Upstate/Eastern New York

[BuffaloWeather]

GFS going to be pretty far SE with a 1 in 20-25 year airmass for this time of year

[BuffaloWeather]

Huge hit for all, temp around 30 for entire area

[BuffaloWeather]

That gets me to 100

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

GFS going too far east now... This keeps up It’s gonna be out to sea by tomorrow’s run...

 

[BuffaloWeather]

GFS gets everyone involved with a WSW criteria snowfall. The temps are cold enough where I don't think this will be just a higher elevation snowfall.

[BuffaloWeather]

-20 to -25 departures

[BuffaloWeather]

 

[BuffaloWeather]

GEM with a big hit too.

[BuffaloWeather]

The storm starts at 1-2 AM weds across far WNY and goes until about 2 pm. So technically a little over 2 days away. Most of the snow falls overnight and early morning Weds

[TugHillMatt]

Look at that! They still find some way to put Central NY in a snowfall minimum. Lol... Downsloping...or mild air...or a dry slot.... same ol thing. 

[wolfie09]

It's still snowing for CNY but timing here is worse.. Light snow starts here Wed morning..

[wolfie09]

It was a east of 0z..

[TugHillMatt]

Perhaps we can go a few tics more east and quicker. It will then somehow be weaker...but perhaps give us a snowy period.

[wolfie09]

Ukmet still the farthest east..

[wolfie09]

European on the opposite side of the spectrum..(still getting a little wrap around)

[tim123]

Getting decent model agreement now. Cleveland to Watertown 4 to 6 inches looks reasonable.

[TugHillMatt]

Sizzlercuse doing it's thing. 4 to 5 degrees above the projected high and 5 to 10 degrees warmer than most of the rest of the state.

I'm telling you... it's like the tropics of NY here. My next move is to a mountain top.

[tim123]

Hazardous weather Outlook issued for western ny. 

[wolfie09]

Yup, here it is..

Low pressure will pass over, or just south of the region late Tuesday
night and Wednesday, spreading widespread precipitation into the
area. A band of accumulating snow will likely occur to the northwest
of the low track. There remains a great deal of uncertainty with
respect to the track of this low, and where the heaviest snow will
fall, but it is possible that a late season, impactful snowfall may
occur across portions of the area late Tuesday night and Wednesday.

[wolfie09]

Our attention then turns to another strong mid level trough, digging
into the Upper Midwest Tuesday night before reaching the Ohio Valley
and eastern Great Lakes later Wednesday. A strong baroclinic wave
will develop along the frontal zone in response to increasing
forcing and flow adjustments downstream of the mid level trough,
with the resulting surface low running down the boundary from the
Ohio Valley Tuesday night to eastern NY by Wednesday afternoon.
Strong frontogenesis and differential temperature advection on the
cold side of the surface boundary will support widespread
precipitation later Tuesday night through the first half of
Wednesday over the eastern Great Lakes.

While the large scale pattern is well agreed upon, the precise
details of frontal position and low track will be critical in terms
of the surface temperatures, thermal profiles, and snow potential.
Model guidance has shown a good deal of run to run changes on these
details, not atypical for an event still 3 days out. A swath of
accumulating snow will almost certainly occur to the northwest of
the low track, but model guidance has varied on placement of this
from over western and north central NY to north of Lake Ontario
mainly on the Canadian side of the border. There may be a narrow
ribbon of sleet and freezing rain as well in the transition zone
between rain and snow.

For this cycle, trended the forecast quite a bit colder for later
Tuesday night and Wednesday with a rain/snow mix through that time
frame, especially in areas close to the Canadian border. The current
forecast represents a solution a little farther north and warmer
than the 12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM to blend in some previous, farther north
model runs. It should also be noted that past history shows this
type of system has a propensity to track farther north and west than
model guidance would suggest several days out. The range of
potential outcomes runs from very little snow at all to
accumulating, impactful snow for late Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Stay Tuned.

Wednesday night cold air will pour into the eastern Great Lakes
behind this system, with wrap around scattered snow showers
areawide. The airmass will grow cold enough for lake effect snow
showers southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario later Wednesday night.

[BuffaloWeather]

Top analog April 1st, 1989

 

[Thinksnow18]

25 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Our attention then turns to another strong mid level trough, digging
into the Upper Midwest Tuesday night before reaching the Ohio Valley
and eastern Great Lakes later Wednesday. A strong baroclinic wave
will develop along the frontal zone in response to increasing
forcing and flow adjustments downstream of the mid level trough,
with the resulting surface low running down the boundary from the
Ohio Valley Tuesday night to eastern NY by Wednesday afternoon.
Strong frontogenesis and differential temperature advection on the
cold side of the surface boundary will support widespread
precipitation later Tuesday night through the first half of
Wednesday over the eastern Great Lakes.

While the large scale pattern is well agreed upon, the precise
details of frontal position and low track will be critical in terms
of the surface temperatures, thermal profiles, and snow potential.
Model guidance has shown a good deal of run to run changes on these
details, not atypical for an event still 3 days out. A swath of
accumulating snow will almost certainly occur to the northwest of
the low track, but model guidance has varied on placement of this
from over western and north central NY to north of Lake Ontario
mainly on the Canadian side of the border. There may be a narrow
ribbon of sleet and freezing rain as well in the transition zone
between rain and snow.

For this cycle, trended the forecast quite a bit colder for later
Tuesday night and Wednesday with a rain/snow mix through that time
frame, especially in areas close to the Canadian border. The current
forecast represents a solution a little farther north and warmer
than the 12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM to blend in some previous, farther north
model runs. It should also be noted that past history shows this
type of system has a propensity to track farther north and west than
model guidance would suggest several days out. The range of
potential outcomes runs from very little snow at all to
accumulating, impactful snow for late Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Stay Tuned.

Wednesday night cold air will pour into the eastern Great Lakes
behind this system, with wrap around scattered snow showers
areawide. The airmass will grow cold enough for lake effect snow
showers southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario later Wednesday night.

It’s not unprecedented for these parts but to go from 80+ to possible WSW in a weeks time sure is the cherry on top of this whole shit pie the last 12 months has brought

[Thinksnow18]

All 3 major models are in relatively good agreement on this system. One more 24 hour run and there will probably be a WSW hoisted tomorrow at the 3pm update

[WaistDeepSnow]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Top analog April 1st, 1989

 

Look, there's the Arch!

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

GFS keeps the eastward tick going... 

[BuffaloWeather]

EPS

 

[wolfie09]

Rgem fwiw

[BuffaloWeather]

10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Rgem fwiw

Some pretty heavy rates as the low strengthens

[wolfie09]

[CNY_WX]

5 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Sizzlercuse doing it's thing. 4 to 5 degrees above the projected high and 5 to 10 degrees warmer than most of the rest of the state.

I'm telling you... it's like the tropics of NY here. My next move is to a mountain top.

You’re complaining about nice weather this time of year?