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Ralph Wiggum

February 15-16 Event

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1 minute ago, RedSky said:

ECM is alone with it, usually when it has no support it's wrong.

 

It’s far from alone. Alot of guidance has .75-1” qpf with temps of 32-33 degrees. It’s still 3 days out and much can change but the general consensus is someone’s going to get a lot of ice.  

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Total Ice accretion through Friday Morning on the Euro.  This signal has been glaring for many days now ... someone is going to get wacked with one heck of an icing event. 

BFF64C3C-ABBD-4874-996F-B0435B68573C.jpeg

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10 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Are we throwing out the NAM now it's been kicking ECM butt

The NAM is 33 and rain. The models aren’t really all that far apart here. 

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3 minutes ago, Snowcane21 said:

The NAM is 33 and rain. The models aren’t really all that far apart here. 

Exactly....the usual zones (upper montco, upper Bucks, berks, lehigh, n chesco) are in trouble.

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7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Exactly....the usual zones (upper montco, upper Bucks, berks, lehigh, n chesco) are in trouble.

That’s what im saying, I should have clarified. I have 16”+ snowpack, I think those areas you highlighted should prepare for the worst, and hopefully expect rain. But I just don’t see it

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Simply incredible to see ... a very rare event unfolding across the nation... the entire state of Oklahoma is under a winter storm warning and watches are down to the beaches of south Texas. This storm will be remembered for a very long time ... hopefully we escape a devastating ice storm. 

CE896AAA-A849-4E22-86B9-6076A8DE7E98.jpeg

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Thing about an ice storm is experienced countless 28-32F moderate rain ice events and none were eventful, take temps 25 and below for significant ice accrual.

 

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15 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Thing about an ice storm is experienced countless 28-32F moderate rain ice events and none were eventful, take temps 25 and below for significant ice accrual.

 

I would go lower during daytime. 27F today and light drizzle and nothing. Took a stroll and everything was wet.

People don't want to admit it but the sun angle is kicking in...27F currently, no ice.  

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9 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I would go lower during daytime. 27F today and light drizzle and nothing. Took a stroll and everything was wet.

People don't want to admit it but the sun angle is kicking in...27F currently, no ice.  

I do not understand what you mean about sun angle at 27 degrees?

Changing the subject...I live in north Wales boro and have a temperature of 25.

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Naefs still indicating a minor possibly moderate flood threat this week for the areas that won't stay frozen especially in the smaller tributaries.

https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs?Lat=40&Lon=-77&Zoom=7

And that doesn't include all of the storm drains that are blocked and frozen around here, there's going to be a lot of water with nowhere to go. 

 

Lehigh valley and other elevated areas will have to watch for ice but I just still do not seeing it be that big of a deal from central bucks/montco s and e but hey maybe the euro will finally score a coup after being hot garbage all year.

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17 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I would go lower during daytime. 27F today and light drizzle and nothing. Took a stroll and everything was wet.

People don't want to admit it but the sun angle is kicking in...27F currently, no ice. 

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10 minutes ago, blue sky said:

I do not understand what you mean about sun angle at 27 degrees?

Changing the subject...I live in north Wales boro and have a temperature of 25.

You're older than me and if you don't know what sun angle means by now, I don't know what to tell you. Not being disrespectful.

Accu weather/Weather Underground have me at 27F. Could they be off by a degree or so...sure? 

 

 

 

aw.jpg

wu.jpg

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3 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Who had a rougher 2020-2021 season, the Euro or Carson Wentz? 

Lol...both a disaster.

Howie is turning down trades I would make in a sec. Somehow he thinks Wentz is an Elite QB? 

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5 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

You're older than me and if you don't know what sun angle means by now, I don't know what to tell you. Not being disrespectful.

Accu weather/Weather Underground have me at 27F. Could they be off by a degree or so...sure? 

 

 

 

aw.jpg

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Sun Angle effects temperature.  Warmer in summers...colder in winter.  How does it affect this storm at 25-27 degrees? 

Accue weather had me at 25 in the boro.

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14 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Who had a rougher 2020-2021 season, the Euro or Carson Wentz? 

If you look at the skill score the Euro is still leading the pac by far. It’s not even close 

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1 minute ago, blue sky said:

Sun Angle effects temperature.  Warmer in summers...colder in winter.  How does it affect this storm at 25-27 degrees? 

Accue weather had me at 25 in the boro.

It will heat the surface more so than Dec, Jan...slowly but surely ice/snow will be harder to accumulate on surfaces. I've gone Trout fishing in late March/early April w/early temps in the 20s/30s and by the end of the day, sunburned w/a high of 45-50F.  

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6 minutes ago, Snowcane21 said:

If you look at the skill score the Euro is still leading the pac by far. It’s not even close 

No it isn't. 

 

monthly_ts_rmse_GZ500_NA_120.png

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34 minutes ago, blue sky said:

I do not understand what you mean about sun angle at 27 degrees?

Changing the subject...I live in north Wales boro and have a temperature of 25.

I'm in blue bell attm 26f and glazing

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24 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

You're older than me and if you don't know what sun angle means by now, I don't know what to tell you. Not being disrespectful.

Accu weather/Weather Underground have me at 27F. Could they be off by a degree or so...sure? 

 

 

 

aw.jpg

wu.jpg

Has nothing to do with sun angle in this case.  Good lord

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Thing about an ice storm is experienced countless 28-32F moderate rain ice events and none were eventful, take temps 25 and below for significant ice accrual.

 

Nighttime is a different story though. Feb. 5th 2014 we had freezing rain between midnight and 8 am, all between 30-32F, and lost power for 3 days. Of course there was snow stuck to trees from a wet snow a couple of days before, which accelerated the process, but we did get about 3/8" of ice overnight. 

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14 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

As I said it’s Not Even Close.... see 2020 skill score for the Euro... it continues to dominate. It’s not perfect but it’s the clear leader. 

560907DC-1152-4D3F-BD46-E396AEA436C1.jpeg

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