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Southern Plains Winter 2021-2022


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18 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

If that happens, we would get cold for a while. I believe we get cold early instead of later on. So many factors involved. Anyone making forecasts this early are completely guessing. 

Yeah, it's pretty much guesswork anyway, especially when it comes to individual systems which can make or break a "good winter" as far as snowfall goes. Cold and dry is boring. A weaker polar vortex would increase the risk for arctic air intrusions, but that doesn't always mean they'd be directed on our side of the world. 

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I've been researching to see whether it is common for severely cold (Plains centered) Februaries to be followed by cold February. It's a mixed bag, but there are definitely more back to back severe cold years than I expected. This is from the draft of my outlook for winter.

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10 hours ago, Quixotic1 said:

I think it's a pretty good bet there will be high latitude blocking.  -QBO.  Coming out of a solar minimum.  IO looking good.  I'm hopeful.  Not sure I want it after the disaster with the power grid last winter.      

Its interesting we saw a -nao/ao most if not all last winter with a +qbo. Perhaps the SSW had something to do with it staying negative 

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46 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Its interesting we saw a -nao/ao most if not all last winter with a +qbo. Perhaps the SSW had something to do with it staying negative 

Generally when you have a SSWE a -NAO/-AO results from it. I definitely think we could see some anomalous cold work its way into N TX again this winter. Chances are it won't be as extreme but I think some record setting days are possible. I actually just wrote up a blog highlighting my thoughts: 

https://weatherchest.weebly.com/home/archives/09-2021

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I was looking more at the super-cold Plains centered Februaries today. You seem to have common look in November before those Februaries. Haven't really looked at the pre 1978 outbreaks.

+WPO November

+AO November

+NAO November

Didn't really see indication for commonality in other time frames. 1978, 1992, 1993, 2020 all had that signal though ahead of the nuclear cold dumps in February 1979, 1993, 1994, 2021.

Nov       WPO        AO         NAO

1978     +0.10     +2.47      +3.06

1992     +1.26     +0.72      +1.12

1993     +0.83    +1.00       +2.56

2020     +0.72     +2.09      +2.54

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Really not buying this La Nina as a big deal at the surface. It's getting late fast for it to catch up to last year. To be fair, last year was one of the ten coldest events in Oct-Nov before it weakened. But it was a 25.58C La Nina in Dec-Feb. At the end of the day, I consider 25.50-26.00C La Ninas in winter to be weak. 25.0-25.5 is moderate. <25.0 is strong.

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14 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Really not buying this La Nina as a big deal at the surface. It's getting late fast for it to catch up to last year. To be fair, last year was one of the ten coldest events in Oct-Nov before it weakened. But it was a 25.58C La Nina in Dec-Feb. At the end of the day, I consider 25.50-26.00C La Ninas in winter to be weak. 25.0-25.5 is moderate. <25.0 is strong.

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As you know raindance, we have seen weak niñas act like strong niñas and it was a blowtorch. 

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I'll link to my outlook here when I am done. 

I was checking overall snow patterns in the individual years yesterday. Each of the five analogs I am using had fluky deep-South snow events. The real crazy thing is they all are Northwest of the landfalling systems in the Gulf - typically Louisiana and Texas. My best guess is if there is a fluky deep-South snow event, the timing would be early December (12/1-12/10) or late January (1/21-1/31). We'll see. The snow map showing the fluky pattern will be in my outlook.

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Objective best matches for January-September highs and precipitation in Albuquerque heading into La Nina winters...rolled forward to February. Local blend of these six averages eight days 10F or colder, with two of the eight days 20F or colder. I'm warmer than this nationally, but it is fairly similar to what I have in my real analogs for February.

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  • 3 weeks later...

In general, La Ninas with ACE under 160 in the Atlantic tend to feature wetter conditions in the West in October, and overall for the cold season. It's nice to see Western October precipitation looking like 1974, 1984, 2016, rather than 1995, 2017, 2020, just as some examples off the top of my head. My main analogs were 1974 and 2017 for the winter - mostly because I doubt we'll be as wet as 1974, or as hot as 2017 in the West. As a blend though it seems pretty realistic given how the other factors are going, and I had a few other years in there to smooth out the strangeness of the blend.

Under 160:

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ACE over 160:

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Ryan Maue has put this concerning tweet (twit), mostly for Texas though
 

Quote

"The threat for climate-induced extreme winter storms again in Texas this winter remains very high & the state remains increasingly vulnerable to wobbling polar vortex "deep freeze". Double dip La Niña."

I do believe that this Double Dip La Nina has caused the Polar Vortex to become unstable & spill somewhere in the Northern Hemisphere, but where is the question.

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6 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Need to really keep an eye on Thanksgiving Week, the models are in general agreement (Now with the 18z GFS) with a chilly blast of cold air, the 12z Euro has a 9-12 inch snowstorm along I-44 from Chickasha to Missouri

I think the Pacific being in not so good shape for delivering cold air, it will be a while for our area. 

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