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Tn Valley Severe Weather


jaxjagman
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6 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Not sure how they didn't issue a tornado watch here. 

This was posted 25 minutes ago.

 

 

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

 

   SUMMARY...A tornado watch may be needed across eastern Tennessee and

   potentially into far western North Carolina.

 

   DISCUSSION...A supercell has moved east of watch 79 across eastern

   Tennessee. Additional storm development is questionable as

   widespread thunderstorms have developed to the west with anvil

   debris across much of eastern Tennessee. However, at least scattered

   supercell development remains possible through early evening. The

   MRX VWP currently shows less than 100 m2/s2 0-1km SRH with the

   stronger low-level jet to the west. This wind profile is expected to

   increase after 00Z as this low-level jet slowly moves east. A

   tornado watch will eventually be needed this evening, as low-level

   shear and storm coverage increases.

mcd0355.png

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Monday morning got out of the gate quickly, but the afternoon / evening underperformed forecasts in our region.

On 4/1/2024 at 1:20 PM, nrgjeff said:

I suppose April climo they gotta drop the 10% tor for Tuesday. NAM suite is quite linear and positive tilt. LLJ never restrengthens or backs late Tuesday. Now the Globals do so, and I figure CAMs like RRFS and HRRR do too; because, they go line of pearls.

My gut says the NAM but it has a cool bias. That said the NAM can sniff out LLJ failures. So if you get anxious about severe, don't fret just yet. If you chase, it's conditional. I'll be tied down with work so no chase plans.

NAM sniffed out the issue Monday afternoon and evening. LLJ didn't ever recover here. It did Ohio Valley, enough for them to overcome our cutting off moisture. Then the Deep South had some classic late evening. Severe is often a headache to forecast outside the Plains.

Couple tor reports North Alabama. Of course the Tennessee Cumberland Plateau got its obligatory tor. I believe the elevation, while staying relatively flat, gets greater low level flow. 

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  • 4 weeks later...

The Midwest these last 2 days have been hit hard by tornadoes.  
 

Then yesterday China was hit by a strong tornado.  5 dead & 33 injured.  Video of it is really crazy.  Its was like a the whole storm was the tornado itself. 
 

 

IMG_6188.png

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Forget trade wars and tariffs. USA and China want a tornado war. Well, it's better than a military war!

Indeed severe season has made the shift out to the Plains. If you are weather anxious here in the South, you can start to relax. Yeah, we have more of the season to go, but the wedge outbreak season is pretty much over in the South.

Now we can still get plenty of mesoscale setups, and I intend to find them. I might have used up my kitchen capital on the eclipse, so a Plains trip is questionable this year. 

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I expect parts of the Mid-South and Midwest to join the SPC Day 4-8 day outlook in the next day or two; so, look Friday or Saturday. 

It's wild how the Great Plains could get whacked Monday, then get quiet. Then the trough slows down to gradually work through the Mid-South and Midwest (IL/IN/OH). Each day a wave slides around the base and ejects out. LLJ responds. Kentucky could get clipped next week.

Feels late in the season but it's not. Early May is still the heart of the season. Most of those states peak in May too.

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On 5/2/2024 at 5:42 PM, jaxjagman said:

Pretty active April,not much of anything in Tn

GMmo2CFbQAEGlTm.jpg

Looks like multi days of all modes of severe wx this week.  SPC has pretty strong wording.  Spreading into middle TN late Tuesday into Wednesday.  
Flooding rains looks very likely. 

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On 5/2/2024 at 2:08 PM, nrgjeff said:

I expect parts of the Mid-South and Midwest to join the SPC Day 4-8 day outlook in the next day or two; so, look Friday or Saturday. 

It's wild how the Great Plains could get whacked Monday, then get quiet. Then the trough slows down to gradually work through the Mid-South and Midwest (IL/IN/OH). Each day a wave slides around the base and ejects out. LLJ responds. Kentucky could get clipped next week.

Feels late in the season but it's not. Early May is still the heart of the season. Most of those states peak in May too.

Like freaking bombs...lol

 

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On 5/4/2024 at 4:56 PM, Matthew70 said:

Looks like multi days of all modes of severe wx this week.  SPC has pretty strong wording.  Spreading into middle TN late Tuesday into Wednesday.  
Flooding rains looks very likely. 

Best day of severe right now seems to be Tues/Wed like you said,low level shear picks up Tuesday into Wed,other wise looks more wind and possibly severe hail.But i agree flooding could be a issue with training cells.Pollen has been pretty brutal here,its good to get some rain

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I'm gonna need that crap to stay north of the Ohio River. Mid-South will probably invade Tennessee Wednesday evening with straight line winds though. So long as the WF or rain enhanced outflow boundary does not get into Tennessee - stays Ohio River Valley - (most of) the tornadoes should stay up there too.

