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worst long term prediction ever ?


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16 hours ago, bdgwx said:

Most of us here are on the side of peer reviewed literature.  I have not seen "Children in North America and Europe won't know what snow is by the year 2015" or "There will be no ice on the polar caps in the summer" or "Seafront property will be underwater" (assuming the context is all seafront property here) appearing in the academic literature. BTW...SH sea ice is at record low levels for this date. That is actually unexpected. The IPCC predicted that sea ice in the SH would increase up to at least 2030 and possibly even 2060 before beginning the decline under most emission pathways. You might find it more beneficial to read the peer reviewed literature. I always recommend the IPCC as an entry point. AR6 WGI is only 2400 pages and relatively easy to read. You can then dive into the details by cross referencing the 10,000 or so first order citations and the hundreds of thousands or millions of second, third, etc. order citations as you feel the need.

We're also seeing widespread east coast sunny day coastal flooding so the sea level flooding thing is real and already happening.  That's why we're spending trillions of dollars on sea walls (even in red states), like Florida and South Carolina.  They know what's going to happen. We're doing that here in NY too.  And they have already started to move people away from islands off of the Louisiana coast and relocate them.

 

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Has any doom and gloom climate disaster prediction ever validated?? All we are shown are models....where is the verification? Disasters only please!!

Please list the ones that have actually occurred. I have so many failed predictions can we please find some real climate disaster facts to offset all of the failed predictions like below?

Thanks!
image.png.02b01175a5c3372863c3f93ef9df4570.png

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6 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Has any doom and gloom climate disaster prediction ever validated?? All we are shown are models....where is the verification? Disasters only please!!

Please list the ones that have actually occurred. I have so many failed predictions can we please find some real climate disaster facts to offset all of the failed predictions like below?

Thanks!
image.png.02b01175a5c3372863c3f93ef9df4570.png

Thanks to the Montreal Protocol in 1987, international collaboration enabled the phasing out of several chemicals that contributed to depleting the ozone layer. 

ozone-depleting-substance-consumption-768x542.png.ba56b35e081e2fda2ece48f8f82d3c5d.png

And after phasing out these chemicals, the rate of increase in the ozone hole virtually diminished. Atmospheric ozone is set to return to 1980 levels by 2040-2060. 

antarctic-ozone-hole-area.png.8ac8e11da0c550f2e7be5514aab3b69b.png

All this to say that the "doom and gloom" science prediction didn't verify because international collaboration favored immediate changes to prevent a long-term issue. Something we unfortunately haven't been able to do for AGW as of yet. 

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21 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Thanks to the Montreal Protocol in 1987, international collaboration enabled the phasing out of several chemicals that contributed to depleting the ozone layer. 

ozone-depleting-substance-consumption-768x542.png.ba56b35e081e2fda2ece48f8f82d3c5d.png

And after phasing out these chemicals, the rate of increase in the ozone hole virtually diminished. Atmospheric ozone is set to return to 1980 levels by 2040-2060. 

antarctic-ozone-hole-area.png.8ac8e11da0c550f2e7be5514aab3b69b.png

All this to say that the "doom and gloom" science prediction didn't verify because international collaboration favored immediate changes to prevent a long-term issue. Something we unfortunately haven't been able to do for AGW as of yet. 

So what climate disasters can we attribute so far to this AGW during the last 50+ years of our current warming cycle??

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5 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

So what climate disasters can we attribute so far to this AGW during the last 50+ years of our current warming cycle??

You are asking the wrong question. Going back 50 years, scientists have made very accurate predictions of future warming (see link below). Scientists have also gotten the consequences of warming right, but have underestimated the speed in many cases. For instance, sea level rise is proceeding at the upper end of projections. Ice sheets, permafrost, forests are all changing faster than anticipated. There is lag in the climate system. due oceans and ice sheets which have large thermal mass. While we see the impact of warming today: heat waves, flooding, forest fires, drought, sea level rise etc; much bigger change is projected for the future; unless we get our act together.

