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Spring 2022 Medium/Long Range Discussion


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12 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Top shelf stuff.  This is what I drool over.

Capture.JPG

I thought those numbers looked cool when I first saw it, but then I realized that it is the anomaly map.  :lol:

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25 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Long range GFS has really been trolling you guys.

I'm sure it will eventually back off some on the extent of the troughing and cooler air, but still...

The long range GFS has a cold bias from what I can tell and is usually an outlier compared to other models and even its own ensembles.

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50 minutes ago, Maxim said:

The long range GFS has a cold bias from what I can tell and is usually an outlier compared to other models and even its own ensembles.

Manf of the ensembles do show decent troughing too, though not to the extent of the OP.

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3 hours ago, Powerball said:

Manf of the ensembles do show decent troughing too, though not to the extent of the OP.

Maybe for the Northern Plains. Looks seasonable for the Midwest/Ohio Valley after the upcoming torch. Speaking of which, the new 18z run is a wall-to-wall torch from start to finish, goes to show how unreliable the OP is.

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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

The CPC is worse than the SPC, and that’s a hard feat to accomplish in the first place.

It seems to me like NOAA's work overall has gone downhill over the course of the last ~10 years but accelerated over the last 5. Does this fit with your observations or do you think it runs longer than that?

Is it over-reliance on modern high-res NWP (things like the HRRR and such are good tools, but even they miss a lot of stuff and/or forecast storms that don't happen, even at very short range like 5/20/19)? Is it politically motivated disinvestment/a shift toward the private sector leading the weather enterprise? Some combination thereof?

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8 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I feel like the CPC outlooks posted just a few days ago or so were showing the complete opposite.

Edit: Found 'em on ST Discord, yep, the one issued 5/22 was showing AA temps and precip for the Midwest 5/30-6/5.

 

6 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

It seems to me like NOAA's work overall has gone downhill over the course of the last ~10 years but accelerated over the last 5. Does this fit with your observations or do you think it runs longer than that?

Is it over-reliance on modern high-res NWP (things like the HRRR and such are good tools, but even they miss a lot of stuff and/or forecast storms that don't happen, even at very short range like 5/20/19)? Is it politically motivated disinvestment/a shift toward the private sector leading the weather enterprise? Some combination thereof?

Forecasts 10-14 days out have always had poor predictability and are bound to change, even significantly. There are so many factors on a mesoscale level (which might as well be impossible to predict at such a long range) that can influence how large-scale patterns evolve and the resultant temperature/precipitation people observe. At best, predictions that far out are educated guesses based on past observations. But if weather is anything like history, it can rhyme but never repeats.

As far as short-term forecasts, also in recent history, we as average joes have also become way overexposed to a lot more weather forecasting tools than we were traditionally privy to, and that's without necessarily having a complete understanding of the science behind them. If you think back in the 90s or even the early 2000s, we weren't able to easily pull up radars, satellites, model outputs, skew-t soundings, indices, SSTs, MJO plots, etc. that are used for predictions like we are in 2022.

I guess my point being, I'm not so sure NOAA's accuracy is any worse or better today than it was in the past. I think it's mostly an issue of information overload for us average joes in combination with modern meteorologists' desire to be overly precise with their forecasts that it leaves them more vulnerable to critiques when things don't go as they predict

That's my take, but maybe I missed your angle...

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13 minutes ago, Baum said:

^

nah. right on cue. lock it in until january 15th.

1/15 huh?  That's a little long.  I'm basically assuming that December will be a hostile winter pattern again though.  I don't care what anybody is predicting or what analogs may say.  There have been too many bad Decembers lately so I'll believe a good one when I see it.

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13 hours ago, Hoosier said:

1/15 huh?  That's a little long.  I'm basically assuming that December will be a hostile winter pattern again though.  I don't care what anybody is predicting or what analogs may say.  There have been too many bad Decembers lately so I'll believe a good one when I see it.

we caught a break this year on 12/31. I believe year before pattern was null until mid January...and of course thereafter....took off.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

GFS with a nice heat discharge from the southwest as we approach mid-month.