No reason to hype the Tennessee Valley. It's actually still peak season, early May is just more late April; however, the synoptics situation favors the Ohio River Valley. Mid-South is kind of on the borderline. Again augmented boundaries could still play a role, but the synoptic situation overall is north.

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National Weather Service Nashville TN
210 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Radar is clear at forecast time. Same goes for the satellite.
With small to almost zero dew point depressions, fog has already
started to develop in many areas across Middle TN. Right now, only
a couple of spots are showing anything dense, but this may change
over the next couple of hours. Winds at about 1kft are 20 kts off
the OHX VAD profiler and this may be enough to keep us from
getting widespread dense stuff, but an advisory may become
necessary in the next couple of hours.

Well, I`m glad I bumped PoPs from what the NBM gave me yesterday
morning. However, storms WAY overperformed yesterday afternoon from
what I was seeing in the models at this time yesterday morning. CAPE
was near 2000 J/Kg as expected, but even with meager shear, storms
were able to produce large hail, damaging wind and from the look of
it, possibly a couple tornadoes. That does not bode well for the
next couple of days because forecast soundings over the next 72
hours look much more severe than yesterday.

Let`s start with today. Remnants of yesterday`s High Risk area over
the Plains merged into a QLCS last night, which is now wreaking
havoc over western Missouri. This QLCS feature will continue pushing
eastward through the morning hours and while latest CAMs have it
falling apart upstream from us late this morning, the residual
outflows from this system may very well provide us with the lift I
thought we may be missing today. Forecast soundings are healthy.
2500+ CAPE values, lapse rates similar to yesterday and much better
shear values than I was seeing for yesterday`s storms. For these
reasons, while I think damaging wind gusts (60+ mph) and large hail
will be the main threats, any storms that develop will likely be
rotating, so while lower on the totem pole, I can`t rule out a
tornado threat. In addition, with the amount of rain we`ve received
over the last couple of days and PWs in the 90th percentile this
afternoon, localized flash flooding is also possible. Please don`t
sleep on the flash flood threat and heed any warnings that may be
issued. Ok. That`s just the afternoon. Almost across the board, CAMs
are showing additional development tonight as another wave passes
through the region. While we lose some of the heating of the day,
CAPE values only fall into the 1000-1500 J/Kg range. This means
we`ll hold onto plenty of instability during the overnight hours.
Deep layer shear holds steady around 40 kts and helicities are such
to sustain updrafts. This means we`ll hold an overnight severe
threat, as well, with any additional storms that develop. It also
means that we`re going to be dealing with overnight severe potential
two nights in a row.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

While today and tonight`s severe threat is healthy, that might make
Wednesday`s severe potential super human. In fact, with the forecast
soundings I`m seeing I am becoming a little worried. As tonight`s
storms wane towards daybreak, the boundary created by them is
actually being picked up in some of our models. This is unusual and
may serve as a quasi-warm front that is expected to slowly lift back
to the north during the late morning and early afternoon hours on
Wednesday. As it lifts, there is some signal of convection
developing along this boundary. With forecast soundings showing
3000+ CAPE south of the boundary, plenty of shear and mid-level
lapse rates closing in on 7.0 deg/km, there is some concern of
discrete supercell development Wednesday afternoon. Supercell
composites closing in on 10.0 and STP values nearing 2.0 suggest a
fairly decent chance of tornado development. In addition, lapse
rates only get worse through the afternoon. This means large hail
(1.5 inches or larger) is going to be possible. While the afternoon
potential for severe weather is more on the isolated to scattered
level, yet another round of much more widespread storms is still
expected Wednesday night. Again, this is an all-mode severe weather
threat overnight Wednesday into early Thursday morning, with
damaging wind gusts, large hail, tornadoes and flash flooding all
possible.

The next 48-60 hours is going to be VERY active across Middle TN.
This is not a time to fret, however. Take this morning and review
your safety plan for you and your family. Know where you need to go
for shelter if you go under a warning. Wherever that shelter may
be, have essential items in there waiting for you. Phone chargers,
NOAA Weather Radios, helmets for the kiddos, just to name a few.
If you need additional support for making a plan, please visit
ready.gov/plan to help you put one together. Don`t wait until you
go under a warning. Be prepared. Especially with overnight severe
threats for the next two nights. Don`t go to bed without having
your phone fully charged and the volume turned up so you can wake
up and get to shelter.

Once we get through early Thursday morning, I think the severe
threat is over. There is an outlier signal from the NAM that the
front may not get all the way through Middle TN on Thursday and we
could see additional storms Thursday night across our south, but
let`s deal with that once we get through the next two days. By
Friday, temperatures relax back into the 70s and while the GFS is
suggesting some showers and storms on Saturday, most models do not,
so hopefully we can remain dry for several days after Thursday
morning.
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