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July Medium/Long Range


Weather Will
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On 7/8/2022 at 8:55 AM, mattie g said:

Are fluid dynamics, mathematics, hydrology, thermodynamics, etc. not science any more?

15 day GFS ensemble mean hits it at like 85-90% for a stronger signal-pattern (>120dm in the mean). There are different intentions for different things. 

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Is it really gonna get hot that week is Chuck being Chuck? Lol

It would be relatively warmer as advertised, but nothing unusual/unexpected for this area mid summer. Based on the LR means the 'increased' heat won't be because of any significant shift in the pattern, but rather we will be into the window for peak heat climo. The h5 pattern progression as advertised for that period and beyond looks pretty familiar- western upper ridge nudges east, gets flattened, then retrogrades west.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_62.png

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3 hours ago, CAPE said:

It would be relatively warmer as advertised, but nothing unusual/unexpected for this area mid summer. Based on the LR means the 'increased' heat won't be because of any significant shift in the pattern, but rather we will be into the window for peak heat climo. The h5 pattern progression as advertised for that period and beyond looks pretty familiar- western upper ridge nudges east, gets flattened, then retrogrades west.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_62.png

Are you saying the warmest temps come in July? Kinda like predicting big cold in January.

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10 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Are you saying the warmest temps come in July? Kinda like predicting big cold in January.

Shocking.

Not a pattern I would expect to produce 5 days of 100. Ens means could be off. Chuck will probably be right about big heat eventually.

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Pretty high SD +WPO coming up. Surprisingly, the greater temp correlation is August, although episodes usually last only 7-13 days, so the center might be warmer. +EPO and WPO overperform here as temps vs short/medium term forecasts, so we can go higher the next few days. 

 

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We really only have another 2-3wks to get the big heat before it starts to cool off in time for fall. Hopefully we can avoid any crazy temps again this year. This is the first year I'll have been retired so will not have to work for September into October for outage season. It's always the best weather then and I've always had to work like 60hr weeks, but not this year. Can't wait to actually enjoy the fall weather for once.

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

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On 7/17/2022 at 2:18 PM, IronTy said:

We really only have another 2-3wks to get the big heat before it starts to cool off in time for fall. Hopefully we can avoid any crazy temps again this year. This is the first year I'll have been retired so will not have to work for September into October for outage season. It's always the best weather then and I've always had to work like 60hr weeks, but not this year. Can't wait to actually enjoy the fall weather for once.

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk
 

We have a 'moderately' warm period upcoming. More humid than hot. IF the seasonal trend continues, maybe we can largely avoid the second summer of Sept and Oct, and have seasonable temps and humidity. Would be nice for a change, but we are probably due for a longwave pattern shift.

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