PNA progged to trend downward during this time.  Heat signal may be legit.  I need one of Chi Storm's pattern posts to confirm though.  This dude should be all over it given his love for heat/humidity.

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20 hours ago, Hoosier said:

PNA progged to trend downward during this time.  Heat signal may be legit.  I need one of Chi Storm's pattern posts to confirm though.  This dude should be all over it given his love for heat/humidity.

 

images (20).jpeg

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One thing I would say is that over the years we have seen where modeled heat in the mid-long range gets reduced in magnitude/duration due to convective influences, so that is always a potential failure mode to keep in mind.  But in the big picture, it seems like a well-telegraphed signal for at least the potential of a hot stretch commencing around mid-month.

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On 6/4/2022 at 1:45 PM, Hoosier said:

PNA progged to trend downward during this time.  Heat signal may be legit.  I need one of Chi Storm's pattern posts to confirm though.  This dude should be all over it given his love for heat/humidity.

 

8 hours ago, Baum said:

 

images (20).jpeg

I've been busy with a bunch of trips the past month or so, so I really haven't been around much. It definitely does look to flip to a more summer-like pattern though for the second half of the month, given how things look as of now.

 

As I saw Powerball somewhat recently mention, the more spring-like (mild/lack of severe) pattern we are currently in has been due in large part to a -NAO/+PNA/-AO combo that has been in place, which has lead to persistent troughing across the SE Canada/Midwest/Great Lakes region. While this persistent troughing will stick around this week and next weekend, large scale changes in the pattern are already starting to occur and will continue to occur this week. After next weekend (Weekend of 11/12th) is when the noticeable change will take place across this sub-forum, as we will lose the aforementioned persistent troughing, and ridging attempts to build in. With a fluid situation over the PAC/AK, there is some agreement on another transient trough moving eastward-ish along the Canada/US border. Beyond that, ENS have a large ridge building in across the heart of the country, starting later next week (June 16/17th?), behind the aforementioned transient trough for next week.

 

I'm not sure how ENS or teleconnections have faired since late April since I haven't been around to follow, so we'll see how they handle this pattern change. For now though, there is a large amount of agreement, even in the longer range.

1655575200-YsDNsN0jnIE.png

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Not ready for the "short range" thread yet, but GFS has been pretty consist with keying in on some sort of severe threat in parts of the sub next Tuesday-Wednesday. Some pretty impressive :twister: soundings in WI on some runs, but as usual they're irritatingly close to being up in the woods and/or the nigh-unchaseable Driftless Area/Wisconsin River valley.

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9 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Not ready for the "short range" thread yet, but GFS has been pretty consist with keying in on some sort of severe threat in parts of the sub next Tuesday-Wednesday. Some pretty impressive :twister: soundings in WI on some runs, but as usual they're irritatingly close to being up in the woods and/or the nigh-unchaseable Driftless Area/Wisconsin River valley.

Just put it there.  In previous years the severe thread was titled short/medium range.

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Airmass next week (e.g. 850 mb temps over 20C and fairly muggy) looks like one that could be capable of producing an 80 degree low in Chicago.  We'll see if it works out timing wise and not have a poorly timed cold front.  There has never been an 80 degree low that early in the season though.

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1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

yeah this new climate has pretty much shut the door on record daytime highs, all about the record high lows now

It has indeed become harder to set record highs in summer in the Midwest.  Other times of year not as hard.  I think a lot of it has to do with the land use/farming practices, which has tended to prevent extreme summer max temps while resulting in higher dews (with some exceptions like 2012).  Obviously Chicago itself is not a farming mecca, but it doesn't really matter when we're talking about such a large area upstream... it affects everybody. 

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Speaking of how record highs in summer have become harder to come by in the last decade or so, here's a breakdown of the number of record highs (including ties) by season for Chicago since 2013.  For simplicity, I did this according to meteorological seasons.  

While it's only one location, I suspect other areas in the sub would also have numbers favoring the seasons outside of met summer.

 

Met winter:  11

Met spring:  7

Met summer:  2

Met fall:  13

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