How about your own predictions? Below is a recent one that didn't take long to go belly up. Not surprising, deniers/skeptics have a horrible track record. The next cooling cycle is always just around the corner. Has been for decades.

https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/288430943.pdf

Screenshot 2023-02-02 at 14-21-32 E PA_NJ_DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread.png

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28 minutes ago, chubbs said:

You are asking the wrong question. Going back 50 years, scientists have made very accurate predictions of future warming (see link below). Scientists have also gotten the consequences of warming right, but have underestimated the speed in many cases. For instance, sea level rise is proceeding at the upper end of projections. Ice sheets, permafrost, forests are all changing faster than anticipated. There is lag in the climate system. due oceans and ice sheets which have large thermal mass. While we see the impact of warming today: heat waves, flooding, forest fires, drought, sea level rise etc; much bigger change is projected for the future; unless we get our act together.

How about your own predictions? Below is a recent one that didn't take long to go belly up. Not surprising, deniers/skeptics have a horrible track record. The next cooling cycle is always just around the corner. Has been for decades.

https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/288430943.pdf

Screenshot 2023-02-02 at 14-21-32 E PA_NJ_DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread.png

LOL belly up??? Sorry Charlie my forecast was actually indeed spot on as we did finish with our 3rd below normal December in the last 12 years as I predicted! Again just the facts!! Not surprising, as climate alarmists have a horrible track record of identifying actual events that have impacted the actual weather. So tell me again which weather calamity has befallen us due to this warming???

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On 8/25/2022 at 5:22 PM, stadiumwave said:

I seem to recall several almost promising there's no way we would not have a total Arctic Sea summer melt by 2020. Go read the forum in 2012. 

I'd say everyone is a little lousy at climate  predictions. All that's ever remembered are the misses of the opponent. 

Humility is good for all!

Al Gore, the ‘expert’ claimed it would be nice free beginning in 08. 
 

I don’t think that ended up well. 
 

now he claims 600,000 Hiroshima atomic-bombs worth of harmful gasses go to our atmosphere every single day, without a shred of evidence to support it. 
 

the planet will find a way. 

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On 8/27/2022 at 11:27 AM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

The mass extinction event, if there is one, will probably be war(s) because some  places are becoming for favorable for human life and some places become more hostile.  Almost all of the SW past 100W seems unsustainable soon based on the trends.  Los Angeles and San Francisco can build desalinization plants someday, but that won't work well in California's Central Valley, Phoenix or Las Vegas.  Water wars around the world would seem possible.  I'd think most of the ECUSA cities will be able to adjust if the rate of sea level change stays modest.  Miami, maybe not.

 

Famine in countries of limited military means to secure water would probably happen.  Probably not a K-T boundary asteroid extinction event, barring a major nuclear exchange.  My understanding is Siberia will become more favorable for agriculture, or the nation whose leader threatens first strike nuclear attacks may not need a war.

California and the pacific NW won’t have to worry about sea level rise, their sea level is dropping due to the Sierra Nevada mountains still growing. 
 

the east coast is sinking. Therefore the sea level ‘rise’ is more apparent.

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On 1/14/2023 at 9:31 AM, SnOvechkin said:

He doesn't make any predictions. The only time he even wanders into that territory he says "by 2030."  The unbelievable lack of self-awareness it takes to post something like this when you are on the side of "Children in North America and Europe won't know what snow is by the year 2015" or "There will be no ice on the polar caps in the summer" (It reached record levels in the southern hemisphere a couple years later) or "Seafront property will be underwater" (The bankers and climate fraudsters are still buying up ocean front property because the water levels haven't budged). Or the side that worries that warm temperatures -- associated with abundance of life would be something to worry about to begin with! Imagine thinking it would be better to slide into an ice age than to turn the entire planet into a tropical paradise!

You're a bunch of lunatics. Literally worse than every other religion combined. Doomsday prophecies you merely push back by 10 years every time they fail to materialize. At least the Christians believe God is coming to save them. You think you need to enslave all of the non-believers or the world is going to end in -- what is it, now? Seven years?

Please seek help.

Spot on. 
 

banks would not be providing loans for apartment complexes, homes, you name it in areas that are supposed to be underwater by whatever-the-date-is-now. 
 

im sure we are all aware of the photo stunt our girl Greta had with the cops when she was protesting a coal mine in Germany. She was laughing and posing with them. In an interview I saw, she seemed clueless about the climate in general. She’s a puppet. 

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7 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

So what climate disasters can we attribute so far to this AGW during the last 50+ years of our current warming cycle??

