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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2020/2021 OBS Thread

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On 1/17/2021 at 5:21 PM, ChescoWx said:

Of course most spots including here in Chester County are still at above normal snowfall for the season to date.... which in a year which should end up with below normal snow....is not a bad thing.  We are not done with snow this season....keep the faith!

This winter sucks. It's not all about snowfall. Using your logic we could have above temps and no snow (Dec/Jan/Feb) through mid March then a 30" storm so we're above avg snowfall and had a great winter?

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Jan 27-Feb 7 give or take a day either side. At least 3 threats. 

Just 10 days away right. Somebody got their optimism vaccine eh.

 

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46 minutes ago, Animal said:

Failure is this winter.

sick and tired of being  I got 2 inches of snow above the lines.

anyone that things this winter normal fu

 

 

Oh it sucks alright, should have punted but meh 5 more days left in my lack of snow pandemic extension. The only thing left on the table for us is snow on the backside as the blocking begins to recede, or Ralphs eleven days of winter 1/27-2/7.

 

 

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Just now, RedSky said:

Oh it sucks alright, should have punted but meh 5 more days left in my lack of snow pandemic extension. The only thing left on the table for us is snow on the backside as the blocking begins to recede, or Ralphs ten days of winter 1/27-2/7.

 

 

Bro it’s awful...sick and tired of Ralph and Paul tell okay.

Ralph is a mess that lives in a bungalow.

I respect Paul for his stuff.

 

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The holidays looks promising, then the period immediately after them Jan 4, then a window was open for Jan 8-10, that got pushed to the 12-13th then the 16-17th, have patience 24-25th is going to get it done this time but nah too much west coast troughing which came out of nowhere let's try the 27-28th 

oops more like Jan 30-31st 

 

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25 minutes ago, Animal said:

Bro it’s awful...sick and tired of Ralph and Paul tell okay.

Ralph is a mess that lives in a bungalow.

I respect Paul for his stuff.

 

Ditto. Paul is a good friend and adds alot to the group discussion.

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13 minutes ago, Animal said:

Ralph no fun talk snow..I am a really person n..yup 

What??

Is this weenie lingo? Is it in the handbook?

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Took out the Sunday night trash and since I've been sitting on my ass for 7-8hrs+ watching football I decided to take a walk. Low and behold my snow mound still exist (31+ days).  Never would have thought....

38F 

2.jpg

1.jpg

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I know I’m getting older and maybe my memory is starting to slip, but as I recall 1996 was a very different winter.

I think PENNDOT is going to have a lot of leftover salt and Greenskeeper is going to have a lot of leftover weenies.

 37F, cloudy 

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6 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I know I’m getting older and maybe my memory is starting to slip, but as I recall 1996 was a very different winter.

I think PENNDOT is going to have a lot of leftover salt and Greenskeeper is going to have a lot of leftover weenies.

 37F, cloudy 

When he makes his next post he'll probably pick up about another dozen or so, lol.

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13 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I know I’m getting older and maybe my memory is starting to slip, but as I recall 1996 was a very different winter.

I think PENNDOT is going to have a lot of leftover salt and Greenskeeper is going to have a lot of leftover weenies.

 37F, cloudy 

Never! He serves during all events. Snow, sleet, cold, heat, T'storms, flying cows, you name it..24/7!

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Glenn at 11:20am, Philly 5F above average so far for the month of Jan. Didn't think it was that high which makes me think I'm getting accustomed to sucking....

42F 

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The all shiny new GFS we start using next month with all that fresh new model smell, it snows in NW Florida on groundhog day morn :yikes:

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Early season snow south in Virginia and Carolinas and groundhog day snow in Florida is a MUST for the weenie handbook please lets do this.

 

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Pummeled, crushed and obliterated on the EPS ensembles. Go time, this was worth the wait, and saves winter all rolled into one. What could possibly go wrong?

 

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Next week into late month beginning to light up on the ensembles with a few chances for winter weather...probably the most legit ens means storm clustering and snowfall means I've seen at this range since the mid Dec storm.

First threat is Tuesday. Blocking migrates into the Baffin Bay region with a west-based -NAO. Trof centered along the west coast with a flat broad trof extending SW->NE across the country. This is the look of a gradient pattern or overunning SWFE with waves coming out of the Southwest and riding the gradient to the Midwest then being forced under the blocking and following the gradient W->E from there. It actually looks to be the catalyst for several systems/waves moving out of the Southwest before a transient PNA pops later on providing an even greater potential for a winter storm. 

But first things first. You can see on the GEFS H5 map clearly the first s/w ejecting out of the Southwest on Sunday. The block is in a good position and still rather strong. Meanwhile a potential 50/50 low is in ideal position.

20210118_205136.png

At the surface on the GEFS means, the primary gets to the Ohio Valley when it feels the block to the North and is forced to continue East (even ESE on some op runs) and off the coast. This sets up a fairly decent CAD signature and will spell messy frozen precip for whoever is on the N side of the gradient. Exact track and precip types should become more clear 2nd half of the week. For now, just know the GEFS have a pretty good look and several op runs have also shown good potential with this first wave ejecting out of the Southwest.

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_32.png

The EPS are generally in-line with the GEFS. Sysyem moves out of the Southwest and follows the trof SW->NE before feeling the block and being forced under the region. It is usually a good sign when both major ens means are signaling a winter weather event for the region, even if varying slightly on strength, track, and precip amts. The important thing for now is that the pattern is changing and we are likely to get some positive effects from the block over Baffin Bay finally. Patience paying off?

ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_9.png

ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_9.png

Also on both ens means are signs of a followup wave emerging out of the Southern Rockies on the heels of the Tuesday system. Too far out but there have been signs for a while that I noted last week where the PNA attempts to briefly go positive enough to *maybe* allow one of these screaming NS waves to amplify just enough for another storm. Again, ens are varying on how that would play out, but the signals are positive that as we head into late month and early Feb we will continue to have legit tracking chances, at the very least. I still believe this period holds some of the better potential of the season thus far. 

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6 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Same here. So that's all it takes to get snow to fall around here--full sun. 34F.

It was a magical event. It will stick w/me for a lifetime.

Sunny/35F...5 minutes later.

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