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2023 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion


Chicago Storm
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20 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Looking back this particular run by the HRRR was pretty darn close (of course not perfect) to what happened :gun:

I know right. It was too outlandish for me but somehow hit the bullseye in the dark. I spent some time earlier going over the radar history all I gotta say is dayyyum

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1 hour ago, Lightning said:

One concern I have is the cloud cover is not burning off very fast at all. Most of southern MI is still cloudy and it is 3PM. I was hoping the sun would be out a bit more by now across southern MI.

driving into s Michigan from Fort Wayne, very sunny and car says 93... feels disgusting out

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55 minutes ago, nvck said:

driving into s Michigan from Fort Wayne, very sunny and car says 93... feels disgusting out

Love this weather!!  Feels great to me.  Yep as expected the sun is pushing into southern MI mostly SW MI and extreme SE MI.  As SPC points out:

Visible satellite imagery has shown significant erosion
   of the stratus across southwest Lower MI as the differential heating
   zone becomes an effective warm front amid strong southwesterly
   surface winds. Dewpoints are now in the upper 70s with temperatures
   in the upper 80s/low 90s across southwest Lower MI. Temperatures are
   still in the upper 70s/low 80s farther north and east, with lower
   dewpoints there as well. Even with the more moist and warmer
   conditions, some convective inhibition currently still remains
   across southwest Lower MI, evidenced by the billow clouds on visible
   imagery. Additional heating, coupled with low-level moisture
   convergence over the region, may be able to overcome this convective
   inhibition, promoting warm-sector thunderstorm development. There is
   some uncertainty regarding this scenario, but any warm-sector storms
   that do form would likely be supercellular and capable of all severe
   hazards, including tornadoes. 
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View over the lake. Love standing in the rain during such warm temps.  “Marble size” hail being reported over skywarn in Racine. Nothing much here I’m just south of it. Constant thunder but unfortunately it’s mostly hidden cloud to cloud.

Edit: Racine Airport reported 54mph wind gust. 

IMG_4612.jpeg

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1 hour ago, TheNiño said:

View over the lake. Love standing in the rain during such warm temps.  “Marble size” hail being reported over skywarn in Racine. Nothing much here I’m just south of it. Constant thunder but unfortunately it’s mostly hidden cloud to cloud.

Edit: Racine Airport reported 54mph wind gust. 

IMG_4612.jpeg

That storm out east had legit supercell structure on radar for a while, even a distinct velocity couplet as it moved out over the lake just north of Kenosha. SMW for waterspouts was put out for it, even though no tornado warning over land.

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