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Just now, LakeEffectKing said:

I think Syrmax, Freak and Matt are in the game tomorrow night....and Some scraps for me too!  And don't count out some influences from Geo Bay.

I tend to agree. I get lost looking at the slew of model output for this but the general look is good for us here. I could see a 5 or 6" LES event here. That is usually the upper end here but we're also overdue for an exceedance. So, fingers crossed!

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1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Looks like he includes the rte. 31 corridor as the line...hard to tell though with the fading white color. @Syrmax may actually have the best chance out of our group.

Nah, I'm right in the middle of the 6-12" but where the blue fades to white but it was also supposed to be in the same spot last night and where did that band end up, lol? I want this band more than anyone else but when you've been burned so many times especially wrt LES, it gets old quick, lol, but nonetheless I'm good.

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4 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Nah, I'm right in the middle of the 6-12" but where the blue fades to white but it was also supposed to be in the same spot last night and where did that band end up, lol? I want this band more than anyone else but when you've been burned so many times especially wrt LES, it gets old quick, lol, but nonetheless I'm good.

Hopefully this isn't right, because then we're skunked again.

snku_acc.us_ne.png

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49 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:
GSB Cities The 2020 - 2021
Snow Season
Normal Average 
to Date
This Time 
Last Season
Normal
Seasons Average
All Time Season 
Snowfall Record
           
Binghamton 79.5 51.7 53.7 83.4 135.2 inches (2016 - 2017)
Buffalo 55.6 66.9 50.7 94.7 199.4 inches (1976 - 1977)
Syracuse 47.6 84.3 60.9 123.8 192.1 inches (1992 - 1993)
Albany 47.5 38.5 38.9 60.2 112.5 inches (1970 - 1971)
Rochester 43.8 63.7 73.0 99.5 161.7 inches (1959 - 1960)

KBUF, if all goes perfect, could make up that deficit this weekend 

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3 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

SUffice to say but were gonna have to moisten up as the Temp is 13F and a dp of 2F so I don't know how much of the precip it'll eat up before it starts to precipitate, at least a few hrs worth Id imagine.

Synoptic snow? What's that? :lol:

I like this cone for the lake effect event. Gets us all in. I would prefer it more south, as I could get dumped on...but this gets me in 6 inches.

snku_acc.us_ne.png

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2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Synoptic snow? What's that? :lol:

I like this cone for the lake effect event. Gets us all in. I would prefer it more south, as I could get dumped on...but this gets me in 6 inches.

snku_acc.us_ne.png

Yeah that would literally bury me, lol, close to 1' out there now and then another 18" but that would be equivalent to Moses parting the Red Sea, ,lol!

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I  haven't been doing that well, I'm still below normal. Eastern and Southern NY are far above normal. Carol is way behind too.

Good point. You're doing better in comparison to most of us in the lake effect belts. I think you might be almost 2 feet ahead of us? Southern and Eastern NY appear to be continuing their great run this week.

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Not a bad H700 as the flow is pretty much parallel to the direction of the the greatest RH values but theres not much energy with it at all  as its a completely open wave but there is a nice streak directly overhead but thats at H500.

700mb_sf.gif?1612841054372

If someone showed me this map I'd say where's the storm at cause's theres zero reflection anywhere except H500, lol. Dominated by HP and yet we're getting a SWFL event, go figure!

pmsl.gif?1612841134857

 

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5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

This whole event tonight and tomorrow is perfect for this winter. A band north...and band south...they merge once east of us. lol

Let's just see what happens...the potential is there.   No use getting negg'd out over this or that model with this.

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