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February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.


John1122
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So now we wait to see if US modeling has support.  The para-GFS looks like it is cooking up yet another winter storm just inside of d10.  It may be toying with a Euro-lite version from the other day.  The 12z CMC is much lighter with its qpf.  So there are two total plausible runs.  One shows how to whiff and one shows how to score.  I do like that the GFS seems to have had the hotter hand of late - especially the para.

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6 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Without a doubt!  How has everyone down your way recovered since the tornadoes?  It seems like eons ago, yet it was only back in March of last year... :-(

Thanks for asking.  Most in Nashville have recovered.  Mt. Juliet is mostly recovered.  Cookeville will be awhile for most.  My brothers house is done.  A few of his neighbors houses are built but not in theirs yet. 

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4 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I’d say this is a pretty good signal for a storm. GEFS precip panels for hour 66 and 72 at 12z. I’d expect the Euro to move toward this. Forecasts likely be changing later today.

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That’s pretty amazing actually.   You don’t see that much consensus very often..even if it’s just the ensembles of 1 global model.

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