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MAG5035

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

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Just now, paweather said:

Yeah EURO/CMC dies the primary early and transfers. Whereas the GFS keeps the Primary alive longer where you would have a better shot to up those totals. 

CMC looked good though.  GFS switches us to rain, so really a tough set up for Pittsburgh, always is.

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I know you all know I hate snowfall maps, but when you see a decent amount of snow to the southeast and northwest of the heaviest axis that is great look. We usually see very little to the southeast. I'm all in for now. Lol!

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1 minute ago, daxx said:

I know you all know I hate snowfall maps, but when you see a decent amount of snow to the southeast and northwest of the heaviest axis that is great look. We usually see very little to the southeast. I'm all in for now. Lol!

This! I've been saying for some time that I don't want to be near the edge, especially the southern edge. 

Thing is...I think there's an upside to this for our area. I'm not sure that the maps show the best case scenario. (caveat - it could also go the other way)

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

This! I've been saying for some time that I don't want to be near the edge, especially the southern edge. 

Thing is...I think there's an upside to this for our area. I'm not sure that the maps show the best case scenario. (caveat - it could also go the other way)

Yes! Exactly...

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6 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Ugly hole in Pittsburgh, but moving towards a better solution.

If the Euro didn't kill off the WAA precip from the primary low as fast as it's been doing we'd have a much more uniform swath of snow across the state. It's not that far off from what the Canadian has until the transfer. Euro's getting over to the coastal faster and the coastal starts off stronger further down the coast. They hang the low in pretty similar spots with the Euro stronger and a bit tighter to the coast. The overall storm scenario is still quite workable for everyone. 

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10 minutes ago, daxx said:

I know you all know I hate snowfall maps, but when you see a decent amount of snow to the southeast and northwest of the heaviest axis that is great look. We usually see very little to the southeast. I'm all in for now. Lol!

Thats why i posted.  Its called wiggle room and as you know, some of us dont often get that (and still may not as its 4 days out).  

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Just now, MAG5035 said:

If the Euro didn't kill off the WAA precip from the primary low as fast as it's been doing we'd have a much more uniform swath of snow across the state. It's not that far off from what the Canadian has until the transfer. Euro's getting over to the coastal faster and the coastal starts off stronger further down the coast. They hang the low in pretty similar spots with the Euro stronger and a bit tighter to the coast. The overall storm scenario is still quite workable for everyone. 

0z had 999mb

and 12 had 992 just a tick south @ OBX

My gut says thats part of what we saw today.

 

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22 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Never trust a Miller B lol.

I agree this is going to be a nail biter right up to when it starts. I feel like we are going to have a swing down on the models for maybe one run or so. But the good news is if we can get a good initial thump from the Primary and the transfer doesn't go well we still win. 

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You guys should get excited when I put these particular maps out. -4 to greater than -6 standard deviation 850mb U-wind anomaly (40-60kt eastern jet) aiming into the Mid-Atlantic and eventually southern/eastern PA. One of my big storm benchmarks. This def makes me somewhat suspect of some of the lower QPF between the transferring lows. 

Hr 126

ecmwfued-uwn--usne-126-C-850uwnstd_2021012712_whitecounty.thumb.png.477069e0d3b6e438fe466907d6221117.png

 

Hr 144

ecmwfued-uwn--usne-144-C-850uwnstd_2021012712_whitecounty.thumb.png.18a0c502587d740cb87c570e42173d43.png

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23 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

If the Euro didn't kill off the WAA precip from the primary low as fast as it's been doing we'd have a much more uniform swath of snow across the state. It's not that far off from what the Canadian has until the transfer. Euro's getting over to the coastal faster and the coastal starts off stronger further down the coast. They hang the low in pretty similar spots with the Euro stronger and a bit tighter to the coast. The overall storm scenario is still quite workable for everyone. 

No doubt.  I still feel like there's a decent chance.  This year seems things have trended better for my area in setups like this.  Hoping that continues.

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Just now, paweather said:

HAHA. Well that was a tough one this year. 

I am usually not so easy on them but hard to fault anyone with not having real practice time and so many injuries this year.  The one thing I think we learned is that Tom Brady is fairly amazing.  

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So I'm flying out 11:15am on Sunday. Looking at most of the models, I may get out, and my ride gets home, before the snow breaks out.

(edited to add other than the GFS which brings precip in earlier than the others...)

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46 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

GFS is sending the primary towards Pittsburgh. Verbatim, the southern tier sees a LOT of mixing. QPF totals don't look especially high given the slow development and track of the coastal. It's pretty strung out. 

I mean, I said Cleveland earlier... Lol

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