raindancewx Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 One thing I looked at last year was the WPO state in La Nina Octobers and then the following winters. These are "meaningfully" positive or negative WPO years since 1950. -WPO October La Ninas: 1954, 1974, 1984, 1988, 1995, 1999. You can throw in "near-La Ninas" 1959, 1966, 1967, 1978, 1981, 1996, 2001, 2012 too. It's not a not super common look though. Last year was -1.18 in October. Whether you include the near years or not, the signature is for a cold spot in the interior West (Great Basin). I had a similar look to that, but it the cold was centered SE of where I had it, by TX rather than Utah. +WPO October La Ninas: 1950, 1955, 1956, 1964, 1970, 1971, 1973, 1983, 1998, 2000, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2016, 2017. The "near-La Ninas" of 1960, 1961, 1962, 1980 too. The +WPO Octobers have the Southern and Eastern US warm and a tiny cold spot in the Northwest (Montana to WA). It's a essentially a classic -PDO signature. Assuming the WPO finishes positive this month, will be interesting to see if we go to the latter composite. That's essentially what I forecast for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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