Ahoff Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 NWS has no Ice accumulation forescast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 NWS has no Ice accumulation forescast.This is what I was talking about earlier. Experience and intuition. However, ice would be a reflection of freezing rain, which we won’t see. Air too cold at 925. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 HRRR looks good so far. Multiple hours of 1-2" per hour rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 18z HRRR still looks good. 12” through 7am Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, Ahoff said: HRRR looks good so far. Ninja’d. Great minds think alike. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, TimB84 said: Ninja’d. Great minds think alike. Good to know as I am behind on the NWS site, and the dry slot gets VERY close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, KPITSnow said: Good to know as I am behind on the NWS site, and the dry slot gets VERY close. Well we do lose an inch or two off the 12z run, but still over a foot with 2” per hour rates between 3-6am Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, KPITSnow said: Good to know as I am behind on the NWS site, and the dry slot gets VERY close. Dry slot in westmoreland county on that 18z HRRR, but it does't seem to change the accumulations a whole lot. Once the atmosphere saturates, that deformation band is crushing us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Great look to the HRRR. Getting excited. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Dry slot in westmoreland county on that 18z HRRR, but it does't seem to change the accumulations a whole lot. Once the atmosphere saturates, that deformation band is crushing us. Gradient is a lot sharper across the metro. “Official” total would be a bit below a foot but many of us would see well over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, Ahoff said: Great look to the HRRR. Getting excited. Yeah, still some time to wobble. Could easily see some changes over the next 24. The good news is that the hi res models are coming in as they are. Heavy and consistent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 This is a fun one... This is the 6hr snowfall while we are under the deform band. 1"+/hr rates showing up on HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Is anyone as nervously excited that I am? My friends and family know me as the ‘weather guy’ asking me what I think is going to happen. I’m optimistic for a good snow but the 2019? WSW bust is still fresh in memory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Ecanem said: Is anyone as nervously excited that I am? My friends and family know me as the ‘weather guy’ asking me what I think is going to happen. I’m optimistic for a good snow but the 2019? WSW bust is still fresh in memory. Yes! This feels a bit different than 2019, not totally sure why, but it does. Doesn't mean we don't mixing, but doesn't seem as harsh as that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, Ecanem said: Is anyone as nervously excited that I am? My friends and family know me as the ‘weather guy’ asking me what I think is going to happen. I’m optimistic for a good snow but the 2019? WSW bust is still fresh in memory. Cautiously optimistic. That is how i would describe my mood right now. Nowcasting strategy -> Take a Xanax, grab some snow brews, and enjoy the uncertainty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ecanem said: Is anyone as nervously excited that I am? My friends and family know me as the ‘weather guy’ asking me what I think is going to happen. I’m optimistic for a good snow but the 2019? WSW bust is still fresh in memory. 3 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Yes! This feels a bit different than 2019, not totally sure why, but it does. Doesn't mean we don't mixing, but doesn't seem as harsh as that. Definitely a different set up than 2019. The ULL went right over Pittsburgh. And about 48 - 36 hr out, we started to see the westward move. The WTD showed itself early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Yes! This feels a bit different than 2019, not totally sure why, but it does. Doesn't mean we don't mixing, but doesn't seem as harsh as that. Way different with low track. And mixing here means potential sig ice, not rain like in 1.19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 NAM still out on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 NAM is still about 100 miles west of other guidance. Pretty crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 So we’re tossing the NAM, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, TimB84 said: So we’re tossing the NAM, right? No other guidance is close to it, however we are getting in range of it so it's something to probably pay attention to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, Rd9108 said: No other guidance is close to it, however we are getting in range of it so it's something to probably pay attention to. The HiRes NAM is also atrocious for us. That's more concerning than the NAM itself. Showing like an inch of snow at the onset, then ice, then dryslot. Have to see what the back end shows but the deform band is wanting to set up near columbus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: No other guidance is close to it, however we are getting in range of it so it's something to probably pay attention to. Even when in range, i HRRR is a superior model to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I’ll start to worry about the NAM at 0z. At that point, all the anecoctal, weather fan reasons to toss it become fewer. It will be an on hour run with the storm arriving within 24 hours. That’s usually where it’s considered good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 This is has to be a headache for NWS seeing all this guidance still all over the place this close to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: This is has to be a headache for NWS seeing all this guidance still all over the place this close to the event. I feel like a lot of the guidance is on board though. Everything except the NAM is east. NAM the only one that is stubbornly holding out on a westward solution. As i said earlier, Im not sure how much stock mets are putting in NAM. Here is the warning map for CLE NWS. Last 4-5 runs of the NAM have dropped more than a foot on CLE and points east. Not even a WWA for Cuyahoga County (where cleveland is). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I'm hoping the NAM is doing to Cleveland what it seems to to us a majority of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 All this talk makes me question. Hrrr vs NAM. And then I found this. and im still confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I'm hoping the NAM is doing to Cleveland what it seems to to us a majority of the time. If it was the other way around and NAM was the only thing that looked good we'd toss it. I'm not going to worry until other models show the same, or radar looks like the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Cropper starting to sell the ice forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now