raindancewx Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 The CFS may be off it's rocker, but it has a very wet October in the Southwest. We're heading into a cold-ENSO winter. But we also should have a pretty high ACE value. It's not real common for a wet October + big ACE combo to happen down here, especially with a cold ENSO look. I'm real curious to see what happens in the Atlantic - 2020 October-November ACE was third highest since 1931, behind 1932 and 2016. Unheard of to be as active as 2020 was late two years in a row. So ACE might only hit 155 or 160 or something. My weighted analogs of 1974 and 2017 as a blend might actually be about right - 150 ish ACE, with 1.00 inch of rain in October. Some of the moisture shown is the CFS not understanding a lot of the incoming rain will fall 9/30 in actual American time and not UTC. But it probably does see an actual wet month even ignoring that issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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