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2021-2022 ENSO


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The subsurface looks like it is making another push as of this week. I suspect this is beginning of the final push that should peak 11/15-12/15.

Here is an update on the "Don Sutherland curse", where we get 400% of rain for an extended period after he complains it is four degrees above average for a week. Still looks like Scotland here to me. I've been seeing all sorts of tadpoles, chipmunks, coyotes and stray animals in the wake of the wettest monsoon here in close to a decade, and then an extremely wet October as well. Nice to be losing drought conditions for once too. Especially since there are decent wet signals for us locally in the months to come.

ImageImageImageScreenshot-2022-10-24-7-48-26-PM

Screenshot-2022-10-24-7-49-04-PM

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If the mods let me do a 3 post.. pattern not breaking. +PNA Dec means +NAO, probably (or we'll do 18/30 days +NAO kind of thing). -PNA Jan and -PNA Feb still holding. Higher chance for -NAO these months, but not high variation variable. NAO, can one of these days bloster to +900dm anomaly, although maybe not in our lifetimes.

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I've been expecting +AO/+NAO/+WPO conditions for December (net) since August. There is a pretty strong correlation between Atlantic ACE and December blocking tendencies. Low ACE heavily disfavors blocking and a +WPO look in December statistically.

All that said, I think we get back to MJO phase five late November, and then there is a week or two with blocking that probably ends very early December, after the warm period coming for the East.

If the models are right at all about November precipitation, the Oct-Dec period I've been targeting for a wet West is going verify very well.

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On 10/29/2022 at 9:35 PM, raindancewx said:

I've been expecting +AO/+NAO/+WPO conditions for December (net) since August. There is a pretty strong correlation between Atlantic ACE and December blocking tendencies. Low ACE heavily disfavors blocking and a +WPO look in December statistically.

All that said, I think we get back to MJO phase five late November, and then there is a week or two with blocking that probably ends very early December, after the warm period coming for the East.

If the models are right at all about November precipitation, the Oct-Dec period I've been targeting for a wet West is going verify very well.

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As always thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts.  Always an interesting read! 

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Can't remember the exact time frame, but I think there is research saying that when the MJO gets stuck in 6/7 for a while, as it has been, you see blocking (-NAO) in 2-3 weeks as the pattern loosens up. That would be consistent with ideas for a late November period of blocking.

All that said, +/-NAO isn't much of a warm or cold signal in the US in November compared to other months - it's broadly irrelevant outside the far SE portion of the US (FL/GA/eastern NC/SC). Locally, the +NAO is actually a decent wet signal in November - so I'm hoping it remains positive. Part of why I had Nov quiet locally is the expectation of a brief -NAO period.

Also, the Euro plume had Nino 3.4 around, but a touch warm of -1.0C for October. I know people are obsessed with calling these events moderate, but come on, we're coming up on 15 years without a 25.5C or colder La Nina (-1.0C v. 1951-2010), and the weeklies have yet to fall below 25.7C at any point this Fall. Almost all La Ninas fall to 25.7C at some point...they kind of have to, to be La Nina.

Screenshot-2022-11-03-5-30-59-PM

Screenshot-2022-11-03-5-30-33-PM

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On 11/3/2022 at 7:36 PM, raindancewx said:

Screenshot-2022-11-03-5-30-33-PM

How interesting! I have been wondering this as there are months in the Spring where a -NAO rises to a 0.4 to 0.5 +correlation in the Rockies and West. It always looks like the Pacific is doing something/driving here, but when you take this into consideration is better see what the primary factors are... again, -PNA/+EPO occurring now in the Pacific is fake. It's been like this every single time since April. No signs of La Nina in the N. Hemisphere Pacific, when you look closer into it. 

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Again, I think this spells a big +PNA upcoming for December.

I say this over and over and over, and over over. Subsurface >>>> at N. Hemisphere pattern. It's like 0.90vs0.75. 