We are well on our way to a blue ocean event, as annual arctic sea ice steadily trends downwards.

what-is-a-blue-ocean-event-and-how-will-it-impact-global-climate.png.a2e5aea3cbee0f8e7d9a584540d84c78.png

The AMOC is the weakest it's been in the last 1,000 years

41561_2021_699_Fig1_HTML.png.1520794b1ea0b32c78886c08ea7b3f43.png

On the scale of economic damage due to climate change, insured losses due to extreme weather are on the rise. I believe this isn't adjusted for inflation, but even factoring that in shows a steady increase. Note the decoupling between man-made disasters and weather/natural catastrophes.

FnU69C4WIAUJ8Ur.thumb.jpg.c086979fd7352eda9fe752751187971f.jpg

On that note, a 2019 survey found that 72% of insurance firms believed that climate change would impact their business. Given how shortsighted the market is for understanding climate change risks, that is a telling statistic. 

 

For a more localized event, the 2021 PNW heatwave is said to have had a return period of about 1 in 1,000 years in today's climate, but it was reported that the event was made ~150x more common given human-induced climate change, and that in a world that is 2C above pre-industrial levels (0.8C more warming), that return period could be closer to 5-10 years.

https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/NW-US-extreme-heat-2021-scientific-report-WWA.pdf

 

I understand that you used the word "attribute" specifically to question whether climate change has had a direct role in any given event, but you should know that's not how our climate system works. Instead, I posted the above examples to show how ~1-1.2C of AGW has nudged different indicators of our planet's climate in specific and predictable directions. Adding more energy to a system will do that. All 4 of the examples I've provided have literature behind them that suggests that climate change has contributed to the shifts that we've seen. Again, not direct attribution, but substantial contribution. A shifting of baselines you could say.

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

Sorry Charlie my forecast was actually indeed spot on as we did finish with our 3rd below normal December in the last 12 years as I predicted! 

I think they were poking fun at how you suggested that December was the start of a "cooling cycle of local climate", followed by a substantially AN month for your region and much of North America. 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

We are well on our way to a blue ocean event, as annual arctic sea ice steadily trends downwards.

what-is-a-blue-ocean-event-and-how-will-it-impact-global-climate.png.a2e5aea3cbee0f8e7d9a584540d84c78.png

The AMOC is the weakest it's been in the last 1,000 years

41561_2021_699_Fig1_HTML.png.1520794b1ea0b32c78886c08ea7b3f43.png

On the scale of economic damage due to climate change, insured losses due to extreme weather are on the rise. I believe this isn't adjusted for inflation, but even factoring that in shows a steady increase. Note the decoupling between man-made disasters and weather/natural catastrophes.

FnU69C4WIAUJ8Ur.thumb.jpg.c086979fd7352eda9fe752751187971f.jpg

On that note, a 2019 survey found that 72% of insurance firms believed that climate change would impact their business. Given how shortsighted the market is for understanding climate change risks, that is a telling statistic. 

 

For a more localized event, the 2021 PNW heatwave is said to have had a return period of about 1 in 1,000 years in today's climate, but it was reported that the event was made ~150x more common given human-induced climate change, and that in a world that is 2C above pre-industrial levels (0.8C more warming), that return period could be closer to 5-10 years.

https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/NW-US-extreme-heat-2021-scientific-report-WWA.pdf

 

I understand that you used the word "attribute" specifically to question whether climate change has had a direct role in any given event, but you should know that's not how our climate system works. Instead, I posted the above examples to show how ~1-1.2C of AGW has nudged different indicators of our planet's climate in specific and predictable directions. Adding more energy to a system will do that. All 4 of the examples I've provided have literature behind them that suggests that climate change has contributed to the shifts that we've seen. Again, not direct attribution, but substantial contribution. A shifting of baselines you could say.

I think they were poking fun at how you suggested that December was the start of a "cooling cycle of local climate", followed by a substantially AN month for your region and much of North America. 

 

 

 

I do indeed believe we are heading back to a few cooler decades in a row likely starting this decade....it just makes cyclical sense. A warm month of January and even a February will do nothing to disprove my cooling cycle prediction....

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28 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

I do indeed believe we are heading back to a few cooler decades in a row likely starting this decade....it just makes cyclical sense. A warm month of January and even a February will do nothing to disprove my cooling cycle prediction....

