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2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion


Kmlwx
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30 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

No kicker, we lose.

Had a good streak this week. I'm okay with a dud day at this point. Almost time to start looking for east coast tropical too ;) 

OT - but I really hope we are done with 95+ after this heat wave ends. Past August 15th I'm going into fall mode and hunting the first fall cold front. 

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13 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Had a good streak this week. I'm okay with a dud day at this point. Almost time to start looking for east coast tropical too ;) 

OT - but I really hope we are done with 95+ after this heat wave ends. Past August 15th I'm going into fall mode and hunting the first fall cold front. 

Tomorrow could be sneaky good. We've been baking for 2 days and there's an actual front pressing down.

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7 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Nothing much more than a gut feeling, but I’m thinking today could get hairy in some backyards.

HRRR brings activity in - but it's not all that intense - but wonder if it is a result of the overmixing of the model that @high risk has mentioned.

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no lack of fuel in the atmosphere today, that's for sure.  feels every bit as hot as yesterday.  i moved to frederick recently and had a nice downburst or outflow the other day, probably enhanced by the catoctin's.  i'm so used to the moco climate that i've gotta get used to how things develop here.

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50 minutes ago, 87storms said:

no lack of fuel in the atmosphere today, that's for sure.  feels every bit as hot as yesterday.  i moved to frederick recently and had a nice downburst or outflow the other day, probably enhanced by the catoctin's.  i'm so used to the moco climate that i've gotta get used to how things develop here.

What part of Fred Co? I am in the SW part of the Co and the mountains and Potomac affect anything coming in from the South and the West. We usually do pretty good down here when it drops from the NW. That being said my area has not been that lucky this year. Very dry down here. 

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46 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

What part of Fred Co? I am in the SW part of the Co and the mountains and Potomac affect anything coming in from the South and the West. We usually do pretty good down here when it drops from the NW. That being said my area has not been that lucky this year. Very dry down here. 

I’m nw of downtown/rosemont, in between yellow springs and ft Detrick. Not too far from gambrill state park.

I don’t think the entire area has gotten much rain compared to the last few years. I mountain bike a fair amount and even Moco has had some relatively dry trails.

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1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

Radar looks pretty good to the west. Now we wait and see how much punch it has once it gets closer to the metros. 

          I'm expecting something similar to Wednesday, as have a similar combination of high CAPE and fairly high downdraft CAPE but no shear.    Storms will pulse, and there will be some impressive wind events, but it shouldn't be anything too organized.

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5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

DCAPE is still several hundred J/kg lower than previous days. CAPE seems fine overall. 

       It's up around 900 or so.    Was it that much higher on previous days?     Regardless, that's enough today to still have downburst issues, especially given the high CAPE.

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19 minutes ago, high risk said:

       It's up around 900 or so.    Was it that much higher on previous days?     Regardless, that's enough today to still have downburst issues, especially given the high CAPE.

I think it was around 1200 on the stormier days and 1400 yesterday (which was a dud)

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22 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Lightning tracker looks solid 

Is there an easy way to explain how this works?  I watched a pretty good bolt hit the ground very close to me in Towson with a huge bang last round of storms and a few min later on Radarscope it showed the bolt inside the blue location circle on my iPhone - - amazingly accurate I might add as the bolt hit to the south a bit and it was almost pinpoint accuracy to my eye on RadarScope.  Are there lightning antennas all over town and its triangulating?  That can't be it you would need to blanket the entire country!

   

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3 minutes ago, AdamHLG said:

Is there an easy way to explain how this works?  I watched a pretty good bolt hit the ground very close to me in Towson with a huge bang last round of storms and a few min later on Radarscope it showed the bolt inside the blue location circle on my iPhone - - amazingly accurate I might add as the bolt hit to the south a bit and it was almost pinpoint accuracy to my eye on RadarScope.  Are there lightning antennas all over town and its triangulating?  That can't be it you would need to blanket the entire country!

   

This is one of the big providers. 

 

https://www.earthnetworks.com/Portals/0/pdf/ENTLN Global Slick_v4.pdf

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2 minutes ago, AdamHLG said:

Is there an easy way to explain how this works?  I watched a pretty good bolt hit the ground very close to me in Towson with a huge bang last round of storms and a few min later on Radarscope it showed the bolt inside the blue location circle on my iPhone - - amazingly accurate I might add as the bolt hit to the south a bit and it was almost pinpoint accuracy to my eye on RadarScope.  Are there lightning antennas all over town and its triangulating?  That can't be it you would need to blanket the entire country!

   

Or possibly an army of weather weenies posting their obs in real time. B)

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