1a.thumb.gif.73c507decc0609b36ccc906b134c380f.gif

+4c is +7f

 

1b.gif.848b337b4f03864bf5af99a419242dc3.gif

Let's see the warm water hit the central subsurface in mid-late Jan last year (+30-45 days)(MJO-theory)

1d.gif.59d32feffdbb97c28b316c794836949b.gif

1e.gif.2ed8aada60575142baa83511bc7cb940.gif

 

1b.png

Also in June

2f.gif.deff067acb36993fe1c4ce640086a397.gif

It's like 21/24 since theorized-in practice, and this is even against Mod La Nina(+PNA). The 3 that missed were something close by, like the NAO theory you already posted. 

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3rd time we hit +4c bubble probably coming up in western subsurface... I think this actually increased chances for 4th year La Nina, as the +wave will happen before ENSO turns about in March. This is what happened last year (I found no +correlation between Xwest-Yeast -1 year). My analogs were showing ~+1.0c mean in Nino 3.4 for the year, and it kept feeding back with record -PDO, long term -PNA, -PNA/-PDO continuum. If we depress all of the warm energy this Winter, it's anyone's guess what happens next year, although my analogs earlier in this thread showed a +1.0-1.5c mean average for next year's ENSO (cold pool extending down South America (+SOI*). Solar Min has been 2010.. solar min, 2011 on.. we might be over the peak ascending where it favored La Nina 2-3:1 over El Nino. 

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I'm pretty sure my analogs were -PNA for December, but if the WPO/AO/NAO are positive like I expect with a +PNA it hardly even changes the real ground outcomes v. the temp profile I had. PNA is not a strong Dec temp signal in the US, especially for where 80% of the forum lives. You can see outside 2004, 2003, these are generally low-ACE years, and near all are El Ninos.

PNA-NAO-AO-WPO-Dec

Throw out the hyper active Atlantic years and you get this, which is I think what you mean by "fake -PNA", hard to say your posts are hard to read clearly. Some colder years like 2007 in there, but still, pretty warm.

PNA-WPO-NAO-AO-Dec-pos

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5 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I'm pretty sure my analogs were -PNA for December, but if the WPO/AO/NAO are positive like I expect with a +PNA it hardly even changes the real ground outcomes v. the temp profile I had. PNA is not a strong Dec temp signal in the US, especially for where 80% of the forum lives. You can see outside 2004, 2003, these are generally low-ACE years, and near all are El Ninos.

PNA-NAO-AO-WPO-Dec

Throw out the hyper active Atlantic years and you get this, which is I think what you mean by "fake -PNA", hard to say your posts are hard to read clearly. Some colder years like 2007 in there, but still, pretty warm.

PNA-WPO-NAO-AO-Dec-pos

I see this being very possible to start out December maybe not quite on those extremes but nonetheless a +NAO/-PNA pattern. This look will potentially be especially true if we do indeed come into phase 5 again toward the end of the month. I believe as we close out the month of December that would be our next opportunity to allow for cold and snow potential outside of around turkey day in the east and midwest. I mentioned on another forum this really is looking like a back and forth winter for us in the east. So how the rest of November plays out of course.

Im also rather happy to see the west coast getting into some action. Can not believe what Arizona and New Mexico look like on the drought monitor havent seen it at those levels in a long long time.

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On 5/4/2022 at 7:13 PM, raindancewx said:

Nino 3.4, Feb, Mar, Apr, FMA

1999    25.43    26.33    26.70    26.15
2000    25.21    26.30    26.95    26.15
1955    25.81    26.22    26.60    26.21
1976    25.49    26.46    26.88    26.28
2022    25.86    26.30    26.69    26.28
2011    25.64    26.36    27.05    26.35
1956    25.76    26.46    26.85    26.36
1968    25.68    26.33    27.10    26.37
1975    26.07    26.19    26.86    26.37
1985    26.03    26.50    26.64    26.39
2021    25.75    26.48    27.10    26.44
1967    26.11    26.50    26.74    26.45

Similar FMA Nino 3.4 (26.28C, +/-0.2C), and similar solar, low but rising:

1955, 1956, 1967, 1968, 1999, 2000, 2011. Actually a decent signal for the monsoon really, implies strong TX/Plain high pressure. Precip & Temp maps look like the correlation map above.

