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8th Annual Mid-Atlantic Snowfall Contest


RodneyS
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4 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I'm still liking where I sit, my proprietary PFWx model says we get our one and only WSW event in the 2nd half of March. I'll see you then. B)

Okay.  FYI, an astonishing historical DC snow fact is this:

In the winter of 1913-14, no measurable snow fell until February 13, 1914.  Then a Valentine's Eve/Valentine's Day storm dropped 4.5 inches.  That seemed to open the snow gates, as after that snow fell on an additional nine days through March 22, 1914, resulting in 28.6 inches for the season, of which a record 19.3 inches fell in March. 

Now fast forward to the winter of 1959-60.  Believe it or not, once again no measurable snow fell in DC until February 13th, and once again a Valentine's Eve/Valentine's Day storm dropped significant snow -- this time, 6.2 inches.  And once again, that seemed to open the snow gates, as after that snow fell on an additional seven days through March 16, 1960, resulting in 24.3 inches for the season, of which 17.1 inches fell in March -- the second most ever -- second only to March 1914.  

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1 hour ago, RodneyS said:

Okay.  FYI, an astonishing historical DC snow fact is this:

In the winter of 1913-14, no measurable snow fell until February 13, 1914.  Then a Valentine's Eve/Valentine's Day storm dropped 4.5 inches.  That seemed to open the snow gates, as after that snow fell on an additional nine days through March 22, 1914, resulting in 28.6 inches for the season, of which a record 19.3 inches fell in March. 

Now fast forward to the winter of 1959-60.  Believe it or not, once again no measurable snow fell in DC until February 13th, and once again a Valentine's Eve/Valentine's Day storm dropped significant snow -- this time, 6.2 inches.  And once again, that seemed to open the snow gates, as after that snow fell on an additional seven days through March 16, 1960, resulting in 24.3 inches for the season, of which 17.1 inches fell in March -- the second most ever -- second only to March 1914.  

I had mentioned both those winters in the snow futility thread when researching DCA shutouts. Those were both interesting years. Thanks for the info!

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12 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I had mentioned both those winters in the snow futility thread when researching DCA shutouts. Those were both interesting years. Thanks for the info!

It's uncanny how similar those two winters were.  Of course, both are considered by NOAA to be neutral years, rather than La Nina years; see https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/past_events.html

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At the beginning of this winter, January 27th marked the latest day of any Dulles Airport winter season (dating to 1962-63) for the first measurable snow -- on that day in 2009, IAD ended its 2008-09 snow drought by recording 2.0 inches. We shall see when (or should I say if ?;)) the IAD snow drought ends this winter.
 
FYI, in both Baltimore and Washington, the latest first measurable snow of any winter season occurred during 1972-73, when BWI recorded its only measurable snow on February 21, 1973 (1.2 inches) and DCA did the same on February 23, 1973 (0.1 inch). In Richmond, the long-ago winter of 1918-19 resulted in a season-long snow drought -- only a trace fell (in December 1918 and January 1919). 
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On 1/27/2023 at 8:34 AM, RodneyS said:
At the beginning of this winter, January 27th marked the latest day of any Dulles Airport winter season (dating to 1962-63) for the first measurable snow -- on that day in 2009, IAD ended its 2008-09 snow drought by recording 2.0 inches. We shall see when (or should I say if ?;)) the IAD snow drought ends this winter.
 
FYI, in both Baltimore and Washington, the latest first measurable snow of any winter season occurred during 1972-73, when BWI recorded its only measurable snow on February 21, 1973 (1.2 inches) and DCA did the same on February 23, 1973 (0.1 inch). In Richmond, the long-ago winter of 1918-19 resulted in a season-long snow drought -- only a trace fell (in December 1918 and January 1919). 

The IAD snow drought made it until Tom Brady's second retirement, and so February 1st is the new record for the latest day of any Dulles Airport winter season for the first measurable snow.  I presume DCA also received measurable snow this morning-- BWI I'm not sure about.  In any event, when the totals are announced, I will post an updated table -- not that it will change the relative standings, which show Little Village Wx with a comfortable lead.

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On 2/10/2023 at 6:19 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

LittleVillageWx finished 2nd place last year… we might have another Olaf or StormPC on our hands. Gotta watch what he/she does every year now before making a forecast. :lol:

According to the profile, LittleVillageWx is a man who lives in Frederick, MD.  He is threatening to be a wire-to-wire winner this season.:o

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  • 2 weeks later...

Wow, what a memorable winter storm!

I'm talking, of course, about what happened today in the Winter Wonderland of Southern California. ;) Here, it was business as usual; however, there may be some hope for March snow in the Mid-Atlantic, and if that doesn't work out, I'm working on an April 1st model that suggests that Easter here may be rocklng.  :lol:

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  • 3 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...
Did you hear that the world's most accurate weather model is forecasting a foot of snow on Easter at all Mid-Atlantic airports?  . . . No, I did not hear that either -- April Fools'.:lol:
 
Like many others, I was not anticipating a banner 2022-23 snow season, but just 0.4 inches at Dulles?  In 2011-12, we had more snow than that in October, and the previous low seasonal record holder at IAD was 1972-73, at 2.2 inches.  And BWI even managed to undercut IAD this season, with 0.2 inches, breaking the all-time low Baltimore record of 0.7 inches set in 1949-50. RIC could not go lower than zero measurable snow, but did manage to tie 1918-19 with only a trace. That left DCA as the only one of our four airports where the low snow record was not at least tied, as the 0.4 inches recorded there was enough to place third lowest in DC history, leaving 1972-73 and 1997-98 as the co-record holders at 0.1 inches.
 
