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2021-2022 ENSO


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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wonder how much impact this recent solar flareup will have on winter....solar 25 seems to be off and running.

Imo I feel like every cold/snowy winter has a solar flare mentioned in October/November…

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I mentioned in my winter outlook that I expected November to feature two distinct patterns, with a flip mid-month. Modeled that after August. You can see that the CFS has one of the two patterns I mentioned, using August. You can see the core heat in the Northwest with the South cold, like in the one part of the August pattern. In August, the cold in the West showed up later. If you're like me and think the CFS is much better at seeing the early month look, then the late August cold push may still be in there, but not visible yet to the CFS. These were from page 38 of my outlook - you can see it in the other thread.

Screenshot-2021-10-29-5-28-58-PMAug-in-Nov-1

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The subsurface blotch of cold is moving up and east to the surface. This is consistent with my matches to Nino 1.2, 3, 3.4, and 4 for Jan-Sept which showed Nino 4 not cooling much after the Fall, unlike last year. Nino 1.2/3 will probably cool most at the surface at the surface (relatively). You can also see that the warm area is expanding east and by intensity.

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

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On 10/28/2021 at 10:28 PM, raindancewx said:

This is the period most correlated to ACE nationally in La Ninas - basically always warm in the West when 160 or higher. Last year certainly was warm in the West for NDJ. The white areas are more variable, so last year only is a decent match to the West.

ACE 160+, NDJ, La Nina:

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ACE <160, NDJ, La Nina. The last year like this was 2016-17, and it certainly matches the hot Southeast US look, although again the rest of the US is variable.

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Weatherbell has the "super ACE" La Nina composite for NDJ on the Saturday Summary today. Will be curious to see how that goes. I'm actually not that different from what he has in Nov & Jan, just warmer. Have to see if these November 'x' systems on the NHC site can blow up the ACE value past 160. I'm pretty skeptical about December being super cold, mostly because I think November gets pretty cold after 11/15 or 11/20 and then it lasts into December and fades hard before 12/31

Screenshot-2021-10-30-6-43-33-PM

 

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This event, if you use my dulled scale, is definitely not super weak, but it remains well below the stronger events of even the past 35 years, let alone since 1950.

A lot of La Ninas feature a big area of waters 1.5C below average or colder in October. You don't really have that with this event. In general, October looks like a blend of 1999, 2011, 2020.

I would say since 1985, the strongest October La Ninas are 1988, 1998, 2007, 2010.

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Then you have the events that are developed by October, but lacking a huge area of very cold waters at the surface. Last year's event was actually a top 10 event cold-ENSO in Oct-Nov before falling off a lot.

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The remaining events were weaker and not fully developed in October. These are the "late peak" and very weak events.

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This is the top objective SOI match to August-October 2021 using 1931-2020. It's a super cold look for November, although the closest match is 1942, which is a very warm November.

Screenshot-2021-10-31-12-08-54-PM

SOI Aug Sept Oct
1935 2.1 6.4 7.9
1942 3.9 8.7 9.2
1974 6.3 12.2 9.2
1996 4.8 6.9 5.2
2000 4.5 10.1 11.6
2011 2.6 11.1 9.7
Blend 4.0 9.2 8.8
2021 4.4 9.2 7.6

The five analogs I like for winter are damn close on the SOI too if you remove 2001, which I have in there for some special reasons. The blend I used doubled 1961 and added 2001 to the four years below, but it's still very similar to that look.

Screenshot-2021-10-31-12-08-22-PM

SOI Aug Sept Oct
1961 -0.3 1.1 4.7
1974 6.3 12.2 9.2
2017 3.5 6.1 10.6
2020 8.4 9.9 4.4
Blend 4.5 7.3 7.2
2021 4.4 9.2 7.6

My personal view is global warming in a lot of patterns just means cold looks show up later. So I think the severe cold in the first blend probably does arrive. It's just not til the very end of the month, or at least after 11/15 or 11/20. If that's the case, I think what I have (and what the CFS shows now) is closer to the truth.

