Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now getting back in pocket. Couple of things: 1. Pattern looks REALLY good if you live in west and middle TN during the next 10 days. 2. The MJO for the EMON and EURO is a BIG improvement...let's hope we don't go with US modeling. If modeling trends towards the Euro, there are some big changes in store for modeling still yet to come. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just looking at the CMC, GFS and Euro for 12z...looks like this sub-forum is going to be an active place. Though details are not nailed down...sure seems like the intersection of precip and cold is in this area. Right now, I favor middle and west areas first with the threat gradually pushing east. The 12z Euro IMHO would be a massive ice storm for pretty much everyone. I know it had rain in the East, but doubt that cold is going to get scoured that quickly with two highs sitting over the top. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 12z suite is loaded for bear....Looks like 3-4 windows for winter weather. Pretty much every system is going to have to be watched as each one has a winter component on the west and NW side. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just need to get that Cold moving East faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 14 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Just now getting back in pocket. Couple of things: 1. Pattern looks REALLY good if you live in west and middle TN during the next 10 days. 2. The MJO for the EMON and EURO is a BIG improvement...let's hope we don't go with US modeling. If modeling trends towards the Euro, there are some big changes in store for modeling still yet to come. I agree carver! Right now storm tracks are hammering the the dakotas, Nebraska, Iowa, northern Missouri, etc. it’s only a matter of time before that track moves south a bit, (hopefully). If and when it does, it could be a big time event for somewhere in our forum area. They were getting hammered day after day in Des Moines while I was up there, and central Missouri got pounded yesterday as I was on my way home, it was a very difficult drive to say the least. I say all that just to reiterate how much energy is flying around the lower 48 right now. Given the cold air in place to our north, we have a lot of variables in are favor to produce a good storm over the next 5-10 days. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestTennWX Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Memphis Disco...looks like an Ice Storm Warning may be in our future National Weather Service Memphis TN 1148 AM CST Tue Feb 9 2021 .UPDATE... A quasi-stationary front lies across the Mid-South at this time, separating cold, arctic air from a mild air mass to the south. Temperatures in northeast AR and the Bootheel are currently in the upper 20s and lower 30s while readings are approaching 60F at Tupelo. The flow aloft is quasi-zonal at this time with no strong shortwave trough approaching in the very near term. This will keep PoPs limited today. A few light showers or perhaps some drizzle, is possible north of the front and we`re seeing visibility reduced to 3-5SM from Jonesboro into northwest TN. Temperatures aren`t expected to improve much today given the cold advection and cloud cover across the region. Isentropic ascent will increase tonight as a strong upper-level jet propagates across the Great Lakes. This will enhance rain chances tonight, especially late. QPF will likely be slightly higher than last night, but temperatures will be below freezing in the northwest portion of the CWA. This may result in some light freezing rain/drizzle and could result in some travel problems overnight. Rather than issue a Winter Weather Advisory on top of the Winter Storm Watch, the better option may be to begin an Ice Storm Warning (continuing through the "main event" Wednesday night into Thursday) earlier for some areas to encompass both events. Will have more on that this afternoon, but wanted to get the current thinking out in the open. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, WestTennWX said: Memphis Disco...looks like an Ice Storm Warning may be in our future National Weather Service Memphis TN 1148 AM CST Tue Feb 9 2021 .UPDATE... A quasi-stationary front lies across the Mid-South at this time, separating cold, arctic air from a mild air mass to the south. Temperatures in northeast AR and the Bootheel are currently in the upper 20s and lower 30s while readings are approaching 60F at Tupelo. The flow aloft is quasi-zonal at this time with no strong shortwave trough approaching in the very near term. This will keep PoPs limited today. A few light showers or perhaps some drizzle, is possible north of the front and we`re seeing visibility reduced to 3-5SM from Jonesboro into northwest TN. Temperatures aren`t expected to improve much today given the cold advection and cloud cover across the region. Isentropic ascent will increase tonight as a strong upper-level jet propagates across the Great Lakes. This will enhance rain chances tonight, especially late. QPF will likely be slightly higher than last night, but temperatures will be below freezing in the northwest portion of the CWA. This may result in some light freezing rain/drizzle and could result in some travel problems overnight. Rather than issue a Winter Weather Advisory on top of the Winter Storm Watch, the better option may be to begin an Ice Storm Warning (continuing through the "main event" Wednesday night into Thursday) earlier for some areas to encompass both events. Will have more on that this afternoon, but wanted to get the current thinking out in the open. You all feel free to fire-up a thread. Been a while since that area of the forum has had a thread for an event. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 This is the 12z EPS. This is the look that brings winter wx to the forum area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just looking at the ensembles....looks like an outside thread at a light mixed precip event Sunday, a bigger event around the 16th, and then the overrunning pattern just holds. We are going to have to work for it in eastern areas, but man....middle and west TN are looking good. Honestly, if the 12z EPS is correct in the depiction of the gradient....it is going to be a wild couple of weeks. And we haven't really pushed back the pattern. The boundary for the cold air has been moved, but the overrunning pattern is still appears legit. