Carvers Gap Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 To balance out the effort, the 12z CMC is basically the opposite of US modeling right now. The 12z GFS, though, is about to bring the final hammer with the cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I’m totally lost. Sunday it’s supposed to be 55 and sunny here in Mid TN the forecast says. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 The 12z Para-GFS already has a foot over middle TN at 200 with the event still ongoing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, Matthew70 said: I’m totally lost. Sunday it’s supposed to be 55 and sunny here in Mid TN the forecast says. 12z US modeling has just changed. We will see if they get support from other modeling....Forecasters will be very conservative until these runs get support. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 The 12z regular GFS is bringing temps to -16 to -17F along the TN/KY border in middle TN late next weekend. Obviously, that is WAY out there but if we get snow pack and the cold lurking in the eastern Plains, that is possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 So now we wait to see if US modeling has support. The para-GFS looks like it is cooking up yet another winter storm just inside of d10. It may be toying with a Euro-lite version from the other day. The 12z CMC is much lighter with its qpf. So there are two total plausible runs. One shows how to whiff and one shows how to score. I do like that the GFS seems to have had the hotter hand of late - especially the para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 The 12z para-GFS is just going nuts. Frame that run. Crazy. Not saying that verifies...but wild, wild multi-day over-running event. Overall accumulation map is pretty will as well...think it doesn't go past 240 or it would be more due to the storm just after 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Well I had planned on washing my vehicles in 55 and sunny this weekend lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Looks like the UKMET is coming north a bit for the Sunday system (the one that goes out to hr 144 on pivotal). 0z on the left and 12z on the right: The other one I post won't be finished running for a bit, but I will post that one too later, just to see if the newer UKMET is different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, Matthew70 said: Well I had planned on washing my vehicles in 55 and sunny this weekend lol You may still get to yet! LOL. I am not ruling out any scenario. Mine need washing as well. Just got it done last weekend, and now have salt all over them again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, Carvers Gap said: You may still get to yet! LOL. I am not ruling out any scenario. Mine need washing as well. Just got it done last weekend, and now have salt all over them again. Trust me I would rather them be covered in snow! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Well I had planned on washing my vehicles in 55 and sunny this weekend lol If the para is even half right, there will be PLENTY of car washing coming up the next 2-3 weeks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Be nice if the King Euro jumped on board 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 15 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Be nice if the King Euro jumped on board Without a doubt! How has everyone down your way recovered since the tornadoes? It seems like eons ago, yet it was only back in March of last year... :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Does anyone have the accumulation map for Para-GFS? I’m having a hard time getting it to load. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, Vol4Life said: Does anyone have the accumulation map for Para-GFS? I’m having a hard time getting it to load. You want the whole run, or a specific time frame? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: You want the whole run, or a specific time frame? Request for the entire run here. Pivotal goes to 240...can you get more? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Without a doubt! How has everyone down your way recovered since the tornadoes? It seems like eons ago, yet it was only back in March of last year... :-( Thanks for asking. Most in Nashville have recovered. Mt. Juliet is mostly recovered. Cookeville will be awhile for most. My brothers house is done. A few of his neighbors houses are built but not in theirs yet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: You want the whole run, or a specific time frame? If you have the whole run, that would be great! Thanks Holston! I’ve never really paid attention to the Para until the last several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I’m still in shock that 55 and sunny on Sunday could be opposite so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 @Carvers Gap all I have is pivotal too, weathermodels doesn't have snow totals for the para and true weather doesn't have it at all: 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Is Para Spanish for DGEX? 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 [mention=769]Carvers Gap[/mention] all I have is pivotal too, weathermodels doesn't have snow totals for the para and true weather doesn't have it at all:EURO a couple of days ago . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I’d say this is a pretty good signal for a storm. GEFS precip panels for hour 66 and 72 at 12z. I’d expect the Euro to move toward this. Forecasts likely be changing later today. . 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Most GEFS Members are on board with something as well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: I’d say this is a pretty good signal for a storm. GEFS precip panels for hour 66 and 72 at 12z. I’d expect the Euro to move toward this. Forecasts likely be changing later today. . That’s pretty amazing actually. You don’t see that much consensus very often..even if it’s just the ensembles of 1 global model. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Hr 72-96 all winter long has had major changes occur at 500...this seems par for the course so far. Ride the ensembles until within hr 48. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Not sure who is feeling froggy, but we likely need to jump on a last minute thread dedicated to Sunday. Even if it ends up a miss................ the signal is there and growing stronger. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Euro just started up on TrueWeather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 12z Euro has initialized. We won't have to wait long to see if it's moved in a positive direction. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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