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Winter 2021-2022


40/70 Benchmark
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Ha...  ya know... doing the projection math on this...

wouldn't wanna live around here in that vision.   I mean, imagine rain on winter and snow being comparatively rare, as the predominating expectation? 

That's a lot of rain... in cold air.  And by cold... 38 rain                              all.                                   winter.                                  long.

Then, ...wait for it, BD seasons still gets to claim it's real-estate.   F - that.   

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah snowfall retention and days of pond ice probably are decreasing over a long term (The 70s were a very cold decade though). I bet off the top of my head those warmer years in the 30s and 40s probably had lower pond ice days and retention...but agree the long term trend is there. To Ray's point, we haven't seen the scale tip (and won't for awhile) to where snowfall starts being significantly impacted by GW. Maybe the more marginal ones are uglier....but in the grand scheme of things...most of New England outside of the coast typically has a cold antecedent airmass prior to snowfall that is well below 32F. 

Yeah if we're going by pond skating on Thanksgiving, you really cannot have a much colder period than the 1960s/1970s in the past 100 years.

 

image.png.82da09badc184b3fd912f95b5b1d01c5.png

That said, we had pretty much full-on frozen ponds at the end of both November 2018 and 2019.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah if we're going by pond skating on Thanksgiving, you really cannot have a much colder period than the 1960s/1970s in the past 100 years.

 

image.png.82da09badc184b3fd912f95b5b1d01c5.png

That said, we had pretty much full-on frozen ponds at the end of both November 2018 and 2019.

Thanksgiving turkies drowning everywhere in the 1950s.....

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57 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Given that the vast majority of warming, at least locally, is being observed with respect to nighttime lows, I would venture to guess that any decrease in snow cover days is more at the bookends of the season...in December and March. I would actually strongly favor December given seasonal lag and increased propensity for blocking patterns during the spring.

In short, I would guess December is seeing the lion's share of a decease in snowcover days (sorry rev) over the course of the past 30+ years.

December seems a bit more boom/bust than previously. I checked Reading coop, the # of days with snow cover has been slowly declining in December, but mixed in are huge years....including the most days with snow cover in the record for Reading which was 2007 (29 days with snow cover).

 

Ironically, March has a positive trend in snow cover days. We've been on a binge for March the last decade though (or reaping the benefits of lasting snow cover from monster Februarys like 2015 even if March is meh)

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

December seems a bit more boom/bust than previously. I checked Reading coop, the # of days with snow cover has been slowly declining in December, but mixed in are huge years....including the most days with snow cover in the record for Reading which was 2007 (29 days with snow cover).

 

Ironically, March has a positive trend in snow cover days. We've been on a binge for March the last decade though (or reaping the benefits of lasting snow cover from monster Februarys like 2015 even if March is meh)

Nice, yea...just as I had thought.

Last March was a nice catalyst for regression lol

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanksgiving turkies drowning everywhere in the 1950s.....

Yeah the late 1940s to mid 1950s were sneaky warm in New England for all months...for some stations in New England, 1949 is still the warmest year on record.

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The other aspect with snow in December is that is has a huge diabatic upside regardless of era... ( assuming 'warm snow' or 'cold snow' )

It's got some last lingering availability by proximity to a still cooling ...not yet nadir Gulf of Mexico/g-string out there. 

I've often contended that 1992 may have been sort of "super charged" in some ways - although it was a deep vortex either way one cuts it.  But, having the two factors overlap...  I mean, I think it was Brockton got within reach of a half foot of rain ...before 8::1 fell to 12" of blue snow, once the mix came thru late in the event down there.  I know at UML were nearing 3" of liquid...then the flash, then 17" on top... That snow up there was blue with powder on the top half. 

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11 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I would like to see have seen and included years after 07 but this is interesting.

Change in snowfall 1930-2007:

image.thumb.png.dabd5cef3d8d6299a8270121f4c9b1c5.png

Looks to back up what Will was saying...the more marginal areas, like Virginia, lower plains and lower terrain of PNW have decreased, while parts of NE have actually increased.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks to back up what Will was saying...the more marginal areas, like Virginia, lower plains and lower terrain of PNW have decreased, while parts of NE have actually increased.

Yeah and I bet those trends would be even sharper if that map included the 2010s. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and I bet those trends would be even sharper if that map included the 2010s. 

Seems as though the impact of global warming on snowfall is mimicking the trend in the distribution of wealth over the past 50 years in that there is in ever greater distinction between the "haves" and "have nots".