Screenshot-2022-05-04-7-11-24-PM

Signal was there in May for rapid improvements in moisture out here. 

Screenshot-2022-11-09-6-07-15-PM

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On 11/9/2022 at 1:11 AM, so_whats_happening said:

I see this being very possible to start out December maybe not quite on those extremes but nonetheless a +NAO/-PNA pattern. This look will potentially be especially true if we do indeed come into phase 5 again toward the end of the month. I believe as we close out the month of December that would be our next opportunity to allow for cold and snow potential outside of around turkey day in the east and midwest. I mentioned on another forum this really is looking like a back and forth winter for us in the east. So how the rest of November plays out of course.

Im also rather happy to see the west coast getting into some action. Can not believe what Arizona and New Mexico look like on the drought monitor havent seen it at those levels in a long long time.

With the forcing going back to the eastern IO and Maritime continent the tail end of this month and early December, a decent SE ridge probably pops 

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I see people referring to 2010 November as a decent match to this November. Is 2011 really that off though practically? The timing is off a bit - but my scale below is -7 to +7 in increments of 2F, so it's not like I picked some near average period. I've not been a fan of 2011 for precipitation patterns at all, but it's definitely been a strong match for temps most of this year.

ImageImage

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Love it raindancewx. US is the superstition to lead, but beneath all the depths is real primary. 

Dec 2010 was the only Dec that matched 2021 by 1.5x #2. This correlation has carried us through the year, and I think should continue to match 11-12 as a winter analog. We have also be reversing 500mb anomalies for the last 2 years. Put those 2 together and you have a nice forecast position. 

https://imgur.com/a/5AToS86

https://imgur.com/a/R2UC3k7

(hopefully everyone can see this)

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One more https://imgur.com/a/PMELSPi (if not this year, next year)

Subsurface is more warm than cold anomalies, despite Moderate La Nina at the surface, extending down to south, South America

https://imgur.com/a/aOfDVWw

This is going to hit +30-45 days, Dec 15-31, as impacting the N. hemisphere pattern (warm ENSO-subsurface)-probably +PNA or -NAO(EC trough).  

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Average high in Albuquerque in La Nina November is about 59.3F, around +2F against the 100-year average.

The cold November La Ninas are an interesting bunch, if we do manage to hold off the warmth that should come back late month.

56.3F or colder highs in La Nina, 1931-2021 

Nov 1938, 1956, 1964, 1984, 2000 (1938 also had record early Nov NE US heat, btw).

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17 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Nov 16-Dec 15 peak idea for this event still looks plausible to me.

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Only 25.9C at the surface in Nino 3.4. Even using the absurdly warm baseline in the weeklies, that's a pretty weak La Nina as we get close to when these things peak.

As always, thanks for sharing your thoughts on weather. You are one of the most knowledgeable forum members.  AMWX is fortunate to have you as member!

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Not a lot of week long, nationwide severe cold this part of November in La Ninas if you look. But I did mention 1984 as probably the single best match for the winter...and sure enough - pretty damn cold in the matching period nationwide. Florida is in its own little world, but -3 or colder nearly everywhere in Farenheit. You can sort of see that the origin source of the cold in 1984 is NE of where it was this past week.

I'm up to 12 days in ABQ in November that finished at least 5 degrees below normal. So the low ACE correlation to cold snaps in the West is holding up rather well. For reference, all of Nov 2017-Feb 2018 had only 10 cold days (10/120) v. (12/22) in 2022-23.

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  • 2 weeks later...

MacDonald and Case[24] reconstructed the PDO back to 993 using tree rings from California and Alberta. The index shows a 50–70 year periodicity but is a strong mode of variability only after 1800, a persistent negative phase occurring during medieval times (993–1300) which is consistent with La Niña conditions reconstructed in the tropical Pacific[25] and multi-century droughts in the South-West United States.[26]

 

6c.thumb.png.cc9c3d4039c94f3284fdca8d43e70587.png

0/7 I think 3rd year La Nina's going into the 4th year, since the 1800s. 

6d.png.b0dc6ee0fbbf51bf5f00a5725b018c50.png

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