• Member Statistics

    16,545
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    acibarich
    Newest Member
    acibarich
    Joined
MAG5035

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

Recommended Posts

51 minutes ago, paweather said:

Let’s go 0z.

The 0z NAMs get a decent front end thump of snow into CTP Monday night and then transition to a wintry mix by Tuesday morning.

Here is the front end snow thump as it moves into the LSV Monday evening on the 3k & 12k 0z NAM.

 

 

589EBABA-E57C-404E-8A9C-5BF60D8A171B.png

21DE8E73-85E6-4A5D-95AE-B731A0F51FA3.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

Yes, compared to 18Z, snowfall on both NAMS increased on 0Z.

Here are the 0z NAM 3k & 12k snow maps.

The 3k still has precip going at the end of the 60 hour run which is a mix for most of us at that point.

 

915786B3-C925-49E3-A42D-D8348B2D50DD.png

72B58ED4-BD6F-49BA-9887-B602B0E575E2.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You really have to love the entire run of the 18Z GFS.  There appears to be at least 3 more snowfalls in the second half of the run.  The best news really is that a few days ago the model had a significant warmup hitting us after Feb 1st.  Now it has totally changed with the majority of the 15 days cold.  The coldest air of the season with 850's around -20C arrive here on D14, Feb 8th.  Have to say a very encouraging run overall.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

You really have to love the entire run of the 18Z GFS.  There appears to be at least 3 more snowfalls in the second half of the run.  The best news really is that a few days ago the model had a significant warmup hitting us after Feb 1st.  Now it has totally changed with the majority of the 15 days cold.  The coldest air of the season with 850's around -20C arrive here on D14, Feb 8th.  Have to say a very encouraging run overall.

That was a great 18z GFS run. The end of the run looks very cold as you mentioned. Multiple winter storm chances and even 1 more threat moving into the central states at the end of the run that would hit us the following day or 2.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

You really have to love the entire run of the 18Z GFS.  There appears to be at least 3 more snowfalls in the second half of the run.  The best news really is that a few days ago the model had a significant warmup hitting us after Feb 1st.  Now it has totally changed with the majority of the 15 days cold.  The coldest air of the season with 850's around -20C arrive here on D14, Feb 8th.  Have to say a very encouraging run overall.

Just great. The 8th is my birthday and I was going to have a big picnic and pool party that day...

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 0z GFS run gets decent snow into the southern third of PA for the Thursday event. Just as @Itstrainingtime has mentioned, this is right where we want it to be at this range. Plenty of time for a slight north trend to get us in the jackpot zone closer to game time.

 

B62504CA-85B0-4691-A875-0B241113B8B6.png

A54DCDB7-0623-46A3-AB4D-373C179EA1AE.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Hopefully the 12z runs juice back up the Monday night & Tuesday event so we can get a decent front end s pa thump before we mix.

Nam coming in strong glancing at ma forum.   WPC showing .50” to .75” contour for sw pa over to about me.   Hopefully things juice up a little more.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, paweather said:

NAM looking good for a thump before turn.

The best part of both of the 12z NAM runs is that the best snow totals are from the southern tier of PA and to the south in MD.

Still over 36 hours to go for a small bump north to get most of us back in the good snow thump by game time.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

12z GFS for Thursday is Ryan Howard in his final years with the Phillies.

Swing and a miss.

I think we've lost just about every model now.

I'm so glad I booked a second trip to the Tug!  It is a great stress reliever. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't often disagree with CTP on being too high on snow amounts but that's where I'm at today. Just don't think the 3-6" area is going to cover a majority of the CWA and almost all of the guidance is way more limited. We need the heavier precip up front to get anywhere near those numbers, otherwise this is looking like a T-2" with a messy mix for most with a narrow 3-5" swath somewhere. There seems to be a split between the heavier WAA precip (what we need for the front end snow) staying south and the precip with dying parent low staying somewhat north.  The only thing that really supports what CTP has out and has a better push of the WAA precip into the area so for today is the NAM/SREF. It looks like CTP is going fairly close with the SREF with a bit less than that in the southern tier.

sref-all-mean-pennsylvania-total_snow_10to1-1694800.thumb.png.6b404b4f7ba2c9e079c693c09a735c6f.pngStormTotalSnow.thumb.png.b1e865d6e983094e04e0d7bd94323aad.png

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

I don't often disagree with CTP on being too high on snow amounts but that's where I'm at today. Just don't think the 3-6" area is going to cover a majority of the CWA and almost all of the guidance is way more limited. We need the heavier precip up front to get anywhere near those numbers, otherwise this is looking like a T-2" with a messy mix for most with a narrow 3-5" swath somewhere. There seems to be a split between the heavier WAA precip (what we need for the front end snow) staying south and the precip with dying parent low staying somewhat north.  The only thing that really supports what CTP has out and has a better push of the WAA precip into the area so for today is the NAM/SREF. It looks like CTP is going fairly close with the SREF with a bit less than that in the southern tier.

sref-all-mean-pennsylvania-total_snow_10to1-1694800.thumb.png.6b404b4f7ba2c9e079c693c09a735c6f.pngStormTotalSnow.thumb.png.b1e865d6e983094e04e0d7bd94323aad.png

 

 

 

I was going to dust off the SREF and post it a little earlier! Maybe this old school model will pull out the win for this storm?

Hopefully the short range models will lock back in to the juicer WAA front end look that they had showed previously over the last few days. 
We still have over 24 hours until the event begins, so there is time for another adjustment.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don’t worry everyone...if the 2 events fizzle out this week, the models have begun to focus on another Miller B type of event next Sunday or Monday.

This blocking pattern has to payoff at some point right!?!?

Here is the 12z Euro for the potential event next Early next week.

 

FA5463B9-E6B5-4B82-BAA4-0856200CCC21.png

0AAB3AB0-BA93-41AB-B27E-46558CFA88CF.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, paweather said:

Hate being fringed.

This is not fully decided yet. There are still over 24 hours to go before the event begins and we are still in the game. It won’t take much to get the early week event back to a 3 inch plus snow event for many of us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.