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1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Nino 3.4 dropped to -1.1 C fwiw.

Woah! The strength of the La Niña is increasing quickly. I know you have said earlier you think it peaks at around -1.2, do you think we are close to peak strength right now or are you starting to think it may even become a strong La Niña? 

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                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 29SEP2021     21.2 0.5     24.9-0.1     26.3-0.4     28.0-0.6
 06OCT2021     21.0 0.2     24.7-0.3     26.1-0.6     28.0-0.7
 13OCT2021     20.7-0.2     24.4-0.7     26.0-0.8     28.1-0.5
 20OCT2021     20.3-0.7     24.2-0.8     25.9-0.8     28.1-0.6
 27OCT2021     20.6-0.6     24.1-0.9     25.6-1.1     28.2-0.5
 30SEP2020     20.0-0.8     24.4-0.6     26.0-0.7     27.9-0.7
 07OCT2020     20.1-0.7     24.1-0.9     25.8-0.9     27.9-0.7
 14OCT2020     20.5-0.4     24.1-0.9     25.6-1.1     27.8-0.8
 21OCT2020     20.5-0.6     24.2-0.9     25.5-1.3     27.8-0.8
 28OCT2020     20.3-0.9     23.8-1.3     25.0-1.7     28.0-0.7

 

We remain warmer at the surface v 2020. I've included in ( ) the 1967, 2001, 2011 blend for the main zones I mentioned in my winter outlook for October. We're a bit less east based at the moment than I had it, but not much. It's mostly because Nino 1.2 has been so much warmer than that blend. October on the weeklies implies:

Nino 1.2: 20.65C

Nino 3:   24.35C   (24.03C)

Nino 3.4: 25.85C   (26.07C)

Nino 4:    28.10C    (28.38C)

The October subsurface reading was -1.67 for 0-300m depth at the equator in the Pacific. Tracking very similar to 2011 still, but colder below. There is evidence of the subsurface warming now though. Surface peak may be November (that's pretty common).

Screenshot-2021-11-01-5-20-16-PM

The Canadian seems to over-amplify ENSO strength every October, then back off in November - so you do have it showing a much weaker event now for winter.

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That said, I do think the Canadian is pretty good at identifying temperature patterns for the next month.

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My main analogs for winter were 1974 and 2017. The blend is pretty similar to the Canadian. That said, I did weight the five years blend I used pretty differently. I'm a lot closer to what the CFS showed for November. My winter blend is pretty close to a simple blend of 1974 and 2017 for temperatures, even with the three other years added in, so I actually find this encouraging for an analog package I put together from late-September to early-October.

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5 hours ago, George001 said:

Woah! The strength of the La Niña is increasing quickly. I know you have said earlier you think it peaks at around -1.2, do you think we are close to peak strength right now or are you starting to think it may even become a strong La Niña? 

 

 Yeah, I predicted within a range of -1.0 to -1.4. I'm sticking with that. Keep in mind that that is for the ONI trimonthly fall/winter peak. The weeklies, themselves, would peak higher than the trimonthly, of course.

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6 hours ago, raindancewx said:

You can see the coldest blotch of waters is actually moving pretty quickly to the east now. 140W and -100m on 9/25 for the center. Then 130W and -80m on 10/31 for the center. There is a lot of warmth coming that will drain into Western Nino 4 too.

Screenshot-2021-11-04-7-07-18-PM

Screenshot-2021-11-04-7-07-06-PM

Are la ninas actually more common than el ninos are, but when el ninos occur they are usually stronger?

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The 160W-150W area is most important in the subsurface, and now it's net warm, I would technically as per all of my ENSO research classify this a +ENSO right now, and look what models have in a few days. 

https://ibb.co/9V7Wdb8

I don't think a La Nina has ever gone dead that early, they cycle through about Dec 21st, so I think we may see a redevelopment of cold anomalies in 160-150W starting in about 10-15 days.. but right now the strong western warm pool has breached the most important region.. kind of surprising I wonder if we will hit Strong Nino next year, I remember some impressive attempts/fails in 96-97 and 01-02. 

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