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wxeyeNH

NNE Warm Season Thread 2021

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13 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Interesting that the guy is 80. Dont want to disparage the elderly, but could explain some of the discrepancies in reporting. The Woodford observer down here in SVT has had some questionable obs, but found out she was like 88 yrs old or something, so kind of makes sense.

Farmington co-op observer began in 1966 when he was in his early 30s.  Not sure if he's still on the job though the site hasn't changed.  In July 2019 the 2nd half was missing initially but filled in later.  Maybe a changing of the guard or perhaps a health issue requiring someone else to do 2 weeks of obs but who didn't know the protocol for reporting.

76 yesterday.  Other than 2012, this was the earliest to reach u70s.  Walked the snomo trail - still some under-the-duff ice - and saw about a dozen new blowdowns from the gales of 3/29, including 4 across the trail.  Also picked up 2 dog ticks, 1st of the season for me.  Another discovery, a few days earlier, was that the lightning strike that shattered a fir tree on our woodlot also hit 40 yards away, across the road on our neighbor.  Both a big WP (25" by 80') and a medium-size hemlock had long vertical furrows 1-2" wide in the bark, showing a bit of the wood underneath.  Might explain the near-instantaneous double bangs, as those trees are 40-50' farther from our house - only about 1/25 second difference but audible.

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7 hours ago, PhineasC said:

An inch of uplsope will cover that right up. 

The ol' cosmetic inch is coming at some point.

Day 4 of June-like weather.  Snowpack is the lowest since 1954 at the Mansfield stake.  Still, it is incredibly fun to ski and get creative on the way down.  Everyone out there was having a fantastic time, the novelty of this has led to a great vibe on the hill.

Even some woods routes in play still... but needs a steep NE facing slope.

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What the groomers have done is incredible.  Putting the hill back together each night.  These tractors spend the night snow farming so we can keep riding lifts.  $1.5+ million in assets with talented operators to keep the operation afloat.

171655372_10104508487222330_466623596931

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On 4/10/2021 at 10:06 PM, powderfreak said:

Near record low snow depth since 1954.  This is an unbiased observation site with a long period of record.  Always noteworthy to be on the edges of the graph, whether low or high.  The depth could be 140+ right now on the high end.

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I think in general you’d see a Mansfield snowpack plot like that and think it must have been a pretty poor ski season, not a halfway decent one, but it’s hard to get all those nuances out of just the snow depth unless there are some obvious massive meltdowns.  All it took for a bit of perspective though was to superimpose it over the 2015-2016 snowpack plot – that plot is substantially lower than the current one for almost the entirety of the season except for the spring melt off happening now.

The skiing the past few days has been great, and I guess we sort of lose perspective in how we can often be battling marginal temperatures and cloud cover to even get these nice warm spring days in April.  We’ll certainly take them when we can get them.

I headed up to Bolton on Friday afternoon for some turns because the weather was so nice.  I wanted to take a run on Hard Luck since I knew the snow there was fairly deep and probably just about continuous to make for a nice steep run.  It’s funny, but Spillway, which is a usual the big spring holdout with snow in terms of steep terrain on the main mountain, isn’t really an option at this point.  Mother Nature covered it up enough on her own this season that I guess the resort decided to save the money and skip the snowmaking there.  Hard Luck did look good, but I was a little too tight on time to fit it in my tour, so I ended up skiing some moderate terrain, but it made for a nice run.

On Saturday I headed to Stowe to go for a tour on Spruce Peak, and again the weather was simply sunny and fabulous.  I hadn’t been to the resort in a while since we didn’t have our school’s ski program this season due to COVID-19, so I poked around the Spruce Peak Village for a bit first.  There’s a huge new building going up where the ski patrol building was at the base of the Sunny Spruce Quad, so that’s a big addition.  I’m not sure what’s going to be going in there, or if it’s more lodging?  As usual, the crowd of folks earning turns was in the MMSC lot, and I found about a dozen cars or so there and ran into a friend of the family who was there skiing with some of her friends.  You almost can’t help but run into someone you know on these days.  All I can say is that Main Street delivered what were unquestionably the best turns of the weekend, and probably the best corn snow I’ve skied the entire spring season so far.  I’m not sure what it is about Main Street, but year after year after year, it just seems to deliver superior corn snow.  Maybe it’s because it faces south and really starts its corn snow cycling early, or maybe it’s because they blow that massive amount of dense snow for the racers, or maybe it’s because it gets so much less traffic than the trails on Mansfield.  Maybe it’s a combination of all these factors, but it just delivered ridiculously smooth, perfect peel-away corn snow turns when I was there.  The snow seems pretty deep, and it’s definitely worth more trips while that snow is around.

