Ahoff Posted January 27 Just now, paweather said: Yeah EURO/CMC dies the primary early and transfers. Whereas the GFS keeps the Primary alive longer where you would have a better shot to up those totals. CMC looked good though. GFS switches us to rain, so really a tough set up for Pittsburgh, always is. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
daxx Posted January 27 I know you all know I hate snowfall maps, but when you see a decent amount of snow to the southeast and northwest of the heaviest axis that is great look. We usually see very little to the southeast. I'm all in for now. Lol! 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wmsptwx Posted January 27 Never trust a Miller B lol. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Itstrainingtime Posted January 27 1 minute ago, daxx said: I know you all know I hate snowfall maps, but when you see a decent amount of snow to the southeast and northwest of the heaviest axis that is great look. We usually see very little to the southeast. I'm all in for now. Lol! This! I've been saying for some time that I don't want to be near the edge, especially the southern edge. Thing is...I think there's an upside to this for our area. I'm not sure that the maps show the best case scenario. (caveat - it could also go the other way) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Itstrainingtime Posted January 27 Just now, Wmsptwx said: Never trust a Miller B lol. You're the perfect one to say this at the perfect time. I've created "A Day In The Life of Central PA" threads that accurately depict comments like this. You're absolutely right, by the way. And I for one will NOT forget this over the coming days. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
daxx Posted January 27 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: This! I've been saying for some time that I don't want to be near the edge, especially the southern edge. Thing is...I think there's an upside to this for our area. I'm not sure that the maps show the best case scenario. (caveat - it could also go the other way) Yes! Exactly... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MAG5035 Posted January 27 6 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Ugly hole in Pittsburgh, but moving towards a better solution. If the Euro didn't kill off the WAA precip from the primary low as fast as it's been doing we'd have a much more uniform swath of snow across the state. It's not that far off from what the Canadian has until the transfer. Euro's getting over to the coastal faster and the coastal starts off stronger further down the coast. They hang the low in pretty similar spots with the Euro stronger and a bit tighter to the coast. The overall storm scenario is still quite workable for everyone. 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
pasnownut Posted January 27 10 minutes ago, daxx said: I know you all know I hate snowfall maps, but when you see a decent amount of snow to the southeast and northwest of the heaviest axis that is great look. We usually see very little to the southeast. I'm all in for now. Lol! Thats why i posted. Its called wiggle room and as you know, some of us dont often get that (and still may not as its 4 days out). Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
pasnownut Posted January 27 Just now, MAG5035 said: If the Euro didn't kill off the WAA precip from the primary low as fast as it's been doing we'd have a much more uniform swath of snow across the state. It's not that far off from what the Canadian has until the transfer. Euro's getting over to the coastal faster and the coastal starts off stronger further down the coast. They hang the low in pretty similar spots with the Euro stronger and a bit tighter to the coast. The overall storm scenario is still quite workable for everyone. 0z had 999mb and 12 had 992 just a tick south @ OBX. My gut says thats part of what we saw today. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sauss06 Posted January 27 10 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Never trust a Miller B lol. i'm usually wrong, but wasn't the last good miller B we had was the 2003 Prez day storm? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
anotherman Posted January 27 I think it was February 10, 2010. 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paweather Posted January 27 22 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Never trust a Miller B lol. I agree this is going to be a nail biter right up to when it starts. I feel like we are going to have a swing down on the models for maybe one run or so. But the good news is if we can get a good initial thump from the Primary and the transfer doesn't go well we still win. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Superstorm Posted January 27 Love that EPS mean.. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sauss06 Posted January 27 Just now, anotherman said: I think it was February 10, 2010. see, i told you I'm normally wrong Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MAG5035 Posted January 27 You guys should get excited when I put these particular maps out. -4 to greater than -6 standard deviation 850mb U-wind anomaly (40-60kt eastern jet) aiming into the Mid-Atlantic and eventually southern/eastern PA. One of my big storm benchmarks. This def makes me somewhat suspect of some of the lower QPF between the transferring lows. Hr 126 Hr 144 8 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ahoff Posted January 27 23 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: If the Euro didn't kill off the WAA precip from the primary low as fast as it's been doing we'd have a much more uniform swath of snow across the state. It's not that far off from what the Canadian has until the transfer. Euro's getting over to the coastal faster and the coastal starts off stronger further down the coast. They hang the low in pretty similar spots with the Euro stronger and a bit tighter to the coast. The overall storm scenario is still quite workable for everyone. No doubt. I still feel like there's a decent chance. This year seems things have trended better for my area in setups like this. Hoping that continues. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paweather Posted January 27 9 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Love that EPS mean. . This! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paweather Posted January 27 We are closing in on the NAM'S RANGE lol. Not quite but we have the 84hr look to enjoy. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bubbler86 Posted January 27 2 hours ago, paweather said: As others said good to see you back. Thanks. I am just glad you kept your America Team icon. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paweather Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Thanks. I am just glad you kept your America Team icon. HAHA. Well that was a tough one this year. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bubbler86 Posted January 27 Just now, paweather said: HAHA. Well that was a tough one this year. I am usually not so easy on them but hard to fault anyone with not having real practice time and so many injuries this year. The one thing I think we learned is that Tom Brady is fairly amazing. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paweather Posted January 27 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I am usually not so easy on them but hard to fault anyone with not having real practice time and so many injuries this year. The one thing I think we learned is that Tom Brady is fairly amazing. No doubt. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paweather Posted January 27 18z ICON was pretty good, OK GFS let's not disappoint. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Voyager Posted January 27 So I'm flying out 11:15am on Sunday. Looking at most of the models, I may get out, and my ride gets home, before the snow breaks out. (edited to add other than the GFS which brings precip in earlier than the others...) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paweather Posted January 27 I competition of 2 model camps even though we still get a good thump with the Primary. GFS and EURO/CMC are so different. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paweather Posted January 27 18z still shows a strong backend thump as well. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Itstrainingtime Posted January 27 GFS is sending the primary towards Pittsburgh. Verbatim, the southern tier sees a LOT of mixing. QPF totals don't look especially high given the slow development and track of the coastal. It's pretty strung out. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
anotherman Posted January 27 The GFS looks like shit. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paweather Posted January 27 Not total shit but again in a different camp. Give us more snow then last year alone. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Atomixwx Posted January 27 46 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: GFS is sending the primary towards Pittsburgh. Verbatim, the southern tier sees a LOT of mixing. QPF totals don't look especially high given the slow development and track of the coastal. It's pretty strung out. I mean, I said Cleveland earlier... Lol Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
