TimB Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, MikeB_01 said: Back to weather.... I am getting in here late and am trying to sort through alot right now. The NWS Ice graphic changed dramatically in 6 hours. The afternoon update had .25 over most of AGC. The 6pm update down to less than a 10th? What changed? Realistically that’s what I was trying to figure out too before we got off on this tangent. The warm air hangs on longer but would think based on nearly every model, 1.1” of snow and 0.09” of ice seems like a lowball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Realistically that’s what I was trying to figure out too before we got off on this tangent. The warm air hangs on longer but would think based on nearly every model, 1.1” of snow and 0.09” of ice seems like a lowball. Yeah as of now its looking like we get a lot of rain and very little ice/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: Realistically that’s what I was trying to figure out too before we got off on this tangent. The warm air hangs on longer but would think based on nearly every model, 1.1” of snow and 0.09” of ice seems like a lowball. The interesting thing is in the forecasters discussion. They are mentioning that the change over to zr by "early-mid afternoon". This is the 9pm update and it seems to go against their graphics. Are we really lacking consistency in our own forecasting office? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, MikeB_01 said: The interesting thing is in the forecasters discussion. They are mentioning that the change over to zr by "early-mid afternoon". This is the 9pm update and it seems to go against their graphics. Are we really lacking consistency in our own forecasting office? And they broad-brush us into the same warning with Clarion County and the like. And I’m not sure why the warning goes into effect at 4am either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: The interesting thing is in the forecasters discussion. They are mentioning that the change over to zr by "early-mid afternoon". This is the 9pm update and it seems to go against their graphics. Are we really lacking consistency in our own forecasting office? Unless I'm missing something on the soundings there looks like there is zero evidence of any changeover until late evening at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Yeah as of now its looking like we get a lot of rain and very little ice/snow. Good. Snow was always unlikely. Avoid the ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, KPITSnow said: Good. Snow was always unlikely. Avoid the ice. I was thinking the same thing for awhile but now I think I’m rooting for the ice to keep this from being the total snoozefest that it appears to be turning into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: The interesting thing is in the forecasters discussion. They are mentioning that the change over to zr by "early-mid afternoon". This is the 9pm update and it seems to go against their graphics. Are we really lacking consistency in our own forecasting office? Well look at the graphic, there's literally 50 - 100 miles between starting at 10am and starting at 10pm. So it the discussion was written relative to the NWS office that's probably accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 this will all depend on how far that front gets before it truly stalls for a few hours. Per usual, AGC is the battle. If the county sits at 32°, we are in an ugly spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Remember, regular rain is the only p-type we get in May, and June, and July, and August, and September, and 97% of April and October, and a majority of March and November. Would it kill us to see something interesting like copious amounts of ice or sleet tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, RitualOfTheTrout said: Well look at the graphic, there's literally 50 - 100 miles between starting at 10am and starting at 10pm. So it the discussion was written relative to the NWS office that's probably accurate. It looks like the progress of the cold just stops for hours once it reaches the outskirts of Allegheny county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: Remember, regular rain is the only p-type we get in May, and June, and July, and August, and September, and 97% of April and October, and a majority of March and November. Would it kill us to see something interesting like copious amounts of ice or sleet tomorrow? Yeah it might literally kill people if we see ice so no thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, TimB84 said: And they broad-brush us into the same warning with Clarion County and the like. And I’m not sure why the warning goes into effect at 4am either. Yeah I don't get grouping it altogether when there will be such drastic differences across the warned area. Schools already closed by me for tomorrow but it will likely rain til 10pm. I get that with the ability to just go virtual it makes it easier to just call it now and avoid any surprises and err on the side of safety but seems a bit extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, southpark said: It looks like the progress of the cold just stops for hours once it reaches the outskirts of Allegheny county. It's pretty incredible to see. Seems like AGH is always the battle zone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Well look at the graphic, there's literally 50 - 100 miles between starting at 10am and starting at 10pm. So it the discussion was written relative to the NWS office that's probably accurate. But aren’t watches/warnings/advisories based on a significant portion of a county getting hit with warning level impacts and not just the western/northern edges? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, TimB84 said: But aren’t watches/warnings/advisories based on a significant portion of a county getting hit with warning level impacts and not just the western/northern edges? Yeah I think if 50 percent of the area / population is likely to experience the criteria then it triggers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Remember, regular rain is the only p-type we get in May, and June, and July, and August, and September, and 97% of April and October, and a majority of March and November. Would it kill us to see something interesting like copious amounts of ice or sleet tomorrow? I'm sort of with you on this, there's 9 months of the year for plain rain essentially with some thunderstorms sprinkled in but otherwise not interesting weather. I track to see the extremes and the unusual partially, but totally get that ethical debate that gets brought up like with people rooing for a hurricane landfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 gfs isn't backing down from extreme amounts of fzr. Close to .9 this run. That front is gonna be the difference between shutting down the city for the night and basically a non event. Time for sleep, I'll be curious to see the trends at 6z but usually once we start to see bad trends this close it never reverts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 It is really tough to get a read on what is going on right now. It is already down to 33 at the airport with snow mixing in, but 41 at county airport. Is the cold air really going to stall for almost 24 hours in beaver county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 8 hours ago, KPITSnow said: No the majority of AGC had 7 or so inches. why do you guys blow up when I say this. If I think it was a bust let me. Because it's not true. The snow was substantial. You didn't measure everywhere and I think you're forgetting it was windy so totals may have been measured too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Because it's not true. The snow was substantial. You didn't measure everywhere and I think you're forgetting it was windy so totals may have been measured too low. https://www.weather.gov/cle/event_20220116_snowstorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 7 hours ago, TimB84 said: Remember, regular rain is the only p-type we get in May, and June, and July, and August, and September, and 97% of April and October, and a majority of March and November. Would it kill us to see something interesting like copious amounts of ice or sleet tomorrow? I mean it literally could. Airport is already reporting mix at 33. Ahead of schedule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: https://www.weather.gov/cle/event_20220116_snowstorm Thanks for the Cleveland info. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Anyways, since people want to continue to argue this with me and even disregard NWS maps, let’s just move on. Where do we stand right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 NWS has expected total snow to 2.6” and high end 4-6”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 9 hours ago, KPITSnow said: So happy the models teased us this afternoon only to pull back again at the last minute. Aaaaaand there it is that I called just hours earlier. I'm thinking we end up with ice and 2-3" of snow, but expectations aren't high for today for me personally. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, Gordo74 said: Aaaaaand there it is that I called just hours earlier. I'm thinking we end up with ice and 2-3" of snow, but expectations aren't high for today for me personally. Yeah, realistically this always looked like our ceiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 A bunch of reporting stations in the north hills and western half of the county already at 32-33 degrees. Not really sure what to make of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: A bunch of reporting stations in the north hills and western half of the county already at 32-33 degrees. Not really sure what to make of this. Yeah it definitely feels colder. To be honest the road temperature is what to really focus on atleast until the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 We're at 33 in Ross at the bottom of McKnight Rd. FWIW, WTAE has moved back their "alert hours" for today from 5pm to 3pm to 1pm to now starting mix here at 11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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