On Sunday I headed back to Bolton to catch that run on Hard Luck that I’d missed on Friday.  Temperatures were definitely a bit cooler than Saturday, with more clouds around, but it was still plenty warm to keep the snow soft.  Hard Luck is nearly continuous except for a small area near the top, but from there on down it has solid coverage that runs right into Sherman’s.  There’s still top-to-bottom coverage on the main mountain via the usual Sherman’s route to Beech Seal, but it’s getting close to a gap near the middle of Beech Seal.  That won’t be continuous through next weekend with the reasonably warm temperatures in the forecast though.

Some pictures from this weekend’s time out there on the snow:

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7 hours ago, powderfreak said:

RT 108 through Smugglers Notch just opened per VTRANS.  I think that's easily the earliest I've ever seen the Notch open.

9 days ago, my son and I walked to the Cambridge/Stowe town line...maybe 8/10ths of a mile in from the gate. There wasn't much snow on the road then, surprised it wasn't open sooner.

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7 minutes ago, Angus said:

 

9 days ago, my son and I walked to the Cambridge/Stowe town line...maybe 8/10ths of a mile in from the gate. There wasn't much snow on the road then, surprised it wasn't open sooner.

Yeah it did seem to take a few extra days but it usually does with their warm season clean up of debris, branches, trees.  Though the snow can be hard to melt up in those drifts or shaded pockets.

The deepest snow is usually up in the switchbacks towards the top and then once over the crest (traveling from the Stowe side) and starting down in Jeffersonville, the road bends right and across a steep north facing slope.  Wind drifting up in the switchbacks and that north facing section can be really hard to melt.  Hard to melt though is a relative term this season though.

This was 13 days ago a bit further up from the Stowe/Cambridge town line sign. The snowiest stretch is uphill of here in the real rockfall zone and then when the road goes to the right around the terrain (barely see the hillside in this photo on the right side) it's shadowed almost all day.

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On 4/12/2021 at 8:33 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Nah, 2015-2016 was the big stinker up there. This year was a lot better than that year. This year just had an absurdly weak end to the year but at least most of the mid-winter months were pretty decent for skiers. 

 

On 4/10/2021 at 10:06 PM, powderfreak said:

Near record low snow depth since 1954.  This is an unbiased observation site with a long period of record.  Always noteworthy to be on the edges of the graph, whether low or high.  The depth could be 140+ right now on the high end.

 

On 4/12/2021 at 8:27 PM, J.Spin said:

I think in general you’d see a Mansfield snowpack plot like that and think it must have been a pretty poor ski season, not a halfway decent one, but it’s hard to get all those nuances out of just the snow depth unless there are some obvious massive meltdowns.  All it took for a bit of perspective though was to superimpose it over the 2015-2016 snowpack plot – that plot is substantially lower than the current one for almost the entirety of the season except for the spring melt off happening now.

I’ve seen others like Will also mentioning the 2015-2016 season, and here’s the comparison I mentioned in my post above.  While the 2015-2016 snowpack was higher at this point in the spring, it’s incredible how low it remained for such an extended period – to think of the Mansfield snowpack never reaching even 40” during the winter season is just amazing.  This season has been a low snowpack one, but the fact that the depth at the stake still reached almost 60” and was roughly double the 2015-2016 snowpack at points near the heart of the ski season sort of puts it in perspective.

14APR21A.jpg

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1 minute ago, J.Spin said:

 

 

I’ve seen others like Will also mentioning the 2015-2016 season, and here’s the comparison I mentioned in my post above.  While the 2015-2016 snowpack was higher at this point in the spring, it’s incredible how low it remained for such an extended period – to think of the Mansfield snowpack never reaching even 40” during the winter season is just amazing.  This season has been a low snowpack one, but the fact that the depth at the stake still reached almost 60” and was roughly double the 2015-2016 snowpack at points near the heart of the ski season sort of puts it in perspective.

14APR21A.jpg

Yeah for sure but this is absolutely incredible melt this spring.  That’s still a worse season but this is nuts.

2018-19 had 100+ more inches on the ground right now.  That’s also a wild variation.  This April is sort of like December 2015 in terms of “well, never thought I’d see that” type aspects.

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I’ve posted the latest BTV NWS maps below for the storm that is expected to affect the area toward the end of the week.  Winter Storm Watches extend up from SVT into eastern Addison County.  For the projected accumulations map they’ve got 8-12” accumulations along the spine up into Lamoille County, with a small area of 12-18” shading east of Rutland in what is probably the Killington area.  Down at the elevation of our site, there’s not too much accumulation expected, with the point forecast here suggesting up to an inch of accumulation.

14APR21B.jpg

14APR21C.jpg

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Any other year this would feel pretty normal. This year it feels like a punch in the gut. Would have been perfectly happy with a continuation of the current weather. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

The historical record in Randolph has some solid late-season storms. I just wish Feb and March hadn’t been totally devoid of meaningful synoptic snow. 