Little Village Wx, who narrowly missed winning this contest last snow season, left no doubt about it this season.  He shrewdly lowered his forecast from a year ago, although -- like everyone else -- he still went too high at every airport.  Nonetheless, the writing was on the wall early this season that the lowest forecast overall total would win, as the much ballyhooed December 2022 polar vortex arrived too late to mix more than a tad with a low pressure system that departed the Mid-Atlantic on December 23rd. By late December, temperatures had warmed up, and snow lovers could only shake their heads the rest of the meteorological winter, as the first two months of 2023 brought record warmth.  The early morning of February 1st was the only thing that kept the Snow Gods from pitching a shutout in the Mid-Atlantic.  Our long-term administrator PrinceFrederickWx held out hope that a seasonably cool March and a decent storm track could give him the snow he needed to take the lead, but that did not happen, and so he had to settle for runner-up. 
 
Congratulations to Little Village Wx, and below is his championship trophy. 
 

image.jpeg.208e4b3ec848a81dbfc4b0b9d6bbdbf9.jpeg

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Am I the only one who's, perhaps irrationally, mildly annoyed that the February 1st event ruined our chance at a total 0" shutout year at the local airports?

 

 

Also... That feeling when your low-end troll forecast ends up too high at the three local airports. :yikes:

On 11/28/2022 at 5:33 PM, George BM said:

BWI: 3.5"

DCA: 0.9"

IAD: 3.1"

RIC: 6.0"

Tiebreaker (SBY): 6.2"

 

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12 minutes ago, George BM said:

Am I the only one who's, perhaps irrationally, mildly annoyed that the February 1st event ruined our chance at a total 0" shutout year at the local airports?

 

 

Also... That feeling when your low-end troll forecast ends up too low at the three local airports. :yikes:

 

And your troll forecast edged out LIttle Village Wx by half a point!  Of course, if anyone had done the Super Troll forecast of all zeroes, s/he would have been a runaway winner.:) Regarding February 1st, I have mixed feelings -- I did experience the excitement of sweeping away the snow on top of my car that morning, even if I did not experience the excitement of lifting a snow shovel.:cry:

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On 3/15/2023 at 12:54 PM, 87storms said:

We got La Nina'd.

Indeed, but the previous record for lowest composite snowfall at the four major Mid-Atlantic airports that we use in this contest occurred just three years ago, during the ENSO-neutral winter season of 2019-20.  That season, the composite snow total was 6.8 inches, comprised of 1.8 at BWI, 0.6 at DCA, 2.9 at IAD, and 1.5 at RIC.

By the way, had history repeated itself and those same totals occurred this season, the order of finish in our contest would have been unchanged, although Little Village Wx would have had a negative departure at RIC.  However, he would still have won handily, with a a total departure of 9.2 vs 15.7 for runner-up PrinceFrederickWx. 

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8 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Thanks for running the contest Rodney. Hopefully next year it’s busier. :mellow:

(Btw LittleVillageWx trophy image isn’t loading for me, but I’m on my phone so maybe it’s just me)

If it's not as busy next year, it will be because of a complete shutout.;)

Regarding the trophy, it loaded for me until I lost power at my home about two hours ago -- it is no longer loading. :o Perhaps a computer guru can fix.  It should read the same as last year's trophy shown below, except the last two lines should be: 2022-23 Snowfall Contest/Little Village Wx

image.jpeg.b4a33b7b69d605d2e0b4792fb1f7b61d.jpeg

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19 minutes ago, RodneyS said:

If it's not as busy next year, it will be because of a complete shutout.;)

Regarding the trophy, it loaded for me until I lost power at my home about two hours ago -- it is no longer loading. :o Perhaps a computer guru can fix.  It should read the same as last year's trophy shown below, except the last two lines should be: 2022-23 Snowfall Contest/Little Village Wx

 

See if this works:

image.jpeg.3a41f2b809529349a9d32f0860bf12e9.jpeg

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On 4/1/2023 at 7:03 PM, RodneyS said:

Indeed, but the previous record for lowest composite snowfall at the four major Mid-Atlantic airports that we use in this contest occurred just three years ago, during the ENSO-neutral winter season of 2019-20.  That season, the composite snow total was 6.8 inches, comprised of 1.8 at BWI, 0.6 at DCA, 2.9 at IAD, and 1.5 at RIC.

By the way, had history repeated itself and those same totals occurred this season, the order of finish in our contest would have been unchanged, although Little Village Wx would have had a negative departure at RIC.  However, he would still have won handily, with a a total departure of 9.2 vs 15.7 for runner-up PrinceFrederickWx. 

I always felt like this winter reminded me of 19/20...I think we even had a similar arctic outbreak the last week of December like we did this past winter.  I think one difference that made this worse was that it was just generally dry (further limiting the chances of frozen)...or at least it seemed that way.

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On 4/1/2023 at 8:42 PM, RodneyS said:

See if this works:

image.jpeg.3a41f2b809529349a9d32f0860bf12e9.jpeg

Wow, cool...thanks!  I'd much rather have finished dead last but I never win anything so I'll take it!  I'm old enough to remember the almost snowless winter of '72-'73 and have long regarded that to be as disappointing a winter as could be had around these parts.  But even with '97-'98, '11-'12, and '19-'20 in the mix, I think this winter set a new standard for futility.  It wouldn't have taken much to register a true shutout and one would have to think such a winter may not be all that far into our future.  We'll sure find out!  Thanks for running the contest, Rodney!    

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