This is a heck of a way to run a "cooling" cycle.

wilmwinter.png

Screenshot 2023-02-02 at 18-09-31 xmACIS2.png

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Over 90% of the heat in the climate system is stored in the ocean. Currently, the climate system is out of equilibrium and warming rapidly on a geologic scale (ocean warming below). Good luck getting a "cooling cycle" when more energy is coming in from the sun than being radiated out.

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00376-023-2385-2.pdf

oceanwarming.jpg

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7 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

I do indeed believe we are heading back to a few cooler decades in a row likely starting this decade....it just makes cyclical sense. A warm month of January and even a February will do nothing to disprove my cooling cycle prediction....

JB thought that would happen in the 2010s, instead we had the fastest warming decade on record 

There's nothing to suggest a cooling cycle. Net emissions are still rising, waters warming rapidly. Our baseline will increase with the next big Nino event possibly near 1.5C 

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12 hours ago, chubbs said:

This is a heck of a way to run a "cooling" cycle.

wilmwinter.png

Screenshot 2023-02-02 at 18-09-31 xmACIS2.png

And of course when we go back a bit further back to better understand the you know....actual cyclical pattern - a heck of a way to run a warmup during the 1st 7 decades of the 20th century - quite the cycle of cooling at most rural sites in Chester County PA before the current cycle of warming

image.thumb.png.6bb1aeefa8eb926bdaa9d74fd71cd20e.png

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1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

And of course when we go back a bit further back to better understand the you know....actual cyclical pattern - a heck of a way to run a warmup during the 1st 7 decades of the 20th century - quite the cycle of cooling at most rural sites in Chester County PA before the current cycle of warming

image.thumb.png.6bb1aeefa8eb926bdaa9d74fd71cd20e.png

We've been over this a million times. The coop stations cooled when modern equipment was introduced. Fortunately, as shown in your chart, the coop station changes occurred at different times and can be easily identified by comparing stations. When properly analyzed, the "cooling" shrinks, leaving a long-term warming trend.

 

 

Screenshot 2023-02-03 at 08-03-31 County Time Series Climate at a Glance National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).png

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12 minutes ago, chubbs said:

We've been over this a million times. The coop stations cooled when modern equipment was introduced. Fortunately, as shown in your chart, the coop station changes occurred at different times and can be easily identified by comparing stations. When properly analyzed, the "cooling" shrinks, leaving a long-term warming trend.

 

 

Screenshot 2023-02-03 at 08-03-31 County Time Series Climate at a Glance National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).png

Right...."properly analyzed" is your code for post observation adjustments that help address that pesky warming cycle that throws the monkey wrench in any analysis of actual data that purports to show a never ending warming pattern

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1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

Right...."properly analyzed" is your code for post observation adjustments that help address that pesky warming cycle that throws the monkey wrench in any analysis of actual data that purports to show a never ending warming pattern

How about we track your cooling cycle prediction in this thread?  Lets see if you do any better than JB.

 

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19 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

LOL belly up??? Sorry Charlie my forecast was actually indeed spot on as we did finish with our 3rd below normal December in the last 12 years as I predicted! Again just the facts!! Not surprising, as climate alarmists have a horrible track record of identifying actual events that have impacted the actual weather. So tell me again which weather calamity has befallen us due to this warming???

I believe one of the events predicted was increased flooding events due to a warmer atmosphere.  Maybe it's just news coverage (which I doubt), but it seems to me that in the U.S as well as numerous other parts of the world,  this prediction has certainly proved valid.  Even here in NJ, rainfall events of over an inch seem fairly normal.  I don't remember that being the case in my past.

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1 hour ago, chubbs said:

How about we track your cooling cycle prediction in this thread?  Lets see if you do any better than JB.

 

Let's do it!! although I suspect we see a couple more warm years in 2023 and 2024 before a steady state to decline in temps starts to take place later in this decade of the 2020's and of course cooler decade in the 2030's - but yes let's track it over the next 17 years and see where we stand when we get to December 31, 2039 - looking forward to reviewing the actual data at that time!!

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1 hour ago, wkd said:

I believe one of the events predicted was increased flooding events due to a warmer atmosphere.  Maybe it's just news coverage (which I doubt), but it seems to me that in the U.S as well as numerous other parts of the world,  this prediction has certainly proved valid.  Even here in NJ, rainfall events of over an inch seem fairly normal.  I don't remember that being the case in my past.

