.

 

It’s a bit late now. I thought some of the models were bullish but apparently not. Up to 90/72/100 now where I am. Started the day at 64/56/64

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They were originally expecting more storms over SE MI than what occurred.  Most of SC/SE MI would have remained much cooler if the storms/clouds over Lake Erie/Huron were further west like was forecasted/modeled (by most models).  The models that were furthest east were correct and these areas have remained mostly sunny and the push of warmth made if further east. 

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
824 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Erie County in north central Ohio...
  West central Cuyahoga County in northeastern Ohio...
  Northern Lorain County in north central Ohio...

* Until 930 PM EDT.

* At 824 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from 13 miles northwest of Lorain to 8 miles northeast of
  Avon Lake, moving southwest at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
           damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
           damage to trees and power lines.
 

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1055 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

OHC043-077-093-123-143-240315-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-230824T0315Z/
Huron OH-Ottawa OH-Erie OH-Sandusky OH-Lorain OH-
1055 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN HURON...OTTAWA...ERIE...NORTHEASTERN SANDUSKY AND
SOUTHWESTERN LORAIN COUNTIES...

At 1054 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Sandusky to near Wakeman, moving southwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Emergency management. There have been several reports of
         tree damage in Sandusky.

IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Expect considerable
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes,
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Sandusky, Norwalk, Western Vermilion, Vermilion, Port Clinton,
Kelleys Island, Put-In-Bay, Bellevue, Wellington, Northern Milan,
Milan, Wakeman, Castalia, Oberlin, Catawba Island, Pittsfield,
Monroeville, Marblehead, Berlin Heights and Bay View.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4159 8262 4155 8265 4153 8265 4142 8249
      4147 8238 4118 8211 4111 8220 4110 8240
      4133 8297 4148 8298 4155 8288 4165 8283
TIME...MOT...LOC 0254Z 032DEG 16KT 4144 8270 4119 8247

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

Sullivan
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