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Been a while since we have seen a 384 mean for the entire sub-forum that looked like this. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestTennWX Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 18 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: You all feel free to fire-up a thread. Been a while since that area of the forum has had a thread for an event. Thanks Carver, went ahead and started one. I'm on the fence with Ice Storms, it's a love/hate thing. Memories of 09 are still pretty fresh, we were without power for a week here in Obion County. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, WestTennWX said: Thanks Carver, went ahead and started one. I'm on the fence with Ice Storms, it's a love/hate thing. Memories of 09 are still pretty fresh, we were without power for a week here in Obion County. Yeah, the thread doesn't mean anyone likes it! Totally agree. However, if they are talking ice storm warnings...it is newsworthy and worth discussing IMO. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Yet another one of the options on the table for next week's system: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Annnddddd at our hour of dire need, the GFS v16 has returned: a gif of all three systems we've been talking about, since it has been so long since we've had access to its data. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 16 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Annnddddd at our hour of dire need, the GFS v16 has returned: a gif of all three systems we've been talking about, since it has been so long since we've had access to its data. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 18z gfs ice storms back on the 16th 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Like clockwork, when we begin to see even one model exit the MJO 6/7 loop...seems like we see the front press on all models. I know I sound like a broken record, but this boundary "should" press eastward with each piece of energy. Have to think the Tuesday system is looking like a significant event, but I am going to remain guarded with that. Also, beware of systems that cut directly into big highs. They may attack them as the enter or exit the area, but if they are over the Lakes, easter Plains, or central Plains....that system is likely to be forced southeast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Carvers Gap said: Like clockwork, when we begin to see even one model exit the MJO 6/7 loop...seems like we see the front press on all models. I know I sound like a broken record, but this boundary "should" press eastward with each piece of energy. Have to think the Tuesday system is looking like a significant event, but I am going to remain guarded with that. Also, beware of systems that cut directly into big highs. They may attack them as the enter or exit the area, but if they are over the Lakes, easter Plains, or central Plains....that system is likely to be forced southeast. Modeling has tried to cut straight into banana highs at times all winter and it's yet to happen. I have to assume there is something in the underlying physics that causes that. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 53 minutes ago, John1122 said: Modeling has tried to cut straight into banana highs at times all winter and it's yet to happen. I have to assume there is something in the underlying physics that causes that. JB mentioned the same error. I have seen systems cut between just a sliver daylight between two big highs. I also have seen big highs exit quickly. But some of the stuff shown lately just seems so counterintuitive. A great example is how far south the ice line has trended. It was just north of the Ohio River. Now it is running though sought KY. My suspicion is that this cold finds its way to the Plateau and then banks west of the Apps. Might take several storms for this to occur, but I like that option. I like this pattern. Maybe I won't in the end...but truly being near the boundary between cold and precip is interesting to follow. Also, modeling is VERY prone to big shifts even in the medium range right now. So, I think any solution that appears locked-ed at d5...might not be. And yeah, sometimes it is like modeling doesn't see the NAO block and then it is like....whoa, better fix that solution once it finally "sees" it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 The ICON is all in on a big winter event for at least the western 2/3rds of the state. Possibly ice on the east side but not sure yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 Yep, Plateau west sees snow and the eastern valley is freezing rain most likely. The ICON on TT only shows rain or snow. But the temp is sub 32 basically everywhere but the eastern mountains. Over 1 inch of QPF with Temps in the upper 20s to near 30 in the east. Temps as precip arrives. During. Then as it exits. Precip panels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 GFS has a monster winter storm in Texas. Used to be money in the bank here. We will see where it goes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 20s under the ZR. Teens and high singles to the west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 We just can't get the cold air past the plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 Warm nose from hades. Much harder to actually raise temps with precip falling than is likely being modeled here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 Basically after tomorrow the western 2/3rds of the state stays near to well below freezing. Nashville west spends about a week in the deep freeze with snow, sleet and ZR. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 V16 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I have a feeling this one is going to be very frustrating to watch for those of us East of the Plateau. That SE ridge just isn’t going to allow the cold air into the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 The Canadian has a completely different take and only gives a glancing blow but it's snow. All models have the ice over the next few days. All have the big storm early next week. All are slightly different for it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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