Radtechwxman Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Floydbuster said: I just find it hard to believe that a major metropolitan city of one million people wouldn't have a radar site in 2023. Just may not have the funding like we do from government for NOAA. I mean look how outdated Canada's radars are. Not to get off topic. Would love to see Otis on radar. Also hoping for some HH footage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: Just may not have the funding like we do from government for NOAA. I mean look how outdated Canada's radars are. Not to get off topic. Would love to see Otis on radar. Also hoping for some HH footage. Josh Morgerman said that he was caught off guard and wouldn't be able to chase Otis. But he's been silent for over 8 hrs on Twitter...and I wonder if he did a quickie and is headed down there. It's possible, he's one of the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Lightening in the eyewall is still firing off: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Acapulco does have a radar, but it is currently out of service and has been for sometime. They have had major upheaval in that city in the 21st Century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 I found this site for Mexico radars. Looks like the nearest radar is rather far inland from Acapulco. I think the Acapulco radar is not in service. https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/observando-el-tiempo/radares-meteorologicos-separador/visor-radares-v3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Update from NHC; Hurricane Otis Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1100 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OTIS STILL STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... Recent satellite data indicate that Otis continues to strengthen. The maximum sustained winds are now estimated to be near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts. Otis is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Otis is forecast to remain a category 5 hurricane through landfall overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 000 WTPZ63 KNHC 250400 TCUEP3 Hurricane Otis Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1100 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OTIS STILL STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... Recent satellite data indicate that Otis continues to strengthen. The maximum sustained winds are now estimated to be near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts. Otis is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Otis is forecast to remain a category 5 hurricane through landfall overnight. SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3 99.7W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 25, 2023 Author Share Posted October 25, 2023 Helpful post regarding surge prone areas via Jeff Masters: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Just now, Windspeed said: Helpful post regarding surge prone areas via Jeff Masters: Also can’t forget flooding as the rain is squeezed out by the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 25, 2023 Author Share Posted October 25, 2023 Also can’t forget flooding as the rain is squeezed out by the higher elevations.Yes, generally, the surge isn't going to be the most dangerous aspect of Otis, despite it being a Cat 5. It has a small core. Winds will be devastating within the eyewall, especially for elevated structures on sloped terrain. And, of course, mudslides, which still remain the greatest threat to life regardless of catastrophic wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 13 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: Also can’t forget flooding as the rain is squeezed out by the higher elevations. Yes, generally, the surge isn't going to be the most dangerous aspect of Otis, despite it being a Cat 5. It has a small core. Winds will be devastating within the eyewall, especially for elevated structures on sloped terrain. And, of course, mudslides, which still remain the greatest threat to life regardless of catastrophic wind. It has a small core going over a super populated area and it's going to meander there for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 I was hoping Josh would be there. Just to see footage from this. Going to be unreal. If anyone could pull it off, it would be him. Thanks everyone for looking into the radar situation. Too bad we have nothing to look at from that perspective but man this satellite imagery is wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: I was hoping Josh would be there. Just to see footage from this. Going to be unreal. If anyone could pull it off, it would be him. Thanks everyone for looking into the radar situation. Too bad we have nothing to look at from that perspective but man this satellite imagery is wow. Sadly, he was caught too off guard and won't be chasing Otis. Damn shame, too. I can't imagine, but like I told him on Twitter, it's Mother Nature's way of keeping him humble. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 This could be the worst all time hit for western Mexico. Cannot imagine a more dire situation, especially given folks had 0 time to prepare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: This could be the worst all time hit for western Mexico. Cannot imagine a more dire situation, especially given folks had 0 time to prepare And densely populated…crazy how fast this all went haywire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 25, 2023 Author Share Posted October 25, 2023 It has a small core going over a super populated area and it's going to meander there for a bitI'm by no means downplaying that. Aside from a limited surge, the situation is dire. It's just a person has good odds, even avoiding injury, sheltering in a solid structure. If a slope gives way into the same described structure. Well, it's not good either way, but to the point, it's far more difficult to survive the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 19 minutes ago, user13 said: It has a small core going over a super populated area and it's going to meander there for a bit I'm by no means downplaying that. Aside from a limited surge, the situation is dire. It's just a person has good odds, even avoiding injury, sheltering in a solid structure. If a slope gives way into the same described structure. Well, it's not good either way, but to the point, it's far more difficult to survive the latter. I don't even know if the surge is going to be that limited that bay is looking like a prime catcher's mitt for this path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 I’m thinking of some of the Central American Atlantic storms that have caused major mudslides with only a Cat 1 or Cat 2. The amount of rain this will drop is going to be bad. I’m not downplaying the wind, but the wind is often not the killer, it’s the flooding, mudslides, and storm surge (the later this storm has less risk with in part due to the short time between strengthening and landfall) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Good grief! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 https://webcamsdemexico.com/webcam/playa-de-acapulco/ https://webcamsdemexico.com/webcam/bahia-de-acapulco/ Couple of webcams overlooking the bay. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 New update: 000 WTPZ63 KNHC 250459 TCUEP3 Hurricane Otis Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1200 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 ...EYEWALL OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OTIS MOVING ASHORE NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO... ...12 AM POSITION UPDATE... Satellite imagery indicates that the eyewall of potentially catastrophic Hurricane Otis is moving ashore the southern coast of Mexico near Acapulco. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts. Otis is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Otis is forecast to remain a category 5 hurricane through landfall within the next few hours. SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5 99.7W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 25, 2023 Author Share Posted October 25, 2023 I don't even know if the surge is going to be that limited that bay is looking like a prime catcher's mitt for this pathPerhaps for something right on the immediate waterfront in the bay due to wave action on top of some surge. But the water is rather deep for fetch versus abrupt elevation change. Everything away from the immediate waterfront is above 6 ft in much of Acapulco. Nobody should be on the harbour walls unless they're being careless. Now that being said, the flat estuaries around the airport and lagoons both east and west of Acapulco would be far more susceptible to surge. But again, this is a very small hurricane, despite its intensity. Wind and run-off are my greatest concerns for the greater populace and Otis' core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Notable increase in noise on the first resort webcam in the last 10m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 22 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Notable increase in noise on the first resort webcam in the last 10m. Cameras getting knocked off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Yeah, getting knocked offline one by one here. Dreams resort still going strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Everyone missed this. No model support for this, no recon scheduled for landfalls, no reliable radar sites, no storm chasers. This is 2023, not 1923. I think this hurricane will remind all of us meteorological aficionados to remain humble. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Seeing power flashes occasionally on https://webcamsdemexico.com/webcam/acapulco-panoramica/ Dreams resort still up: Bahía de Acapulco en vivo, Acapulco - Webcams de México (webcamsdemexico.com) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Absolutely wild watching power flashes mixed with eyewall lightning as the core approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Just now, csnavywx said: Absolutely wild watching power flashes mixed with eyewall lightning as the core approaches. Unreal sight for sure…packing a wallop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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