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Our seasonal guy was also seeing the mention of a weaker than normal vortex. While one as weak as last year is not expected, they do sometimes cluster or have a second "weak" year after the first stronger one. IOW, an aggregate -AO would not be a surprise even in a Nina. That would be great considering some evidence of strong Indonesia convection getting going and forecasted to get going. 

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Increase in precip made up for the increase in avg temps. 

Eventually the increasing avg temps will win out though.

Yea, many years after the daily max temps begin to rise more precipitously....as of now, its mainly mins, which does not reduce snowfall at this latitude. It will slow the icing of ponds, sure.

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33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Our seasonal guy was also seeing the mention of a weaker than normal vortex. While one as weak as last year is not expected, they do sometimes cluster or have a second "weak" year after the first stronger one. IOW, an aggregate -AO would not be a surprise even in a Nina. That would be great considering some evidence of strong Indonesia convection getting going and forecasted to get going

I suspect that was the case in 1995-1996? I need to research the Indonesia dipole...don't really know much about that. Could have a STJ in play more typical of el nino, which is what we had in 1996.

2000-2001 was just a very active N stream.

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32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, many years after the daily max temps begin to rise more precipitously....as of now, its mainly mins, which does not reduce snowfall at this latitude. It will slow the icing of ponds, sure.

How many decades do you think we have to get decent snows. What's our tipping point?

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Our seasonal guy was also seeing the mention of a weaker than normal vortex. While one as weak as last year is not expected, they do sometimes cluster or have a second "weak" year after the first stronger one. IOW, an aggregate -AO would not be a surprise even in a Nina. That would be great considering some evidence of strong Indonesia convection getting going and forecasted to get going. 

La Nina with blocking is an extremely strong snow signal in New England.

Almost all of our crappy La Ninas had a big +AO/NAO. Just go right down the list:

1. 2011-2012

2. 1999-2000

3. 1998-1999

4. 1988-1989

5. 1984-1985

6. 1973-1974

 

Now there were years like 2005-2006 which had some blocking but were pretty crappy in NNE....though SNE was closer to average in snowfall (with a narrow area above avg in CT). But overall, arctic blocking + La Nina is a very good snow signal.

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Yeeeah ...I know.

my thing is 'tipping point' has a built in aspect to its definition that it accelerates all at once.  It's probably not a metaphor to say, the system in observance resists change ...then, the motivation exceeds the ability to stasis, a lurching aspect takes place.  Then the new base-line is above(below) the previous. Provided the new regime isn't too different, the larger SD events may still pop into the previous for a visit.   Like if the snow line moves N(S) of Philly ( say ...) doesn't mean it won't snow there. Just that there is/was a bigger leap into a new lower(higher) probability there.

We could have/be in a resistance thing and not even know it, already.   

I'm just throwin' it out there. I'm not saying one way or the other.  I think we pretty much beat this horse already .. but, my personal thinking is that I don't feel comfortable saying a human life span.   We should also note that we are exceeding the climate impact models -

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

La Nina with blocking is an extremely strong snow signal in New England.

Almost all of our crappy La Ninas had a big +AO/NAO. Just go right down the list:

1. 2011-2012

2. 1999-2000

3. 1998-1999

4. 1988-1989

5. 1984-1985

6. 1973-1974

 

Now there were years like 2005-2006 which had some blocking but were pretty crappy in NNE....though SNE was closer to average in snowfall (with a narrow area above avg in CT). But overall, arctic blocking + La Nina is a very good snow signal.

2005-2006 was mitigated somewhat by the obscene Pac jet.

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

La Nina with blocking is an extremely strong snow signal in New England.

Almost all of our crappy La Ninas had a big +AO/NAO. Just go right down the list:

1. 2011-2012

2. 1999-2000

3. 1998-1999

4. 1988-1989

5. 1984-1985

6. 1973-1974

 

Now there were years like 2005-2006 which had some blocking but were pretty crappy in NNE....though SNE was closer to average in snowfall (with a narrow area above avg in CT). But overall, arctic blocking + La Nina is a very good snow signal.

Yeah I think he was hesitant on directly forecasting it, but just mentioned that some signals were there and the climate models (like euro seasonal) were showing it. Lets hope for some of that to come true. 

 

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The reason that I think blocking during la nina is a stronger signal for snow in NE, than in an el nino is bc there isn't much that can go wrong with a n stream dominant storm track coupled with blocking. You are just about locked into favorable tracks for the vast majority of storms. During el nino, you and get 2010ed, or 1979ed.

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