Big elevation storms are not uncommon in NNE.  This is the climo we bank on. It feels cheap, stat padder, and late in the season, but it does all fit into the mountain climatology.  Seasonal totals are just that... October 1 to June 1.  Doesn't matter when it falls to the seasonal total.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Big elevation storms are not uncommon in NNE.  This is the climo we bank on. It feels cheap, stat padder, and late in the season, but it does all fit into the mountain climatology.  Seasonal totals are just that... October 1 to June 1.  Doesn't matter when it falls to the seasonal total.

This would be awesome if the mountains had their usual depth right now. It would create a brief late-season amazing period. 

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An easterly flow and Bretton Woods usually gets shadowed...this might be North Conways biggest storm though, if they have enough elevation

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1 hour ago, #NoPoles said:

An easterly flow and Bretton Woods usually gets shadowed...this might be North Conways biggest storm though, if they have enough elevation

We'll see. Look like the mesos are headed SE. SNE gang is getting hyped. I have seen this storyline many times already this winter.

Before anyone starts, yes I know climo says NNH gets nailed and it's a lock for 12+. OK, let it snow. :) 

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Quick heavy shower last night woke me up and gave me .25" within 10 minutes.  

Boy this is a tough forecast to figure out for my hood.  How much shadowing from Whites to the northeast and the temperature is so marginal at surface.  I think I'm good for 5-8" at my elevation but could bust either way.

Grass has really greened up and forsythia is out.  Everything is 2 weeks ahead

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9 hours ago, PhineasC said:

We'll see. Look like the mesos are headed SE. SNE gang is getting hyped. I have seen this storyline many times already this winter.

Before anyone starts, yes I know climo says NNH gets nailed and it's a lock for 12+. OK, let it snow. :) 

P&C has our town with 1-3, Farmington 6 miles to the west 2-5.  These very marginal situations rarely do much here - might be non-accumulating slushy things here, an inch or 2 at the Farmington co-op and 5-8" for the Temple cocorahs (10 miles to my west) at 1220'.  That's the spot that got 26" in late Feb 2010 while the co-op and I had around 10" at ~400'.

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Just now, tamarack said:

P&C has our town with 1-3, Farmington 6 miles to the west 2-5.  These very marginal situations rarely do much here - might be non-accumulating slushy things here, an inch or 2 at the Farmington co-op and 5-8" for the Temple cocorahs (10 miles to my west) at 1220'.  That's the spot that got 26" in late Feb 2010 while the co-op and I had around 10" at ~400'.

I kinda stopped paying attention after yesterday afternoon when it was clear the models were doing their usual shuffle SE and the SNE gang started to get hyped up. Usually the kiss of death for MBY.

NWS has 4-10 here now. We'll see. It'll be fun to watch it play out.

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26 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I kinda stopped paying attention after yesterday afternoon when it was clear the models were doing their usual shuffle SE and the SNE gang started to get hyped up. Usually the kiss of death for MBY.

NWS has 4-10 here now. We'll see. It'll be fun to watch it play out.

Always easy to know when the SE ticks happen as the pages pile up quickly.  Can log off for 20 mins and come back with 5 new pages, you know that doesn't mean it trended better for most in the NNE forum...ha.

Obviously NW ticks happen too, recency bias certainly in play though.

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30 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Always easy to know when the SE ticks happen as the pages pile up quickly.  Can log off for 20 mins and come back with 5 new pages, you know that doesn't mean it trended better for most in the NNE forum...ha.

Obviously NW ticks happen too, recency bias certainly in play though.

It’s still a good setup for Randolph with a low stalled out throwing moisture back on east winds. There seems to be a tendency for the low to bomb further SE and then hook wide right, however. Was the pattern all winter. 

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Will be interesting to see how this plays out. The heavy wet snowstorm in October knocked out power here. Def was a Birch Bender. We don't have leaves yet but the poplars put out their Catkins and the rest of the trees the buds are swelling...just a tad more surface area for snow to stick to...

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Just now, #NoPoles said:

Will be interesting to see how this plays out. The heavy wet snowstorm in October knocked out power here. Def was a Birch Bender. We don't have leaves yet but the poplars put out their Calkins and the rest of the trees the buds are swelling...just a tad more surface area for snow to stick to...

Willows are greened up a bit here, male aspen catkins approaching full length, red maple in blossom.  GYX put us under a warning because their threshold for siggy tree damage in wet sticky snow is 4", well below WSW criteria (as noted in their morning AFD).  Been a tough winter for my woodlot - the 6" of 4:1 mush on 12/5-6 took down a few trees and bent some others and the winds on 3/29 felled 15-20 (and still counting - have not seen all the lot yet.)  Then there's the tall fir shattered by lightning on 3/26.  I like snow but I like trees, too.

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I like that tiny pencil dot of 18-24" at Stratton Summit..ha.

I dont see 6" happening in Manchester, not in town at 700'.  It would have to be absolutely nuking to get temps to cool down for that accumulation on the valley floor.  Thinking maybe 3-5" IMBY, maybe 1-2" in town?

StormTotalSnow.png

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