I went back and did an analysis on 1" plus rainfall events from 1894 through 2022

  • Overall we average 12.6 such events per year
  • From 1894 to 1959 we averaged 11.8 such events per year
  • From 1960 to 2022 we average 13.1 events per year so on average we are seeing 1.3 more 1" rain events on an annual basis....so I guess we think climate change is giving us 1 additional 1" rain event per year is troublesome?? catastrophe?
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18 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

I do indeed believe we are heading back to a few cooler decades in a row likely starting this decade....it just makes cyclical sense. A warm month of January and even a February will do nothing to disprove my cooling cycle prediction....

Well I think that's the point. One warm or cold month gives little if any context for prevailing trends or "cycles", so using December to confirm the start of a long term cooling trend is a bit haphazard. 

 

And you say the following decades will be cooler (presumably cooler than this last decade). What do you anticipate will change that will cause that cooling? As posted above, the heat content in the oceans is steadily increasing, do you believe that trend will reverse in the coming years, and if so, why?

 

 

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1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

Let's do it!! although I suspect we see a couple more warm years in 2023 and 2024 before a steady state to decline in temps starts to take place later in this decade of the 2020's and of course cooler decade in the 2030's - but yes let's track it over the next 17 years and see where we stand when we get to December 31, 2039 - looking forward to reviewing the actual data at that time!!

lol, waffling already

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8 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Well I think that's the point. One warm or cold month gives little if any context for prevailing trends or "cycles", so using December to confirm the start of a long term cooling trend is a bit haphazard. 

 

And you say the following decades will be cooler (presumably cooler than this last decade). What do you anticipate will change that will cause that cooling? As posted above, the heat content in the oceans is steadily increasing, do you believe that trend will reverse in the coming years, and if so, why?

 

 

Not really that difficult - it's the simple cyclical nature of our climate....we warm - we cool - we warm - we cool... rinse and repeat. The actual data is clear climate change is real and the cycles are constant it both warms and cools.

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3 minutes ago, chubbs said:

lol, waffling already

Not at all....climate cycles take time and not one year or two....here in Chester County we have experience multiple cooler decades and now multiple warmer decades - so let's review at the end of the next decade and see how it looks.

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12 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Not at all....climate cycles take time and not one year or two....here in Chester County we have experience multiple cooler decades and now multiple warmer decades - so let's review at the end of the next decade and see how it looks.

Where is the courage of your convictions? We'll have North Carolina's climate by end of the next decade. And you will still be in denial. With steady warming it didn't take long to see that JB was wrong and it won't take long to evaluate your prediction either.

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3 hours ago, wkd said:

I believe one of the events predicted was increased flooding events due to a warmer atmosphere.  Maybe it's just news coverage (which I doubt), but it seems to me that in the U.S as well as numerous other parts of the world,  this prediction has certainly proved valid.  Even here in NJ, rainfall events of over an inch seem fairly normal.  I don't remember that being the case in my past.

So you’re concluding we’ve had more rainfalls over 1 inch than in the past?  
 

any data to support that?

 

Are creek/river water levels in nj above, below, or at normal flows right now on the whole?

 

reservoir levels? Surely those must be above normal now too.

 

also, I think sensationalized news coverage is probably the cause of you thinking we’ve had more flooding events. Everything in the news is sensationalized now. 

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1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

I went back and did an analysis on 1" plus rainfall events from 1894 through 2022

  • Overall we average 12.6 such events per year
  • From 1894 to 1959 we averaged 11.8 such events per year
  • From 1960 to 2022 we average 13.1 events per year so on average we are seeing 1.3 more 1" rain events on an annual basis....so I guess we think climate change is giving us 1 additional 1" rain event per year is troublesome?? catastrophe?

Catastrophe?  I doubt it from my elevation (120').  But tell me the truth from your perspective, as you live relatively nearby.  Have average rainfall amounts per event increased in the last one or two decades.

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29 minutes ago, chubbs said:

Where is the courage of your convictions? We'll have North Carolina's climate by end of the next decade. And you will still be in denial. With steady warming it didn't take long to see that JB was wrong and it won't take long to evaluate your prediction either.

North Carolina huh? I suspect that "predicted event" will go the same way as all of the other climate predictions....nowhere fast!! LOL!!

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