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2021-2022 ENSO


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8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

>+7f hitting 180W now.. they sometimes look like this before Strong Nino's but it's December.. 12/5.

11c.gif.787ac8f03b302498920c175a6d7db7d7.gif

atmosphere seems to consider Jan-Mar in the subsurface historically. I think I found it was like 3-1-3 before then. 

I said last fall I was pretty confident that it would be at least a healthy moderate warm ENSO next year....but we'll see what things look like later this year.

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23 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I said last fall I was pretty confident that it would be at least a healthy moderate warm ENSO next year....but we'll see what things look like later this year.

As long as it's not TOO strong! That happened in the 70s...2 back-to-back ninas, followed by a super niño that overwhelmed everything...that in turn lead to 2 more la ninas after it, lol I'd like to think we can avoid that again, but who knows?

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21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

As long as it's not TOO strong! That happened in the 70s...2 back-to-back ninas, followed by a super niño that overwhelmed everything...that in turn lead to 2 more la ninas after it, lol I'd like to think we can avoid that again, but who knows?

I don't expect a super el nino....this is a periodicity to those and we aren't there yet, as we just had one 7 years ago. I think the upside is like a 2009-2010 type of strength.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 12/6/2022 at 11:18 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't expect a super el nino....this is a periodicity to those and we aren't there yet, as we just had one 7 years ago. I think the upside is like a 2009-2010 type of strength.

@MaestrobjwaYou do realize that I am not claiming that next year will be a 2009-2010 redux, correct? I merely mentioned it because it was a strong el Nino that wasn't obscene. 

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6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@MaestrobjwaYou do realize that I am not claiming that next year will be a 2009-2010 redux, correct? I merely mentioned it because it was a strong el Nino that wasn't obscene. 

Huh? Of course...Now I use the weenie reaction differently: Not to call someone a weenie in the "that was wishful thinking" manner, but rather a "Awesome!" in a similar way I'd use the reaction if a model run looked good.

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  • 3 weeks later...

We are getting warm to near record warm in the western ENSO subsurface now.. this is *C, so if it's *F, that's about +10F, or 10degrees above average.. subsurface water normal temperature of 55 degrees would be about 65 degrees now. 

TAO_5Day_EQ_xz.thumb.gif.4455eb4c33b49a526e816f8942073794.gif

Differences in the N. Pacific pattern happen starting around 170W and -200m, to 120W and -100m.. that region is overall negative anomalies right now (favoring RNA, -PNA)

Only years that were this extreme in the subsurface were 1997..March. and 1982 Jan/Feb. If I'm wrong, someone correct me (memory from ~5+ years ago). I think this favors a Strong El Nono, with 70% chance of overall El Nino conditions later this year. 

But we are hitting strong -PNA in the first few days of February on LR models, so an atmospheric correction (nolag) has occurred?

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I would bet on +PNA conditions in April, and -PNA default in March, and maybe something resembling March31-Apr1 1997, but that's "3rd position point" of tampering/\/. lol(the storm correlation if it happens)

(^Nevermind +PNA March-Apr-May 2023, we had a strong N. Pacific Ocean 500mb vortex last March-April-May, which I think is this emerging El Nino already considered. [Extra point, I haven't been too scientifically oriented.] can obviously do better...

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9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So, any updates on how it's looking right now? Haven't seen a real update here in awhile!

I'm actually waiting for my posts to be approved.. Climatology shows that a strong subsurface warm pool right now leads strong NIno's such as '82 and '97. I think in a larger range of year you would have different results, I think we are going into El Nino, but maybe Weak or Moderate. (It could go strong, and have the N. Pacific have a base -PDO state, such as 72-73.)

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1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm actually waiting for my posts to be approved.. Climatology shows that a strong subsurface warm pool right now leads strong NIno's such as '82 and '97. I think in a larger range of year you would have different results, I think we are going into El Nino, but maybe Weak or Moderate. It could go strong, and have the N. Pacific have a base -PDO state, such as 72-73. 

....sorry didn't see the ones from earlier this week. appreciate your patience. 

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On 1/27/2023 at 11:48 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think that matters one bit.

As of right now.. will probably change when models change

If we are more +PNA Feb 5-21 we are stuck will possibly a -PNA March. If -PNA hits Feb 5-21 like models are currently showing, there could be some subsurface ENSO strength going into March(which actually won't matter ultimately!) If we run through both timeperiods independent, we are more likely to have an organic ENSO event this year. 

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