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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2021 OBS Thread


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Finished up with a total of 1.68" of rain for Tuesday (0.07" round 1, 0.23" round 2, and 1.38" round 3).  The high was 91.

Currently mostly cloudy, 71 and misty, with dp 71, producing the steamy windows.  I think that rainfall I had here will preclude getting to the mid-90s here today, and/or tomorrow, although if there is no more rain here until the weekend, then Friday might get there and perhaps even reach the upper 90s. But I suppose that will depend on how strong the heat core is (i.e., if there had been an antecedent dry period, then we might have had a chance for triple digits this week, which we haven't had here in awhile).

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Will anyone hit 100F tomorrow or Friday? NWS forecasting highs of 97-98F for most of the area. GFS and RGEM has PHL hitting 100F on Friday. Today and Thursday are going to feel the hottest though with dew points in the low 70's. The dews actually drop a bit on Friday though only to the mid-upper 60's despite temps remaining in the upper 90's. In fact, the dews dropping on Friday makes me think that Fri may be our best shot at 100F. Heat Index is going to be in the 105F-110F range today and tomorrow at least. Time to hibernate into the AC. 

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None of the models had that storm complex developing/strengthening entering western PA. Will be interesting to watch this afternoon if it holds together. It's moving at a pretty good pace, if it holds together maybe entering the region around 5-7 pm this evening. Decent instability across the state too although shear is pretty much non existent. Something to watch.

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   Mesoscale Discussion 1481
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0103 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 111803Z - 111930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat is increasing across portions of
   southern Pennsylvania.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has had intermittently stronger
   intensity at times as it has moved from northern Ohio into western
   Pennsylvania. However, over the past 30 minutes, it appears storm
   activity on the leading edge has started to realize the increasing
   surface based instability ahead of this line of storms as the line
   has filled in and reflectivity has become more intense. There is a
   well established cold pool associated with this activity with
   temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70 in its wake. Given this
   well-established cold pool, combined with MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg,
   DCAPE around 1000 J/kg, and effective shear around 25 knots per SPC
   mesoanalysis, downstream persistence/potential strengthening is
   expected. 

   In addition, thunderstorm activity is anticipated ahead of this
   line. While this activity is not expected to be overly organized, a
   favorable thermodynamic environment will support strong
   updraft/downdraft pairs and the potential for waterloaded downdrafts
   capable of isolated damaging wind gusts. 

   Therefore, given these factors, a severe thunderstorm watch may be
   needed across this region.
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14 minutes ago, The Iceman said:
   Mesoscale Discussion 1481
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0103 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 111803Z - 111930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat is increasing across portions of
   southern Pennsylvania.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has had intermittently stronger
   intensity at times as it has moved from northern Ohio into western
   Pennsylvania. However, over the past 30 minutes, it appears storm
   activity on the leading edge has started to realize the increasing
   surface based instability ahead of this line of storms as the line
   has filled in and reflectivity has become more intense. There is a
   well established cold pool associated with this activity with
   temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70 in its wake. Given this
   well-established cold pool, combined with MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg,
   DCAPE around 1000 J/kg, and effective shear around 25 knots per SPC
   mesoanalysis, downstream persistence/potential strengthening is
   expected. 

   In addition, thunderstorm activity is anticipated ahead of this
   line. While this activity is not expected to be overly organized, a
   favorable thermodynamic environment will support strong
   updraft/downdraft pairs and the potential for waterloaded downdrafts
   capable of isolated damaging wind gusts. 

   Therefore, given these factors, a severe thunderstorm watch may be
   needed across this region.

IOW -

:D

Currently partly sunny and sitting at 92 with a disgusting dp of 79.  Had it briefly hit 93 around 2:30 pm (so far) though.

Just stepped out to experience the unbreathable sauna and ran back in. :yikes:

ETA - and here is is from SPC -

Quote

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 427
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2021

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 427 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

PAC001-009-011-013-017-025-027-029-037-041-043-045-055-057-061-
067-071-075-077-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-107-109-111-119-
133-120100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0427.210811T1900Z-210812T0100Z/

PA
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                BEDFORD             BERKS
BLAIR                BUCKS               CARBON
CENTRE               CHESTER             COLUMBIA
CUMBERLAND           DAUPHIN             DELAWARE
FRANKLIN             FULTON              HUNTINGDON
JUNIATA              LANCASTER           LEBANON
LEHIGH               MIFFLIN             MONROE
MONTGOMERY           MONTOUR             NORTHAMPTON
NORTHUMBERLAND       PERRY               PHILADELPHIA
SCHUYLKILL           SNYDER              SOMERSET
UNION                YORK
$$
Quote

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 427
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2021

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 427 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NJC007-011-015-019-021-033-041-120100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0427.210811T1900Z-210812T0100Z/

NJ
.    NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CAMDEN               CUMBERLAND          GLOUCESTER
HUNTERDON            MERCER              SALEM
WARREN
$$
Quote

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 427
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2021

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 427 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

DEC001-003-120100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0427.210811T1900Z-210812T0100Z/

DE
.    DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

KENT                 NEW CASTLE
$$

 

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8 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

SPC just put up a couple Watches for the area.

 

Pretty weird how they left Burlington county out of the watch. Like north and south of them in NJ both have a watch but they don't. Timing wise, areas to the N and W have a better shot of seeing severe than 95 area imo. Doesn't look like the main line will get here until 7 or 8 and by then instability will begin to wane. I'll be pretty surprised if it holds together for most of the area in 95. Chester/Berks/Lehigh looks to have the best shot.

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11 minutes ago, RedSky said:

There is like no point in consulting computer models anymore game over.

 

Even the HRRR has been useless today and it's initialized with the latest radar each hour. All the models were totally lost today with the convection. 

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15 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Pretty weird how they left Burlington county out of the watch. Like north and south of them in NJ both have a watch but they don't. Timing wise, areas to the N and W have a better shot of seeing severe than 95 area imo. Doesn't look like the main line will get here until 7 or 8 and by then instability will begin to wane. I'll be pretty surprised if it holds together for most of the area in 95. Chester/Berks/Lehigh looks to have the best shot.

Could be they are thinking it will be running more to the south (where it is really juicy). You see that in Sterling's Watch area -

I don't think SPC splits counties with parallelograms so they just left Burlington out, maybe thinking any convection from the north of there would send outflow down through there (NY doesn't have any T-storm Watches up at this time).  It still obviously allows for short-fused Warnings as the storms develop (and/or redevelop) over areas not in a Watch area.

I noticed yesterday that there was back-building and pop-ups in the middle of the incoming line cluster from the west, so I would definitely expect short-fused alerts.

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

That is significant activity in the center part of the state. Only 30% chance is looking too low this evening, here we go again. 

Once again I need a good idea if it will shower or not ay carumba

 

Move it inside, the dewpoint is too high for a cookout, lol.

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17 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said:

Absolutely POURING down rain right now. The cul-de-sac is now a lake. 

Am guessing you are under this conflagration. :yikes:

It has sortof hazed and clouded over here so the temp is down to 88 but dp is still high at 77.  93 pretty much ended up being my high given that with the clouds, it's done going up.

radar5-08112021.png

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